The EUR/USD pair is trading cautiously above the 1.1500 level during Monday’s Asian session, March 30, after briefly touching a one-week low. While the pair has managed a modest rebound, upside momentum remains weak as global uncertainty continues to favor the US Dollar.
Rising geopolitical tensions are keeping markets in a risk-off mode, pushing investors toward safer assets. This shift supports the Greenback and limits recovery attempts in EUR/USD, leaving the pair vulnerable to further downside.
Signals Weak Momentum
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is showing signs of soft bearish pressure. The pair remains below key short-term indicators, including the 20-, 50-, and 100-period Simple Moving Averages, reflecting a lack of bullish strength.
Price action is also confined to the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is drifting toward the 40 level. This suggests bearish momentum is building, though the pair has not yet reached oversold territory.
Key support is seen at 1.1500, a critical psychological and technical level. A break below this zone could expose the next downside target near 1.1400. On the upside, resistance is likely to emerge around 1.1550, followed by stronger barriers near 1.1630 and 1.1670.
Geopolitical Risks Keep Markets on Edge
On the fundamental side, market sentiment remains cautious despite temporary signs of diplomatic progress. US President Donald Trump recently stated that a planned strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure would be delayed, citing ongoing discussions between Washington and Tehran.
However, investors have shown little confidence in a lasting de-escalation. Equity markets have struggled, and the US Dollar Index continues to hold firm near the 100 level—both signs of persistent risk aversion.
Downside Risks Remain
With no major economic data acting as a catalyst, geopolitical developments are expected to dominate market direction. Ongoing uncertainty, particularly surrounding the Middle East situation, may continue to drive demand for the US Dollar.
As a result, EUR/USD could remain under pressure in the near term, with any recovery attempts likely to face strong resistance unless market sentiment shifts toward risk-on conditions.
