{"id":121542,"date":"2026-07-21T10:04:55","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T08:04:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=121542"},"modified":"2026-07-21T10:23:51","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T08:23:51","slug":"brent-testa-resistencia-critica","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/brent-testa-resistencia-critica\/","title":{"rendered":"Brent Testa Resist\u00eancia Cr\u00edtica"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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O aumento das tens\u00f5es geopol\u00edticas no Oriente M\u00e9dio levou o petr\u00f3leo Brent a um momento decisivo tanto do ponto de vista t\u00e9cnico quanto macroecon\u00f4mico. Com os riscos de oferta crescendo em torno de dois dos mais importantes corredores mar\u00edtimos do mundo, o mercado volta a enfrentar a possibilidade de uma interrup\u00e7\u00e3o prolongada no fornecimento.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na \u00faltima sexta-feira, os mercados repercutiram uma reportagem da Reuters indicando que o Ir\u00e3 teria instru\u00eddo os Houthis a se prepararem para fechar o Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb caso os Estados Unidos ataquem a infraestrutura energ\u00e9tica iraniana. Segundo a publica\u00e7\u00e3o, m\u00edsseis e drones j\u00e1 estariam posicionados pr\u00f3ximos \u00e0 via mar\u00edtima, aguardando ordens de oficiais da Guarda Revolucion\u00e1ria Isl\u00e2mica (IRGC) no I\u00eamen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A amea\u00e7a ganhou for\u00e7a durante o fim de semana, ap\u00f3s os Houthis declararem um embargo mar\u00edtimo contra a Ar\u00e1bia Saudita, acusando Riad de bombardear o Aeroporto de Sana\u00e1. O epis\u00f3dio \u00e9 particularmente relevante porque a Ar\u00e1bia Saudita vinha redirecionando parte significativa de suas exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de petr\u00f3leo por oleodutos at\u00e9 um terminal no Mar Vermelho para compensar o fechamento do Estreito de Ormuz. Qualquer interrup\u00e7\u00e3o em Bab el-Mandeb eliminaria, na pr\u00e1tica, essa rota alternativa de exporta\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Esse \u00e9 o mesmo corredor mar\u00edtimo alvo dos ataques Houthis em 2023 e 2024, quando o tr\u00e1fego no Mar Vermelho caiu cerca de 50%, obrigando navios a contornarem o Cabo da Boa Esperan\u00e7a. Embora o cessar-fogo no fim de 2025 tenha permitido a recupera\u00e7\u00e3o parcial do fluxo, Bab el-Mandeb tornou-se ainda mais estrat\u00e9gico ap\u00f3s o fechamento de Ormuz neste ano, funcionando como uma das poucas rotas restantes para as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de petr\u00f3leo do Golfo rumo \u00e0 Europa e \u00e0 \u00c1sia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Segundo dados da EIA, o volume de petr\u00f3leo bruto e derivados transportado por Bab el-Mandeb caiu de mais de 9 milh\u00f5es de barris por dia<\/strong> em 2023 para cerca de 4 milh\u00f5es<\/strong> durante 2024 e 2025, ap\u00f3s a primeira campanha dos Houthis. Desde ent\u00e3o, o fluxo recuperou-se para aproximadamente 5,4 milh\u00f5es de barris por dia<\/strong> no primeiro trimestre de 2026, \u00e0 medida que parte das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es foi desviada de Ormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Os embarques de GNL tamb\u00e9m voltaram para cerca de 2,9 bilh\u00f5es de p\u00e9s c\u00fabicos por dia<\/strong>, ap\u00f3s terem ca\u00eddo temporariamente a zero. Ainda assim, Bab el-Mandeb continua respondendo por quase 12% do com\u00e9rcio mar\u00edtimo global de petr\u00f3leo<\/strong>. Embora esse volume seja inferior aos cerca de 20 milh\u00f5es de barris por dia<\/strong> normalmente transportados por Ormuz, o mercado teria dificuldades para absorver uma nova interrup\u00e7\u00e3o significativa enquanto Ormuz permanece praticamente fechado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A breve reabertura do Estreito de Ormuz prevista pelo Memorando de Islamabad, em junho, foi revertida. Ap\u00f3s o colapso do cessar-fogo por volta de 7 de julho, o Ir\u00e3 retomou ataques contra navios petroleiros, e a Guarda Revolucion\u00e1ria declarou oficialmente o estreito novamente fechado em 19 de julho.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Os dados mais recentes do PortWatch, de 12 de julho, mostravam apenas 10 embarca\u00e7\u00f5es<\/strong> atravessando o estreito, muito abaixo da m\u00e9dia de aproximadamente 88 navios por dia<\/strong> antes da crise, enquanto cerca de 490 embarca\u00e7\u00f5es<\/strong> permaneciam fundeadas nas proximidades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Os impactos sobre a produ\u00e7\u00e3o tornam-se cada vez mais relevantes. O Kuwait teria sido for\u00e7ado a reduzir sua produ\u00e7\u00e3o em aproximadamente 2,8 milh\u00f5es de barris por dia<\/strong>, ap\u00f3s suas instala\u00e7\u00f5es de armazenamento atingirem a capacidade m\u00e1xima diante do bloqueio das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es. O JPMorgan estima que as paralisa\u00e7\u00f5es na produ\u00e7\u00e3o do Golfo possam chegar a 5 milh\u00f5es de barris por dia<\/strong> caso o fechamento persista. Alguns analistas tamb\u00e9m alertam que entre 10% e 30%<\/strong> da capacidade interrompida poder\u00e1 sofrer danos permanentes aos reservat\u00f3rios, em vez de retornar imediatamente quando as exporta\u00e7\u00f5es forem retomadas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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An\u00e1lise T\u00e9cnica<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

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H\u00e1 cerca de duas semanas, na an\u00e1lise publicada em 8 de julho<\/a><\/strong>, destacamos potencial adicional de alta ap\u00f3s o Brent voltar a ser negociado pr\u00f3ximo de US$76 por barril<\/strong>. Na ocasi\u00e3o, projetamos alvos em US$81,20<\/strong>, US$82,60<\/strong> e, posteriormente, US$87,50<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Atualmente, o Brent \u00e9 negociado pr\u00f3ximo de US$87,05<\/strong>, ap\u00f3s atingir a m\u00e1xima intradi\u00e1ria de US$88,99<\/strong> ontem, o que significa que todos os objetivos previamente projetados foram alcan\u00e7ados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Brent, Di\u00e1rio | novembro de 2025 \u2013 Atualidade<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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Considerando apenas o cen\u00e1rio t\u00e9cnico, o Brent ainda pode ter espa\u00e7o para estender o movimento de alta ap\u00f3s a forte valoriza\u00e7\u00e3o recente. A pr\u00f3xima resist\u00eancia importante \u00e9 representada pela linha de tend\u00eancia descendente no gr\u00e1fico di\u00e1rio, atualmente pr\u00f3xima de US$92,30<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Linhas de tend\u00eancia n\u00e3o devem ser interpretadas como alvos exatos de pre\u00e7o, mas como importantes zonas de refer\u00eancia t\u00e9cnica. Ainda assim, esse n\u00edvel merece aten\u00e7\u00e3o devido \u00e0 sua conflu\u00eancia com regi\u00f5es hist\u00f3ricas de pre\u00e7o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Um movimento at\u00e9 essa \u00e1rea tamb\u00e9m aproximaria o Brent da faixa entre US$93,00 e US$93,25<\/strong>, que funcionou como um importante suporte entre mar\u00e7o e o in\u00edcio de junho. Uma recupera\u00e7\u00e3o sustentada acima dessa regi\u00e3o representaria um desenvolvimento t\u00e9cnico relevante e tamb\u00e9m teria importantes implica\u00e7\u00f5es macroecon\u00f4micas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pre\u00e7os mais elevados do petr\u00f3leo aumentariam as press\u00f5es inflacion\u00e1rias em um momento em que as reservas estrat\u00e9gicas j\u00e1 se encontram significativamente reduzidas. A Reserva Estrat\u00e9gica de Petr\u00f3leo dos Estados Unidos caiu para o menor n\u00edvel desde 1984<\/strong>, ap\u00f3s recuar aproximadamente pela metade nos \u00faltimos cinco anos. Novas altas no pre\u00e7o do petr\u00f3leo tamb\u00e9m poder\u00e3o pressionar os mercados financeiros globais ao elevar os custos em toda a economia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O aumento das tens\u00f5es geopol\u00edticas no Oriente M\u00e9dio levou o petr\u00f3leo Brent a um momento decisivo tanto do ponto de […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113490,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[798],"tags":[4599,5335,5336,4383],"class_list":["post-121542","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical","tag-analise-tecnica","tag-estreito-de-ormuz","tag-geopolitica","tag-onequity-insights"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBrent Testa Resist\u00eancia Cr\u00edtica - 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