Markets enter the final week of September with attention shifting from central-bank decisions to the economic data that will determine how markets interpret the new policy landscape. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% at its 15–16 September meeting, while its September projections put the median federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026 and median PCE inflation at 3.7%. The next FOMC meeting is not until 27–28 October, leaving incoming economic data as the main driver of expectations in the weeks ahead.
The final week of the quarter will bring a heavy U.S. data schedule, including JOLTS on Tuesday, GDP and Personal Income and Outlays on Wednesday, ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday, and the September Employment Situation on Friday. Europe will also provide an important inflation signal with the euro area’s September flash HICP estimate due on 2 October, while the U.K. will publish its revised second-quarter GDP figures on 30 September. In Asia-Pacific, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its latest policy decision on 29 September, followed by China’s official September PMI report on 30 September. The combination could create significant volatility across EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, gold, oil and copper.
Key Points to Watch
Federal Reserve and U.S. Data
JOLTS, third-quarter economic data revisions, PCE inflation and the September jobs report will provide the first major post-FOMC evidence on the U.S. economy.
RBA Policy Decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its September policy decision on Tuesday after keeping the cash rate at 4.35% in August.
Euro Area Inflation
The September euro-area flash inflation estimate on Friday will provide an important update after annual inflation reached 3.2% in August.
China PMI
China’s September manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI data on Wednesday will provide an early indication of fourth-quarter economic momentum.
U.K. GDP
The revised second-quarter GDP release on Wednesday will give markets a more complete assessment of the U.K. economy and provide another catalyst for sterling.
PCE Inflation and Jobs Take Centre Stage
The U.S. calendar will be the main source of market-moving economic data this week. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to release the third estimate of second-quarter GDP and August Personal Income and Outlays on Wednesday, 30 September at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The Personal Income and Outlays release contains the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE inflation measure, making it particularly relevant after the September FOMC meeting.
The latest available figures showed July PCE inflation at 3.7% year-on-year and core PCE inflation at 3.3%. The second estimate of second-quarter real GDP showed growth at a 1.5% annual rate, while real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased 4.2%. Wednesday’s revisions could therefore provide a clearer picture of both inflation and underlying domestic demand.
The week will then culminate in the September Employment Situation on Friday, 2 October at 8:30 a.m. ET. The August report showed nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 and the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, with average hourly earnings up 3.1% from a year earlier. Because the Fed’s next scheduled meeting is not until late October, changes in employment and wage conditions could become an important part of the market’s evolving expectations for future policy.
U.S. Economy: Labour Demand Before the Payrolls Report
Before Friday’s employment report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data on Tuesday, 29 September at 10:00 a.m. ET. JOLTS will provide an earlier look at labour demand, hiring and separations and will therefore help traders assess whether the labour market is losing momentum or remaining resilient ahead of the headline payrolls report.
The sequencing of this week’s releases is important. JOLTS will be followed by broader GDP and consumption data on Wednesday and the September ISM Manufacturing PMI on Thursday before Friday’s employment figures. A consistent set of stronger activity and labour-market data could keep U.S. yields elevated, while weaker readings could reinforce expectations that the Fed may have room to ease policy later in the year. The interaction between growth, inflation and employment will therefore matter more than any single release in isolation.
Europe & FX: Euro-Area Inflation and Sterling in Focus
The euro area will provide one of the week’s most important inflation releases on Friday, 2 October. Eurostat has scheduled the flash estimate of September inflation for that date. The August reading showed annual euro-area inflation at 3.2%, up from 2.9% in July, with energy prices making a significant contribution to the increase.
The September figure will arrive after the European Central Bank raised all three key interest rates by 25 basis points on 10 September, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65% and the marginal lending facility to 2.90%. The ECB’s September projections put headline inflation at 3.0% in 2026 and economic growth at 0.9%. A further increase in euro-area inflation could keep attention on the ECB’s inflation risks, while softer data would provide a different signal for expectations around the policy outlook. EUR/USD will also remain sensitive to changes in U.S. yields and the dollar following the U.S. data releases.
Sterling will receive another significant catalyst on Wednesday, 30 September, when the Office for National Statistics publishes the revised quarterly national accounts for April–June 2026. The first estimate showed U.K. real GDP grew 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, following 0.6% growth in the first quarter. The revised figures could influence expectations around the domestic growth outlook and the Bank of England, with GBP/USD also exposed to changes in U.S. rate expectations.
Asia-Pacific: RBA Decision and China PMI
Australia will be one of the most important Asia-Pacific markets this week as the Reserve Bank of Australia concludes its Monetary Policy Board meeting on Tuesday, 29 September. The official decision and statement are scheduled for 2:30 p.m. AEST, followed by Governor Michele Bullock’s media conference at 3:30 p.m. The cash rate currently stands at 4.35%, after the Board left it unchanged in August.
The RBA has maintained that inflation remains too high and that upside risks persist, with its August statement noting that higher energy and commodity prices linked to the Middle East conflict were contributing to inflation pressure. Australia’s CPI data for August are also scheduled for release on Wednesday, 30 September, creating an unusually close sequence of monetary-policy and inflation information. AUD/USD could therefore react to both the RBA’s policy communication and the inflation data that follow.
China will provide another major regional catalyst on Wednesday. The National Bureau of Statistics has scheduled its monthly Purchasing Managers’ Index report for 30 September at 9:30 a.m. local time. The release covers the official manufacturing, non-manufacturing and composite PMI measures and will provide an early indication of economic momentum heading into the fourth quarter.
The data will be particularly relevant for AUD/USD and industrial commodities. China’s official manufacturing PMI has remained close to the 50 threshold in recent months, making changes in production, new orders, employment and prices important for assessing domestic demand. A stronger reading could improve expectations for Chinese industrial activity, while weaker data could reinforce concerns about demand and place pressure on commodity-linked assets.
Global Activity: Manufacturing Signals Enter the Spotlight
The U.S. Institute for Supply Management will publish the September Manufacturing PMI on Thursday, 1 October at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time. ISM releases its manufacturing report on the first business day of each month, and the September report is confirmed for 1 October. The August Manufacturing PMI stood at 54.6%, while the Prices Index remained elevated at 71.1%.
The September report will therefore provide an important update on factory activity, new orders, employment and input-cost pressures after the recent rise in U.S. policy rates. The relationship between manufacturing activity and prices will be particularly important for markets because a combination of stronger activity and persistent price pressures could complicate the Fed’s policy outlook. Conversely, weaker manufacturing activity could strengthen the case that higher rates are weighing on demand.
Commodities: Gold, Oil and Copper in Focus
Gold will enter the week with the Federal Reserve’s September decision and projections still driving the broader rate narrative. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% and its September projections showed a 2026 median PCE inflation forecast of 3.7%, leaving inflation and real yields as important factors for bullion. The August PCE data due Wednesday will provide the next official inflation reading to test that outlook, while Friday’s employment report could affect Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. Gold could therefore see increased volatility as traders reassess the path of U.S. monetary policy.
Oil and copper will be more closely tied to the global growth narrative. EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report is released on Wednesday, providing the latest information on U.S. crude and petroleum inventories. EIA’s September outlook also noted that Brent prices had averaged $91 per barrel in August and that global inventories had declined by around 400 million barrels during 2026 up to that point. China and U.S. manufacturing data will add another layer for industrial commodities, with stronger activity potentially improving expectations for energy and copper demand.
Conclusion
This week will shift market attention from central-bank decisions to the economic data that could shape the next phase of monetary-policy expectations. In the U.S., JOLTS, PCE inflation, the GDP revision, ISM Manufacturing PMI and the September employment report will provide fresh signals on inflation, labour-market conditions and economic momentum. Europe will focus on euro-area inflation and revised U.K. GDP, while the RBA decision, Australia CPI and China’s PMI will provide key signals for Asia-Pacific markets.
For traders, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY will remain sensitive to changes in relative rate expectations, while gold will continue to track U.S. yields, inflation and the dollar. Oil and copper will be more closely linked to global growth, energy-market conditions and Chinese demand. With several major releases concentrated around month-end and quarter-end, the data could generate significant volatility across FX and commodities as markets assess the outlook for the final quarter of 2026.
