SOXX and Intel Look Unstoppable
The SOXX, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the main benchmark for the sector, rose again yesterday for its 17th consecutive session. That fact alone says a lot, but for the record it is also the longest winning streak ever recorded. Previously, the index had managed 15 consecutive up sessions in late 2014, while historically it usually stalled after 8 or at most 9 green candles in a row.
As you can imagine, the chart has gone nearly vertical. You can easily look it up online, but to save you the effort, the stock we are discussing today has a chart that looks very similar to the index—almost identical over the past few weeks. INTEL has exploded higher. With a forward P/E of 94x, it currently trades at by far the highest valuation multiple among index components—roughly 5x its own 10-year average.
In a landmark move last September, the Trump administration agreed to make an $8.9 billion investment in Intel common stock, becoming the company’s largest single shareholder with an approximately 10% stake. The rationale was primarily geopolitical: competition with China, the race for artificial intelligence, and the desire to strengthen domestic U.S. production of advanced semiconductors. Shortly afterward, Nvidia acquired an approximately 4% stake in Intel, while SoftBank also invested. Combined, these transactions brought Intel around $20 billion in cash, which was used partly to reduce debt and strengthen the balance sheet.
The stock’s performance tells the story of a dramatic turnaround. Intel closed yesterday at around $66.78, up 278% from its 2024 lows, with a market capitalization above $200 billion. Intel’s Q1 2026 earnings beat Wall Street expectations, with revenue rising more than 7%, suggesting the company is finally seeing tangible growth again, driven in part by strong demand for server chips used in AI data centers.
From a strategic standpoint, Intel is pursuing a dual path: competing directly in AI chips while simultaneously expanding its foundry business to manufacture chips for third parties. The Nvidia partnership—including co-developing custom x86 CPUs for Nvidia data centers—is viewed as a potential game changer that could validate Intel’s foundry ambitions and attract more external clients. Microsoft has reportedly already signed a deal worth $15 billion in lifetime value.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
On the daily chart, you can see the gap up left after the September 16–17 weekend, when the federal government’s and Nvidia’s involvement became public. Since then, the stock has steadily advanced within a fairly well-defined rising channel.
On January 21 this year, there was an attempted upside breakout and acceleration, but the move faded after only two sessions. Then on March 30, there was an attempted downside break of the channel—and, unsurprisingly, that move also proved false, triggering the powerful rally of recent weeks. The low on March 30 was $40.58. The high on April 17 was $70.26, a gain of 73% in a very short period of time. The static levels shown on the chart refer to support and resistance zones from 2021 and 2023, when the stock previously traded in those areas before reclaiming them recently.
Our base-case scenario now is that the stock likely needs a period of consolidation after such exceptional gains, potentially including a pullback. For Intel to continue its advance in a more orderly way, it would first need to move back inside the rising channel, which currently ranges between $47.75 and $59.50. Within that range also sit the 21-day and 50-day moving averages, currently at $57.05 and $50.28.At current levels, buying the stock today appears to mean paying a rather significant premium.
