{"id":121196,"date":"2026-07-08T08:51:28","date_gmt":"2026-07-08T06:51:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=121196"},"modified":"2026-07-08T10:06:59","modified_gmt":"2026-07-08T08:06:59","slug":"brent-sobe-com-tensoes-em-ormuz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/brent-sobe-com-tensoes-em-ormuz\/","title":{"rendered":"Brent Sobe com Tens\u00f5es em Ormuz"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Os pre\u00e7os do petr\u00f3leo Brent registraram uma forte recupera\u00e7\u00e3o nesta semana, \u00e0 medida que a renova\u00e7\u00e3o das tens\u00f5es geopol\u00edticas no Estreito de Ormuz reacendeu as preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es com o fornecimento global de petr\u00f3leo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na ter\u00e7a-feira, os contratos futuros do Brent fecharam em alta de 3%, a US$ 74,16 por barril, enquanto o WTI avan\u00e7ou 2,8%, para US$ 70,44, ap\u00f3s o Ir\u00e3 atingir um navio de GNL do Catar e outras embarca\u00e7\u00f5es pr\u00f3ximas ao Estreito de Ormuz. Ap\u00f3s o fechamento do mercado, os pre\u00e7os ampliaram os ganhos quando os Estados Unidos revogaram a licen\u00e7a do Ir\u00e3 para vender seu petr\u00f3leo. O Brent disparou 5,6%, para US$ 76,04, enquanto o WTI subiu 5,4%, para US$ 72,25, nas negocia\u00e7\u00f5es ap\u00f3s o fechamento.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A alta continuou na quarta-feira ap\u00f3s novos ataques retaliat\u00f3rios dos Estados Unidos. A Bloomberg descreveu a escalada como o maior dia de ataques no Estreito de Ormuz desde o acordo de paz entre Estados Unidos e Ir\u00e3, enquanto a Associated Press informou o maior n\u00famero de ataques a petroleiros em um \u00fanico dia desde o fim de abril, citando a Organiza\u00e7\u00e3o Mar\u00edtima Internacional da ONU. A forte revers\u00e3o ocorre ap\u00f3s os pre\u00e7os do petr\u00f3leo terem recuado recentemente para m\u00ednimas de quatro meses com a recupera\u00e7\u00e3o da oferta na regi\u00e3o do Golfo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essa recupera\u00e7\u00e3o agora enfrenta novas press\u00f5es. Antes da escalada mais recente, o fluxo de petr\u00f3leo pelo Estreito de Ormuz vinha se normalizando gradualmente. Os Emirados \u00c1rabes Unidos elevaram sua produ\u00e7\u00e3o para mais de 3,8 milh\u00f5es de barris por dia em junho, o maior n\u00edvel desde abril de 2020 e acima dos volumes registrados antes do conflito. Ao mesmo tempo, a OPEP+ continuou aumentando suas cotas de produ\u00e7\u00e3o, enquanto relatos indicavam que superpetroleiros ligados ao Jap\u00e3o haviam retomado as travessias pelo estreito.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mesmo assim, a atividade mar\u00edtima permaneceu abaixo do normal. No in\u00edcio de julho, um provedor de monitoramento estimou que o n\u00famero di\u00e1rio de embarca\u00e7\u00f5es correspondia a cerca de um quarto dos n\u00edveis anteriores ao conflito. Os pr\u00eamios dos seguros contra riscos de guerra continuavam elevados, e muitas grandes transportadoras mantinham o desvio de rotas pelo Cabo da Boa Esperan\u00e7a em vez de utilizar o Estreito de Ormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Segundo o CENTCOM, os ataques realizados durante a noite atingiram mais de 80 ativos militares iranianos, incluindo sistemas de defesa a\u00e9rea, redes de comando e controle, instala\u00e7\u00f5es de radar costeiro, posi\u00e7\u00f5es de m\u00edsseis antinavio e mais de 60 pequenas embarca\u00e7\u00f5es da Guarda Revolucion\u00e1ria Isl\u00e2mica (IRGC) que operavam dentro e ao redor do estreito. Explos\u00f5es tamb\u00e9m foram registradas em Bandar Abbas, Sirik e na Ilha de Qeshm, com v\u00e1rios feridos por estilha\u00e7os.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O presidente do Parlamento iraniano, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, acusou Washington de violar o memorando de entendimento e afirmou que “a era da intimida\u00e7\u00e3o e da extors\u00e3o acabou”, destacando o aumento da press\u00e3o sobre o cessar-fogo firmado em junho e a renovada incerteza para os mercados globais de petr\u00f3leo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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An\u00e1lise T\u00e9cnica<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

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Ap\u00f3s atingir o pico de US$ 120,50 em nossa plataforma no dia 30 de abril, o UK Oil recuou para US$ 70,15 em 2 de julho, representando uma queda de 41,8% ao longo de 38 sess\u00f5es de negocia\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O movimento levou o benchmark abaixo do fechamento de 27 de fevereiro, em US$ 73,52, e completou um teste cl\u00e1ssico da linha de tend\u00eancia descendente de longo prazo, rompida de forma decisiva no in\u00edcio do conflito.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Brent, gr\u00e1fico di\u00e1rio, mar\u00e7o de 2023 \u2013 atual<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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A alta de ontem levou os pre\u00e7os novamente acima da resist\u00eancia da linha de tend\u00eancia e da regi\u00e3o de US$ 74, que marcou a m\u00e1xima do fim de fevereiro. Tanto o RSI quanto o MACD come\u00e7aram a se recuperar das condi\u00e7\u00f5es de sobrevenda. Embora o MACD permane\u00e7a em territ\u00f3rio negativo, ele j\u00e1 gerou um cruzamento de alta. O volume negociado tamb\u00e9m atingiu seu maior n\u00edvel desde 7 de maio, quando o UK Oil fechou pouco abaixo de US$ 100 antes de acelerar sua queda ao longo do m\u00eas seguinte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sob uma perspectiva t\u00e9cnica mais ampla, as principais resist\u00eancias est\u00e3o em US$ 81,20 e US$ 87,50. O suporte inicial \u00e9 observado em US$ 70, seguido pela regi\u00e3o de US$ 65.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Brent, gr\u00e1fico de 4 horas, abril de 2026 \u2013 atual<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No gr\u00e1fico de quatro horas, dois aspectos t\u00e9cnicos merecem destaque. O primeiro \u00e9 a linha de tend\u00eancia descendente que vem guiando os pre\u00e7os desde maio e atualmente est\u00e1 posicionada perto de US$ 82,60. O segundo \u00e9 o RSI, que j\u00e1 ultrapassou o n\u00edvel de 70, indicando condi\u00e7\u00f5es de sobrecompra no curto prazo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A atual recupera\u00e7\u00e3o parece sustentada pelos desdobramentos geopol\u00edticos em andamento, tornando a regi\u00e3o de US$ 81,20 o primeiro objetivo relevante de alta. A capacidade do mercado de sustentar um rompimento acima desse n\u00edvel dever\u00e1 ficar mais clara nas pr\u00f3ximas sess\u00f5es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No entanto, as condi\u00e7\u00f5es de sobrecompra nos prazos mais curtos, somadas \u00e0 forte valoriza\u00e7\u00e3o registrada ontem, sugerem que o mercado poder\u00e1 entrar em uma breve fase de consolida\u00e7\u00e3o antes de retomar o movimento de alta. Esse per\u00edodo poder\u00e1 levar os pre\u00e7os a testar novamente a regi\u00e3o de US$ 74 a partir do n\u00edvel atual de US$ 76,22. Ainda assim, o cen\u00e1rio t\u00e9cnico mais amplo n\u00e3o favorece, neste momento, vendas agressivas nem indica um novo movimento expressivo de baixa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Os pre\u00e7os do petr\u00f3leo Brent registraram uma forte recupera\u00e7\u00e3o nesta semana, \u00e0 medida que a renova\u00e7\u00e3o das tens\u00f5es geopol\u00edticas no […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113490,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[798],"tags":[4599,5243,4302,4383],"class_list":["post-121196","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical","tag-analise-tecnica","tag-brent","tag-commodities","tag-onequity-insights"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBrent Sobe com Tens\u00f5es em Ormuz - 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