{"id":121150,"date":"2026-07-07T09:54:55","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T07:54:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=121150"},"modified":"2026-07-07T10:22:21","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T08:22:21","slug":"recuperacao-do-ouro-perde-forca","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/recuperacao-do-ouro-perde-forca\/","title":{"rendered":"Recupera\u00e7\u00e3o do Ouro Perde For\u00e7a"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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O ouro era negociado pr\u00f3ximo de US$4.150 na an\u00e1lise anterior, quando o cen\u00e1rio t\u00e9cnico apontava para riscos crescentes de queda e a possibilidade de um retorno \u00e0 regi\u00e3o dos US$3.000. A press\u00e3o vendedora se intensificou posteriormente, levando os pre\u00e7os \u00e0 m\u00ednima de US$3.942, antes de o metal formar uma base pr\u00f3xima de US$3.960 entre 24 de junho e 1\u00ba de julho.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nas \u00faltimas sess\u00f5es, o ouro recuperou parte do momentum. No momento da reda\u00e7\u00e3o, \u00e9 negociado a US$4.123, embora ainda acumule queda de 0,98% na sess\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Diversos dados de infla\u00e7\u00e3o vieram ligeiramente melhores do que o esperado, especialmente na Zona do Euro e na Austr\u00e1lia. No entanto, o desenvolvimento mais relevante foi a mudan\u00e7a na comunica\u00e7\u00e3o dos principais bancos centrais globais.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
O afastamento do forward guidance<\/em>, fortemente defendido pelo novo presidente do Fed, Kevin Warsh, representa uma mudan\u00e7a significativa em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 abordagem de pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria dos \u00faltimos 15 anos. Essa transi\u00e7\u00e3o foi refor\u00e7ada na semana passada por grandes bancos centrais, incluindo BCE, BoE e BoC, durante o f\u00f3rum de bancos centrais em Sintra, Portugal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No mesmo evento, as autoridades reiteraram que a infla\u00e7\u00e3o continua elevada e precisa ser controlada, apesar da forte queda dos pre\u00e7os do petr\u00f3leo. Essa mensagem j\u00e1 havia sido evidente na \u00faltima reuni\u00e3o do Fed e dever\u00e1 receber maior aten\u00e7\u00e3o com a divulga\u00e7\u00e3o da ata do FOMC na quarta-feira.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nesse contexto, seria esperado que os rendimentos dos Treasuries dos EUA e as expectativas de infla\u00e7\u00e3o de longo prazo subissem simultaneamente. Em vez disso, os rendimentos nominais permaneceram relativamente est\u00e1veis, enquanto as expectativas de infla\u00e7\u00e3o recuaram.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
O rendimento dos Treasuries de 10 anos est\u00e1 apenas cerca de 4 pontos-base acima do n\u00edvel de 17 de junho, enquanto o rendimento de 2 anos recuou 3 pontos-base, para 4,135%. Mais importante, a taxa de infla\u00e7\u00e3o impl\u00edcita de 10 anos caiu de 2,50% em meados de maio para 2,24%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Como resultado, os juros reais de longo prazo \u2014 possivelmente a vari\u00e1vel macroecon\u00f4mica com maior correla\u00e7\u00e3o inversa com os pre\u00e7os do ouro \u2014 continuaram avan\u00e7ando e agora est\u00e3o pr\u00f3ximos de 2,26%, perto do limite superior da faixa dos \u00faltimos tr\u00eas anos. Esse cen\u00e1rio permanece desfavor\u00e1vel para o ouro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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An\u00e1lise T\u00e9cnica<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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Apesar da recente recupera\u00e7\u00e3o, o movimento ainda parece ser um repique t\u00e9cnico, e n\u00e3o o in\u00edcio de uma nova tend\u00eancia de alta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No gr\u00e1fico de quatro horas, o RSI apresenta uma diverg\u00eancia altista desde 10 de junho, quando o ouro era negociado pr\u00f3ximo do importante piv\u00f4 de US$4.360. Essa diverg\u00eancia ajudou a estabelecer a consolida\u00e7\u00e3o em torno de US$3.960 durante a segunda metade de junho, ap\u00f3s um per\u00edodo prolongado de sobrevenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A linha de tend\u00eancia descendente continua limitando os pre\u00e7os e encontra-se atualmente pr\u00f3xima de US$4.260. Apenas um movimento sustentado acima desse n\u00edvel melhoraria o cen\u00e1rio t\u00e9cnico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No gr\u00e1fico di\u00e1rio, a m\u00e9dia m\u00f3vel de 21 dias est\u00e1 pr\u00f3xima de US$4.146, perto dos pre\u00e7os atuais, enquanto a m\u00e9dia de 50 dias permanece significativamente mais alta, em US$4.381. Mesmo que o ouro rompa acima da linha de tend\u00eancia descendente, ainda enfrentaria resist\u00eancia na m\u00e9dia de 50 dias e no importante piv\u00f4 de US$4.360.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
O RSI di\u00e1rio recuperou para 45. Embora permane\u00e7a em territ\u00f3rio baixista, j\u00e1 n\u00e3o est\u00e1 em sobrevenda, deixando espa\u00e7o para novas quedas. Ao mesmo tempo, o momentum j\u00e1 n\u00e3o est\u00e1 suficientemente esticado para sustentar uma vis\u00e3o agressivamente baixista.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
De forma geral, as altas continuam sendo vistas como oportunidades de venda. O cen\u00e1rio s\u00f3 se tornaria mais construtivo caso o ouro rompesse acima dos principais n\u00edveis de resist\u00eancia t\u00e9cnica destacados anteriormente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Embora um gr\u00e1fico de longo prazo n\u00e3o esteja inclu\u00eddo nesta an\u00e1lise, o alvo de baixa de m\u00e9dio a longo prazo permanece entre US$3.300 e US$3.600. A justificativa t\u00e9cnica por tr\u00e1s dessa perspectiva ser\u00e1 explorada em mais detalhes nas pr\u00f3ximas semanas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
O ouro era negociado pr\u00f3ximo de US$4.150 na an\u00e1lise anterior, quando o cen\u00e1rio t\u00e9cnico apontava para riscos crescentes de queda […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113490,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[798],"tags":[4599,3707,4672,4383,4439],"class_list":["post-121150","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical","tag-analise-tecnica","tag-fed-pt","tag-juros-reais","tag-onequity-insights","tag-xauusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
Recupera\u00e7\u00e3o do Ouro Perde For\u00e7a - OnEquity<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/recuperacao-do-ouro-perde-forca\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Recupera\u00e7\u00e3o do Ouro Perde For\u00e7a - OnEquity\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"O ouro era negociado pr\u00f3ximo de US$4.150 na an\u00e1lise anterior, quando o cen\u00e1rio t\u00e9cnico apontava para riscos crescentes de queda […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/recuperacao-do-ouro-perde-forca\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"OnEquity\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-07-07T07:54:55+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-07-07T08:22:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Technical-Analysis-PT.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"850\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"550\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marco Turatti\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marco Turatti\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/recuperacao-do-ouro-perde-forca\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/recuperacao-do-ouro-perde-forca\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Marco Turatti\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d3e52a0ffb9417ae1b81d44a04de3be9\"},\"headline\":\"Recupera\u00e7\u00e3o do Ouro Perde For\u00e7a\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-07-07T07:54:55+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-07-07T08:22:21+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/recuperacao-do-ouro-perde-forca\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":697,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/recuperacao-do-ouro-perde-forca\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/Technical-Analysis-PT.png\",\"keywords\":[\"An\u00e1lise T\u00e9cnica\",\"Fed\",\"Juros Reais\",\"OnEquity Insights\",\"XAUUSD\"],\"articleSection\":[\"An\u00e1lise T\u00e9cnica Di\u00e1ria\"],\"inLanguage\":\"pt\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/recuperacao-do-ouro-perde-forca\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/recuperacao-do-ouro-perde-forca\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/recuperacao-do-ouro-perde-forca\\\/\",\"name\":\"Recupera\u00e7\u00e3o do Ouro Perde For\u00e7a - 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