Global markets enter the final week of April in a strong risk-on environment, following a rapid recovery driven by easing geopolitical tensions and renewed confidence in equities. The extension of the ceasefire has supported sentiment, allowing major indices to reach new highs, while oil prices remain elevated, reflecting persistent supply risks.

At the same time, markets face a highly event-driven week, with multiple central bank decisions, key macroeconomic data releases, and major earnings reports. This combination is expected to test the sustainability of current market momentum, particularly as valuations remain elevated and inflation risks persist.

Key Points to Watch

• Central bank decisions: The Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and ECB all meet this week, with policy direction and forward guidance in focus.

• Mega-cap earnings: Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple report, with AI-driven growth expectations under scrutiny.

• US macro data: Q1 GDP, Core PCE, and labour market data will provide key signals on growth and inflation dynamics.

• Oil market developments: Elevated prices continue to reflect geopolitical risks and supply constraints.

• Labour market trends: Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will offer further insight into economic resilience.

Global Macro: Event-Driven Sentiment

Markets are transitioning from a geopolitical-driven narrative to a more event-driven environment. While the ceasefire extension has reduced immediate risk, underlying tensions remain, particularly in energy markets.

At the same time, inflation pressures linked to elevated oil prices continue to complicate the outlook. As a result, markets are increasingly sensitive to incoming data and policy signals that could shift expectations for interest rates and growth.

United States: Records and Policy Focus

US equities have reached new highs, supported by strong earnings and momentum in technology and AI-related sectors. However, the pace of the rally has pushed valuations higher, increasing sensitivity to macro data.

The Federal Reserve meeting will be closely monitored, particularly for signals around inflation and policy direction. Upcoming GDP and Core PCE data will be critical in assessing whether growth remains resilient or begins to soften under tighter financial conditions.

Europe & UK: Policy Uncertainty

Europe and the UK continue to face a challenging mix of weak growth and persistent inflation pressures. While markets expect policy to remain unchanged, forward guidance from both the ECB and Bank of England will be key.

Energy costs remain a central risk factor, with potential implications for both inflation and economic activity.

Asia-Pacific: Policy and Currency Dynamics

The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current stance, though any shift in inflation expectations could influence future policy direction. Currency markets remain sensitive to US dollar movements, while regional economies continue to face external demand pressures.

Commodities and Risk Sentiment

Oil remains elevated, driven by ongoing supply concerns, and continues to influence inflation expectations. Gold trades within a relatively stable range, balancing safe-haven demand against a firm US dollar.

Bond markets will respond to key data releases, particularly in the United States, where yields remain sensitive to both growth and inflation signals.

Conclusion

The coming week is one of the most event-driven of the year, with central bank decisions, macroeconomic data, and earnings all shaping market direction.

While sentiment remains supportive, elevated valuations and persistent macro risks suggest a more cautious approach. Volatility is likely to increase as markets react to new information, with a focus on policy signals and economic data.