{"id":119534,"date":"2026-06-22T10:56:17","date_gmt":"2026-06-22T08:56:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=119534"},"modified":"2026-06-22T11:27:13","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T09:27:13","slug":"gastos-com-ia-superam-os-retornos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/gastos-com-ia-superam-os-retornos\/","title":{"rendered":"Gastos com IA Superam Os Retornos"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As hyperscalers t\u00eam estado entre os principais motores da alta do mercado acion\u00e1rio nos \u00faltimos trimestres, apoiadas por uma onda sem precedentes de investimentos em infraestrutura de intelig\u00eancia artificial. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet e Meta continuam aumentando agressivamente seus gastos de capital enquanto competem para expandir a capacidade computacional e a infraestrutura de data centers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O gasto combinado deve subir de US$ 410 bilh\u00f5es em 2025 para aproximadamente US$ 725 bilh\u00f5es neste ano, representando um aumento anual de 77%. O Goldman Sachs prev\u00ea que o investimento pode chegar a US$ 1,1 trilh\u00e3o no pr\u00f3ximo ano, contribuindo para mais de US$ 5 trilh\u00f5es em gastos acumulados entre 2025 e 2030. Nessa escala, o investimento anual representaria cerca de 3,5% do PIB dos Estados Unidos, superando o tamanho relativo de v\u00e1rios ciclos hist\u00f3ricos de expans\u00e3o de infraestrutura, incluindo o desenvolvimento ferrovi\u00e1rio e a eletrifica\u00e7\u00e3o nacional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Capex das hyperscalers<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A escala desse investimento est\u00e1 colocando uma press\u00e3o crescente sobre os fluxos de caixa corporativos. Segundo o Morgan Stanley, aproximadamente 94% do fluxo de caixa gerado por essas empresas deve ser absorvido pelos gastos de capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Amazon parece particularmente exposta. Com gastos de capital projetados em aproximadamente US$ 200 bilh\u00f5es frente a um fluxo de caixa operacional de cerca de US$ 139 bilh\u00f5es, espera-se que a empresa entre em territ\u00f3rio de fluxo de caixa livre negativo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O ciclo de investimento tamb\u00e9m est\u00e1 impulsionando uma maior depend\u00eancia dos mercados de d\u00edvida. Coletivamente, espera-se que as hyperscalers levantem aproximadamente US$ 400 bilh\u00f5es em financiamento apenas neste ano. A Meta emitiu recentemente US$ 25 bilh\u00f5es em d\u00edvida, enquanto a d\u00edvida de longo prazo da Amazon quase dobrou no \u00faltimo ano, passando de US$ 65,6 bilh\u00f5es para US$ 119,1 bilh\u00f5es. A Alphabet tamb\u00e9m esteve ativa nos mercados de capitais, emitindo US$ 30 bilh\u00f5es em d\u00edvida em fevereiro, incluindo um raro b\u00f4nus em libra esterlina com prazo de 100 anos, enquanto, segundo relatos, levantou mais US$ 80 bilh\u00f5es por meio de emiss\u00e3o de a\u00e7\u00f5es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Apesar da escala do investimento, os retornos aos acionistas t\u00eam sido mistos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No acumulado do ano, a Amazon sobe 5,80%, a Microsoft cai 21,48%, a Meta recua 12,40%, enquanto a Alphabet avan\u00e7a 17,41%. Desde o in\u00edcio de 2025, a Amazon acumula alta de 11,62%, a Microsoft cai 8,74%, a Meta recua 0,64% e a Alphabet dispara 91%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Excluindo a Alphabet, o desempenho das a\u00e7\u00f5es tem variado de modesto a decepcionante, apesar da escala extraordin\u00e1ria de aloca\u00e7\u00e3o de capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An\u00e1lise t\u00e9cnica<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Amazon voltou mais uma vez a testar sua linha de tend\u00eancia ascendente de longo prazo no gr\u00e1fico semanal, uma linha que teve origem em dezembro de 2022. Embora tenha sido brevemente rompida duas vezes nos \u00faltimos 18 meses, primeiro durante a liquida\u00e7\u00e3o impulsionada por tarifas e depois durante a escalada do conflito com o Ir\u00e3, o pre\u00e7o se recuperou consistentemente a partir da mesma regi\u00e3o, coincidindo com o suporte-chave em US$ 233.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AMZN, semanal, dezembro de 2022 at\u00e9 o presente<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No gr\u00e1fico di\u00e1rio, a queda de junho destaca a import\u00e2ncia da zona de suporte de US$ 233. N\u00edveis adicionais de suporte est\u00e3o localizados em US$ 221, US$ 212 e US$ 198. Na parte superior, a resist\u00eancia est\u00e1 posicionada em US$ 247,75, seguida por US$ 256.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Duas linhas de tend\u00eancia descendentes permanecem em vigor. A mais \u00edngreme das duas continua limitando a a\u00e7\u00e3o do pre\u00e7o e contribuiu para uma renovada press\u00e3o vendedora nas sess\u00f5es de quarta-feira e sexta-feira. Enquanto essa linha de tend\u00eancia permanecer intacta, o impulso de alta pode continuar limitado, apesar do \u00faltimo fechamento em US$ 244,25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mesmo um rompimento acima da linha de tend\u00eancia descendente deixaria a Amazon diante de resist\u00eancias significativas acima, tanto em US$ 247,75 quanto em US$ 256.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AMZN, di\u00e1rio, outubro de 2025 at\u00e9 o presente<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Os indicadores t\u00e9cnicos permanecem fracos e sugerem que a Amazon pode ter dificuldade para superar o mercado no curto prazo. Os principais n\u00edveis a monitorar continuam sendo US$ 247,75 na parte superior e US$ 233 na parte inferior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As hyperscalers t\u00eam estado entre os principais motores da alta do mercado acion\u00e1rio nos \u00faltimos trimestres, apoiadas por uma onda […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113490,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[798],"tags":[4927,4929,4930,4928,4588,4383],"class_list":["post-119534","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical","tag-amazon","tag-capex","tag-hyperscalers","tag-ia","tag-mercado-de-acoes","tag-onequity-insights"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGastos com IA Superam Os Retornos - 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