{"id":121413,"date":"2026-07-16T09:23:44","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T07:23:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=121413"},"modified":"2026-07-16T09:31:25","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T07:31:25","slug":"eurusd-sob-pressao-do-fed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/eurusd-sob-pressao-do-fed\/","title":{"rendered":"EURUSD Sob Press\u00e3o do Fed"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As aten\u00e7\u00f5es do mercado estiveram voltadas nesta semana para os dados de infla\u00e7\u00e3o dos Estados Unidos, enquanto os investidores buscavam novos sinais sobre a pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria do Federal Reserve e a trajet\u00f3ria do d\u00f3lar americano. A primeira reuni\u00e3o de Kevin Warsh como presidente do Federal Reserve era inicialmente vista como o in\u00edcio de um ciclo de cortes de juros liderado por um aliado de Donald Trump. Em vez disso, o encontro trouxe uma surpresa de tom hawkish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A reuni\u00e3o do FOMC de junho reduziu significativamente a orienta\u00e7\u00e3o futura, deixou o dot plot dividido em 9 a 9 entre os membros favor\u00e1veis a novas altas de juros e os contr\u00e1rios, e elevou a proje\u00e7\u00e3o mediana da taxa para 2026 de 3,4% para 3,8%. Al\u00e9m disso, Warsh optou por n\u00e3o apresentar sua pr\u00f3pria proje\u00e7\u00e3o no dot plot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A surpresa provocou uma forte queda do EURUSD, levando o par abaixo da faixa de negocia\u00e7\u00e3o de um ano entre 1,15 e 1,1825 e ao menor n\u00edvel desde maio de 2025, em 1,1325. A mudan\u00e7a para uma postura mais restritiva fortaleceu o d\u00f3lar americano ao reduzir a atratividade relativa do euro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Durante seu depoimento ao Congresso nesta semana, Warsh refor\u00e7ou essa mensagem ao afirmar que “ainda h\u00e1 muito trabalho a ser feito”, rejeitando qualquer sugest\u00e3o de que a batalha contra a infla\u00e7\u00e3o estivesse conclu\u00edda. Como resultado, o EURUSD permaneceu pr\u00f3ximo das m\u00ednimas de v\u00e1rios meses, em torno de 1,14, enquanto os mercados aguardavam sinais de uma mudan\u00e7a de pol\u00edtica que nunca aconteceu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
O sentimento do mercado mudou drasticamente ap\u00f3s uma sequ\u00eancia de indicadores de infla\u00e7\u00e3o mais fracos do que o esperado. Na ter\u00e7a-feira, o \u00cdndice de Pre\u00e7os ao Consumidor (CPI) caiu 0,4% na compara\u00e7\u00e3o mensal, registrando a primeira queda da infla\u00e7\u00e3o desde 2020. O resultado ficou muito abaixo das expectativas e reduziu a probabilidade de uma alta de juros em julho de 42% para menos de 17%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
O rendimento dos t\u00edtulos do Tesouro dos EUA de dois anos caiu at\u00e9 14 pontos-base, registrando sua maior queda di\u00e1ria em meses, \u00e0 medida que os investidores desfizeram as posi\u00e7\u00f5es hawkish montadas ap\u00f3s a reuni\u00e3o do FOMC de junho.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Na quarta-feira, o \u00cdndice de Pre\u00e7os ao Produtor (PPI) refor\u00e7ou a narrativa de uma infla\u00e7\u00e3o mais moderada. Os pre\u00e7os ao produtor recuaram 0,3%, enquanto o mercado esperava estabilidade no m\u00eas, e o n\u00facleo do PPI tamb\u00e9m ficou abaixo das proje\u00e7\u00f5es. A queda nos rendimentos dos Treasuries de curto prazo favoreceu um novo movimento comprador no EURUSD, \u00e0 medida que o mercado reduziu parcialmente as expectativas de um aperto monet\u00e1rio adicional pelo Fed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Apesar dos dados de infla\u00e7\u00e3o mais fracos, as expectativas de uma nova alta de juros ainda n\u00e3o desapareceram.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Os mercados continuam precificando uma probabilidade entre 50% e 60% de um aumento das taxas em setembro, indicando que os investidores ainda esperam que o Federal Reserve mantenha uma postura restritiva. Com o FOMC dividido e Warsh se recusando a descartar novos aumentos, o pr\u00f3ximo grande movimento do EURUSD depender\u00e1 de os recentes dados de infla\u00e7\u00e3o marcarem o in\u00edcio de uma tend\u00eancia consistente de desinfla\u00e7\u00e3o ou representarem apenas uma pausa tempor\u00e1ria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
An\u00e1lise T\u00e9cnica<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Embora o EURUSD tenha negociado principalmente dentro da faixa entre 1,15 e 1,1825 ao longo do \u00faltimo ano, houve diversos movimentos importantes al\u00e9m desses limites. No lado inferior, o n\u00edvel psicol\u00f3gico de 1,14 atuou como uma importante regi\u00e3o de suporte, servindo como \u00faltima linha de defesa tanto em agosto de 2025 quanto em mar\u00e7o de 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\nGr\u00e1fico Di\u00e1rio do EURUSD, de novembro de 2024 at\u00e9 o presente.<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Embora o EURUSD tenha negociado brevemente abaixo de 1,14 em v\u00e1rias sess\u00f5es recentes, a principal zona de suporte continua preservada, com o par sendo negociado atualmente em torno de 1,1468.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Os indicadores t\u00e9cnicos apresentaram uma recupera\u00e7\u00e3o moderada. No entanto, 1,15 passou a representar uma resist\u00eancia relevante, refor\u00e7ada pela linha de tend\u00eancia descendente bem definida que vem guiando a movimenta\u00e7\u00e3o dos pre\u00e7os ao longo de 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Al\u00e9m disso, a tend\u00eancia de alta de longo prazo iniciada em dezembro de 2024 parece ter sido rompida em mar\u00e7o. Embora isso n\u00e3o indique necessariamente uma revers\u00e3o completa da tend\u00eancia, sugere que o EURUSD entrou em um novo regime de mercado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
De modo geral, mantemos uma vis\u00e3o cautelosa para o EURUSD. Caso os pre\u00e7os da energia retomem uma trajet\u00f3ria consistente de alta, acreditamos que ainda existe espa\u00e7o, embora provavelmente limitado, para uma valoriza\u00e7\u00e3o adicional do d\u00f3lar americano.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nosso principal alvo de baixa permanece em 1,1200, com suporte intermedi\u00e1rio em torno de 1,1290 e possibilidade de extens\u00e3o at\u00e9 1,1065.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
As aten\u00e7\u00f5es do mercado estiveram voltadas nesta semana para os dados de infla\u00e7\u00e3o dos Estados Unidos, enquanto os investidores buscavam […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113490,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[798],"tags":[5311,4643,4442,4444,5310,4383],"class_list":["post-121413","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical","tag-analise-forex","tag-dolar-americano","tag-eurusd","tag-federal-reserve","tag-inflacao-dos-eua","tag-onequity-insights"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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