Gold prices remained broadly steady on Thursday, August 13, after rallying to a fresh two-month high in the previous session. The latest move came as softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve tightening, giving bullion additional support.
XAU/USD was trading around $4,407.78 per ounce, while gold futures stood near $4,466.10. Silver also strengthened, while platinum edged lower.
Gold climbed as much as 0.9% on Wednesday, reaching roughly $4,450 before giving back part of its gains. The rally followed July U.S. consumer price data showing monthly inflation increased just 0.1%, in line with expectations.
The relatively mild CPI reading suggested that higher energy costs linked to ongoing Middle East tensions had yet to create a significant new inflation shock. That helped reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the immediate future.
Market expectations for a September rate hike also eased following the data, with CME FedWatch indicating the probability had fallen to around 38%-40%, compared with approximately 46% before the CPI release.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, gold’s structure has improved after the metal reclaimed the $4,000 psychological level and moved above its 100-day moving average for the first time since April.
The $4,400-$4,450 region is now an important resistance zone. A sustained break above $4,450 could strengthen the bullish momentum and expose the $4,499 area, where the 200-day moving average currently sits.
However, failure to break this resistance could trigger profit-taking, particularly after gold’s recent sharp recovery. Traders may then watch $4,400 and the broader $4,000 area as important downside levels.
The technical picture therefore remains constructive, but gold is approaching a zone where sellers could become more active.
The gold is currently being pulled in two opposing directions: easier Fed expectations are supporting prices, while oil and geopolitical risks could revive inflation and limit the Fed’s ability to cut rates.
For traders, the $4,450 resistance area is particularly important. A decisive breakout could signal that bullish momentum is returning, while rejection around this level could lead to a short-term correction. At the same time, upcoming U.S. PPI data, employment figures, Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar and Fed commentary could quickly change rate expectations and, consequently, the direction of XAU/USD.
