{"id":119968,"date":"2026-06-24T09:55:11","date_gmt":"2026-06-24T07:55:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=119968"},"modified":"2026-06-24T10:06:28","modified_gmt":"2026-06-24T08:06:28","slug":"brent-volta-aos-niveis-pre-conflito","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/brent-volta-aos-niveis-pre-conflito\/","title":{"rendered":"Brent Volta aos N\u00edveis Pr\u00e9-Conflito"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O petr\u00f3leo Brent do Reino Unido voltou a n\u00edveis pr\u00f3ximos aos observados antes do in\u00edcio do conflito no Oriente M\u00e9dio. O Brent fechou em US$73,52 em 27 de fevereiro, enquanto atualmente \u00e9 negociado em torno de US$76,70, uma diferen\u00e7a de apenas 4,3%. Isso representa uma forte revers\u00e3o em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao per\u00edodo de escalada do conflito, quando os pre\u00e7os chegaram a atingir US$120.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Os acontecimentos mais recentes adicionaram press\u00e3o adicional sobre os pre\u00e7os do petr\u00f3leo. Mais de 11 mil mar\u00edtimos que permaneciam retidos no Golfo P\u00e9rsico dever\u00e3o iniciar a travessia pelo Estreito de Ormuz ap\u00f3s a obten\u00e7\u00e3o de garantias de seguran\u00e7a. A opera\u00e7\u00e3o ser\u00e1 conduzida em estreita coopera\u00e7\u00e3o com o Ir\u00e3, Om\u00e3, outros pa\u00edses costeiros da regi\u00e3o, os Estados Unidos e a ind\u00fastria mar\u00edtima.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Este \u00e9 mais um fator positivo para os pre\u00e7os da energia e para as expectativas globais de infla\u00e7\u00e3o. Al\u00e9m disso, o Senado dos Estados Unidos aprovou uma resolu\u00e7\u00e3o oficial pedindo o fim do conflito no Ir\u00e3. As implica\u00e7\u00f5es pr\u00e1ticas e jur\u00eddicas dessa medida ainda permanecem incertas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A taxa de infla\u00e7\u00e3o impl\u00edcita de 10 anos (10-year breakeven inflation rate<\/em>), que reflete as expectativas de infla\u00e7\u00e3o de longo prazo do mercado, caiu significativamente de 2,50% para 2,20% no \u00faltimo m\u00eas. Esse movimento tamb\u00e9m foi acompanhado por uma forte alta dos juros reais, que avan\u00e7aram muito mais do que os rendimentos nominais.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Os juros reais continuam sendo um dos principais obst\u00e1culos para os metais preciosos e ajudam a explicar a press\u00e3o observada no setor nas \u00faltimas sess\u00f5es. A for\u00e7a do d\u00f3lar americano tamb\u00e9m refor\u00e7ou essa tend\u00eancia, com o DXY sendo negociado atualmente em seu n\u00edvel mais alto dos \u00faltimos doze meses. Trata-se de um mecanismo cl\u00e1ssico de transmiss\u00e3o que conecta petr\u00f3leo, expectativas de infla\u00e7\u00e3o, juros reais, d\u00f3lar americano e diversas classes de ativos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Brent e Treasury dos EUA (2 Anos), mar\u00e7o de 2026 \u2013 Atualidade<\/strong>
Fonte: Bloomberg<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Um dos desenvolvimentos mais relevantes do mercado tem sido a mudan\u00e7a nas correla\u00e7\u00f5es. Entre mar\u00e7o e meados de maio, os juros de curto prazo dos Estados Unidos e os pre\u00e7os do petr\u00f3leo apresentavam uma correla\u00e7\u00e3o quase perfeita, j\u00e1 que pre\u00e7os mais altos do petr\u00f3leo implicavam infla\u00e7\u00e3o mais elevada e taxas de juros mais altas. Essa rela\u00e7\u00e3o, por\u00e9m, praticamente desapareceu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An\u00e1lise T\u00e9cnica<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A queda do Brent come\u00e7ou em 5 de maio, a partir da regi\u00e3o de US$119. Desde ent\u00e3o, os pre\u00e7os recuaram mais de US$40, ou mais de 35%, em apenas 38 sess\u00f5es de negocia\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O primeiro n\u00edvel importante rompido foi US$94,91, que cedeu em 11 de junho ap\u00f3s a forma\u00e7\u00e3o de uma longa vela baixista do tipo Marubozu. Em seguida, o mercado rompeu abaixo de US$87,60, n\u00edvel abandonado ap\u00f3s uma abertura em gap de baixa em 15 de junho.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Petr\u00f3leo Brent do Reino Unido, Di\u00e1rio, outubro de 2025 \u2013 Atualidade<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A regi\u00e3o de US$73,50 encontra-se agora pr\u00f3xima dos n\u00edveis atuais. Trata-se do \u00faltimo pre\u00e7o de fechamento antes do in\u00edcio da guerra. O n\u00edvel tamb\u00e9m coincide com uma linha de tend\u00eancia ascendente relativamente fraca, iniciada durante a recupera\u00e7\u00e3o observada no final de dezembro de 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No lado baixista, duas linhas de tend\u00eancia descendentes continuam no radar. A mais inclinada, iniciada em 19 de maio e j\u00e1 confirmada tr\u00eas vezes neste m\u00eas, permanece bem acima dos pre\u00e7os atuais. Ela voltar\u00e1 a ganhar relev\u00e2ncia caso o petr\u00f3leo apresente uma recupera\u00e7\u00e3o mais consistente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Por enquanto, a tend\u00eancia de queda segue ativa, e tentar antecipar uma revers\u00e3o pode n\u00e3o ser a estrat\u00e9gia mais favor\u00e1vel. Os indicadores t\u00e9cnicos continuam fracos, embora ainda n\u00e3o estejam em n\u00edveis de sobrevenda extrema. Um movimento em dire\u00e7\u00e3o a US$73,50 parece plaus\u00edvel. Um rompimento decisivo abaixo desse suporte poderia abrir espa\u00e7o para uma queda adicional at\u00e9 US$69,80, ainda que esse cen\u00e1rio seja mais dif\u00edcil de justificar do ponto de vista fundamental.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na alta, os principais n\u00edveis a monitorar s\u00e3o US$78, seguidos por US$81,10 e US$85. Acima dessas regi\u00f5es, as linhas de tend\u00eancia baixistas anteriormente identificadas voltariam a entrar em foco.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O petr\u00f3leo Brent do Reino Unido voltou a n\u00edveis pr\u00f3ximos aos observados antes do in\u00edcio do conflito no Oriente M\u00e9dio. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113489,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[798],"tags":[4599,4982,4678,4983,4550,4672,4383,4984],"class_list":["post-119968","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical","tag-analise-tecnica","tag-brent-crude","tag-dxy","tag-energia","tag-inflacao","tag-juros-reais","tag-onequity-insights","tag-treasuries-dos-eua"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBrent Volta aos N\u00edveis Pr\u00e9-Conflito - OnEquity<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/brent-volta-aos-niveis-pre-conflito\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brent Volta aos N\u00edveis Pr\u00e9-Conflito - OnEquity\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"O petr\u00f3leo Brent do Reino Unido voltou a n\u00edveis pr\u00f3ximos aos observados antes do in\u00edcio do conflito no Oriente M\u00e9dio. 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