Markets are heading into the last week of August with an unusually crowded risk calendar. The question is no longer simply whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates, but whether inflation, long-term yields and economic resilience are making the next move harder to predict. U.S. PCE inflation and the second estimate of Q2 GDP arrive on Wednesday, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday could reshape expectations heading into the September FOMC meeting.
At the same time, NVIDIA’s earnings will put the AI rally under a microscope, while Australia’s July CPI, Germany’s ifo survey and the Bank of Korea’s policy decision add fresh signals from Asia and Europe. With U.S. 30-year Treasury yields recently reaching 5.34% and geopolitical tensions keeping oil markets volatile, the interaction between rates, inflation and risk appetite could make this one of the most important weeks of the month for the dollar, equities, gold and bonds.
Key Points to Watch
U.S. PCE Inflation & GDP
Wednesday’s PCE inflation data and second estimate of Q2 GDP will be the week’s most important macro releases, shaping expectations for the Fed’s September policy decision.
Jackson Hole & the Fed
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s keynote speech on Friday could provide fresh clues on inflation, financial conditions and the path of monetary policy.
NVIDIA Earnings
NVIDIA’s fiscal Q2 results on Wednesday will be a major test for AI demand, semiconductor stocks and the broader technology rally.
Australia CPI & Bank of Korea
Australia’s July CPI and the Bank of Korea’s policy decision will provide important signals for Asian inflation, interest rates and regional currencies.
Dollar, Yields & Gold
Changes in U.S. inflation and Fed expectations could drive Treasury yields and the dollar, with major implications for gold, equities and global FX.
U.S. Economy: PCE and GDP Set the Macro Direction
Wednesday will deliver the week’s central U.S. macro test. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release July Personal Income and Outlays, including the PCE price index, together with the second estimate of Q2 GDP on 26 August at 8:30 a.m. EDT. The combination matters because PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, while the GDP revision will show whether underlying economic momentum is stronger or weaker than initially estimated.
The market reaction will depend on the combination rather than either figure alone. Hotter inflation with resilient growth would strengthen the case for keeping policy restrictive and could push Treasury yields and the dollar higher. Softer inflation alongside weaker growth would do the opposite, potentially supporting bonds, gold and rate-sensitive equities. With the September FOMC meeting approaching, Wednesday’s data could materially change how traders interpret Friday’s Jackson Hole speech.
Fed & Jackson Hole: Warsh Faces a High-Stakes Market
The Federal Reserve takes centre stage again on Friday when Chair Kevin Warsh delivers keynote remarks at the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. The symposium runs from 27–29 August, with Warsh scheduled to speak on 28 August. His comments come after a period of heightened disagreement inside the Fed and a sharp rise in long-term Treasury yields, making markets particularly sensitive to any discussion of inflation, financial conditions, productivity or the appropriate stance of monetary policy.
Investors are unlikely to need an explicit rate signal for markets to react. A message emphasising persistent inflation risks or the need to maintain restrictive policy could push yields and the dollar higher while weighing on growth stocks and gold. A more balanced assessment of inflation and economic activity could ease pressure on bonds and support risk assets, particularly if Wednesday’s PCE report has already strengthened expectations for eventual easing.
Equities: NVIDIA Becomes the AI Rally’s Biggest Test
NVIDIA reports its second-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Wednesday, 26 August, with the conference call scheduled for 5:00 p.m. ET. The company has guided investors to a major increase in revenue, while its most recent results showed exceptionally strong data-center demand. That makes the report important not only for NVDA but also for semiconductor stocks, AI infrastructure companies and the broader Nasdaq.
The key issue will be forward guidance rather than the headline earnings number alone. Investors will look at data-center demand, margins, future capital spending and the trajectory of AI infrastructure investment. A strong result and constructive outlook could reinforce the equity rally, but high expectations mean even a headline beat may not be enough. A disappointing guide could trigger a broader reassessment of AI valuations at a time when rising bond yields are already making long-duration equities more vulnerable.
Europe & FX: Germany’s Business Climate in Focus
Europe has a quieter calendar, but Germany’s August ifo Business Climate Index on Tuesday will offer a timely indication of whether corporate sentiment is continuing to recover. The report is scheduled for 25 August at 10:30 CET/CEST. The July index rose to 86.6 from 85.7 in June, while expectations improved more strongly, suggesting some stabilisation even though business conditions remained fragile.
The euro’s reaction will depend heavily on whether Germany’s data reinforce or challenge the broader recovery narrative. A stronger ifo reading could support EUR/USD by improving expectations for European growth, while a weak result would leave the currency more dependent on U.S. rate differentials. In practice, Treasury yields remain the bigger near-term driver for major FX pairs, meaning a hawkish Fed message could still strengthen the dollar even if European data improve.
Asia-Pacific: Australia CPI and Korea Take the Lead
Australia’s July CPI is scheduled for 26 August at 11:30 a.m. AEST. The previous monthly release showed annual inflation at 3.8% in June, down from 4.0% in May, so the new data will help determine whether price pressures are continuing to ease or becoming persistent again. The result could influence expectations for the RBA and therefore the Australian dollar and local bond yields.
South Korea will provide another monetary-policy signal on Thursday, with the Bank of Korea scheduled to announce its interest-rate decision on 27 August. Markets currently have the policy rate at 2.75%, making the decision relevant for the won, Korean bonds and broader Asian risk sentiment. Japan will also remain on the radar as investors monitor scheduled Bank of Japan releases ahead of its September policy meeting.
Oil and Gold Remain Sensitive to Rates
Gold enters the week with strong momentum but also greater sensitivity to real yields and dollar moves. Reuters reported that gold had risen more than 15% in August as investors responded to concerns around U.S. fiscal conditions, monetary policy and geopolitical risks. Any further rise in Treasury yields could challenge gold, while a softer inflation print or dovish Fed messaging could strengthen its appeal.
Oil remains another important source of cross-asset volatility. Brent crude was around $93 per barrel on 24 August as markets awaited further details on U.S. sanctions involving Iran and monitored risks around the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy prices could complicate the inflation outlook and make central banks more cautious, creating an additional upside risk for yields and a potential headwind for equities if the energy shock persists.
Conclusion
The week of 24–28 August brings together the three forces currently driving markets: inflation, monetary policy and the AI investment cycle. U.S. PCE and GDP will establish the macro backdrop, NVIDIA earnings will test whether technology valuations can withstand higher yields, and Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech could reset expectations before the September FOMC meeting.
The key question is whether markets are moving toward a softer inflation and easing narrative or a higher-for-longer regime. Hotter inflation, resilient growth and a hawkish Fed could lift yields and the dollar while pressuring gold and growth stocks. Softer inflation, weaker activity and a more accommodative policy tone could support bonds, gold and equities. With oil, long-term yields and AI expectations all elevated, the risk of sharp cross-asset moves remains high.
