The EUR/USD pair continued to slide for the fourth consecutive session on Monday, trading near 1.1730 in early Asian hours. The euro has come under renewed pressure as the US dollar remains firm following last week’s Federal Reserve rate cut. While the Fed trimmed rates by 25 basis points as widely expected, policymakers signaled no urgency for further easing, a stance that supported the greenback and kept the euro subdued.
Technical Outlook: Key Levels in Focus
EUR/USD looks vulnerable to further downside but could still be preparing for a potential breakout if momentum shifts. On the upside, resistance is seen at the September 17, 2025 peak of 1.1918, followed by the critical psychological barrier at 1.2000. On the downside, immediate support rests at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1561. A break below this level would expose the August low at 1.1391 and the May trough near 1.1210.
Momentum signals remain mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped back to 57, suggesting buyers still have some control, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) just above 16 indicates that the trend lacks strength.
ECB Holds Steady as Inflation Nears Target
In contrast, the European Central Bank left its three key interest rates unchanged last week, maintaining its meeting-by-meeting and data-driven approach. Officials emphasized that inflation is broadly aligned with the 2% medium-term target, forecasting core inflation to average 2.4% in 2025 before easing to 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.
ECB President Christine Lagarde described the bank as being in a “good place” with risks now more balanced, but reiterated that future decisions will depend entirely on upcoming data. This cautious stance has left the euro lacking fresh catalysts, especially against a firmer dollar.
Trade Tensions Ease, but Tariffs Persist
Global trade tensions provided some relief after Washington and Beijing extended their trade truce for another 90 days. President Trump delayed planned tariff hikes until November 10, while China refrained from immediate retaliation. Nevertheless, tariffs remain steep, with US imports from China still facing a 30% levy and Chinese goods into the US taxed at 10%.
Meanwhile, Washington struck a new trade agreement with Brussels. The EU agreed to cut tariffs on US industrial products and expand access for American agricultural and seafood exports. In return, Washington imposed a 15% tariff on most European imports. However, auto tariffs remain a possibility depending on upcoming EU legislation, leaving uncertainty in the trade outlook.
Outlook for EUR/USD
The euro is struggling below 1.1750, weighed down by a stronger dollar and cautious ECB guidance. The upcoming release of Eurozone consumer confidence figures will be closely watched for fresh direction. Unless the data surprises to the upside, EUR/USD could remain under pressure, with traders looking toward US data and further Fed commentary for the next catalyst.
