EUR/USD extended its decline for a third consecutive session on Wednesday, June 24, falling to its lowest level in more than a year during Asian trading. The pair was last seen near the 1.1365 area, down around 0.15% on the day, as renewed strength in the US Dollar continued to pressure the euro.
The Greenback remains well supported as traders increase bets that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again before the end of the year to contain persistent inflation. At the same time, mixed signals from the US and Iran regarding Tehran’s nuclear program have kept geopolitical risks in focus, adding further demand for the safe-haven US Dollar.
The US Dollar Index, which measures the Greenback against a basket of major currencies, has climbed to a 13-month high. This has overshadowed the European Central Bank’s hawkish tone and strengthened the bearish outlook for EUR/USD.
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD remains under pressure after repeatedly failing to hold above the 100-period Simple Moving Average on the 4-hour chart. The break below the key 1.1500 psychological level has also reinforced bearish momentum.
Momentum indicators continue to support the downside view. The Relative Strength Index is hovering in oversold territory near 21, while the MACD histogram remains negative. These signals suggest that sellers still have control in the near term.
However, the deeply oversold RSI also calls for caution. A short-term consolidation phase or a limited rebound could occur before the next bearish move develops. This means traders may avoid chasing fresh downside positions aggressively at current levels.
Key Levels to Watch
The 1.1350 area is now the next important downside target for EUR/USD. A clear break below this level could open the door for deeper losses in the sessions ahead.
On the upside, any recovery attempt may face strong resistance near the 100-day Simple Moving Average around 1.1544. EUR/USD would need to reclaim this level to ease immediate selling pressure and shift the short-term bias back in favor of buyers.
For now, the broader outlook remains negative as a stronger US Dollar, rising Fed rate hike expectations, and geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on the pair.
For investors, the current EUR/USD weakness highlights the importance of monitoring both macroeconomic signals and technical confirmation. A stronger US Dollar may continue to support defensive positioning, especially if Fed rate hike expectations remain elevated.
However, oversold conditions suggest that short-term volatility could increase, so investors may prefer to wait for clearer price action before making major exposure adjustments.
