West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil began the week on a stronger footing, climbing toward the $92.00 level on Monday Asian session, May 8, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reignited concerns over global energy supplies. The rebound helped the commodity recover from a two day decline, with traders closely monitoring developments that could further tighten crude markets.
Market sentiment shifted after renewed military activity between Israel and Iran reduced expectations for a near term peace agreement. Reports of additional Israeli strikes on military targets in Iran, combined with military operations in Lebanon and Iraq, have increased fears that the conflict could expand across the region. Concerns over disruptions to energy transportation routes, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, continue to provide underlying support for oil prices.
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important oil shipping corridors. Any prolonged disruption could significantly affect global crude supplies, prompting investors to maintain a risk premium in energy markets.
From a technical perspective, WTI remains at a critical turning point. Although prices have recovered, bullish momentum remains limited as crude continues to trade below the 200 period Simple Moving Average on the four hour chart. This level is acting as a major resistance zone and remains the key hurdle for buyers.
Supply Risks Return to Focus
Momentum indicators also suggest caution. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains slightly negative, indicating that bearish pressure has not fully disappeared. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is holding near 56, reflecting moderate buying interest but not yet signaling a strong bullish breakout.
A decisive move above the 200 period moving average near $95.40 would strengthen the bullish outlook and could open the door for further gains. Until then, traders may remain cautious about chasing prices higher.
On the downside, the most important support area lies between $86.00 and $86.50. If prices break below this zone, selling pressure could accelerate and potentially drive WTI back toward the $81.00 region, which marks a significant support level from earlier this year.
For now, geopolitical risks continue to support crude oil prices, but technical resistance remains a major challenge. The battle between supply concerns and market caution is likely to determine WTI’s next significant move.
