EUR/USD is struggling to regain higher ground after falling back below 1.1500, trading around 1.1464 on Tuesday, September 22. The euro remains under pressure from a stronger US Dollar, hawkish Federal Reserve expectations and renewed political uncertainty in Europe, although hopes for US-Iran diplomacy are providing some support to risk sentiment. The Dollar continues to benefit from expectations of further Fed tightening after St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said additional rate hikes may be needed to bring inflation back toward the 2% target. Markets are also watching comments from Fed officials John Williams, Philip Jefferson and Thomas Barkin for further clues on the central bank’s policy outlook.
Geopolitical developments could also influence EUR/USD this week. Hopes for potential US-Iran discussions at the United Nations General Assembly have helped improve risk sentiment and provide some support for the euro. US President Donald Trump has indicated he could be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, keeping markets focused on developments in the Middle East. Progress toward diplomacy could reduce demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset, while renewed tensions could strengthen the Dollar and add further pressure on EUR/USD.
The euro is also dealing with increased political uncertainty in Germany following disappointing results for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU in recent state elections. The developments have raised concerns about political stability in Europe’s largest economy. Market analysts cited by FXStreet have warned that the political and fiscal backdrop could weigh on confidence in the euro in the near term.
For EUR/USD, this creates an additional source of downside pressure at a time when the Dollar is already benefiting from a more hawkish US interest-rate outlook.
Technical Analysis
The technical picture remains bearish in the near term. On the daily chart, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1464, below the key 1.1499 level and the 1.1500 psychological resistance.
Momentum indicators also point to continued selling pressure. The 14-day RSI is around 34, showing that bearish momentum remains significant, although the indicator is approaching oversold territory. Meanwhile, the MACD remains below its signal line and below the zero level, reinforcing the current negative momentum.
On the downside, 1.1429 is the first support to watch. A daily break below this level could expose the 1.1353 area, while a deeper decline could bring 1.1325 into focus.
On the upside, EUR/USD first needs to reclaim 1.1499 to ease the immediate selling pressure. Above that level, the next resistance is around 1.1532, followed by 1.1574 and 1.1626.
Therefore, the near-term structure remains vulnerable while the pair trades below the 1.1499–1.1532 resistance zone. A sustained move back above this area would be needed to strengthen the case for a broader recovery.
A break below support could strengthen bearish momentum toward 1.1353, while a recovery above resistance could signal that sellers are losing control. Beyond the chart, traders should closely monitor Fed speeches, US-Iran developments and German political news, as these factors could trigger sharp moves in both the Euro and US Dollar.
