{"id":118421,"date":"2026-06-17T09:11:41","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T07:11:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=118421"},"modified":"2026-06-17T10:16:40","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T08:16:40","slug":"indice-do-dolar-usd-o-amanhecer-da-era-warsh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/indice-do-dolar-usd-o-amanhecer-da-era-warsh\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00cdndice do D\u00f3lar; In\u00edcio da Era Warsh"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Esta noite marca a primeira coletiva de imprensa de Kevin Warsh como o 17\u00ba presidente do Federal Reserve, e os mercados se preparam para uma reuni\u00e3o que ser\u00e1 t\u00e3o importante pela comunica\u00e7\u00e3o quanto pelas taxas de juros. Warsh foi confirmado em 13 de maio e tomou posse em 22 de maio, apenas algumas semanas ap\u00f3s o t\u00e9rmino do mandato de Jerome Powell. Ele herdou um comit\u00ea dividido: a decis\u00e3o de manter os juros em abril foi aprovada por 8 votos a 4, com dissid\u00eancias em dire\u00e7\u00f5es opostas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A decis\u00e3o sobre os juros em si \u00e9 amplamente considerada uma formalidade. O CME FedWatch aponta cerca de 97% de probabilidade de que o Fed mantenha sua faixa-alvo inalterada entre 3,50% e 3,75%. O que realmente torna a reuni\u00e3o desta noite relevante \u00e9 a ampla transforma\u00e7\u00e3o institucional que Warsh parece disposto a iniciar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Warsh tem criticado abertamente o modelo de forward guidance<\/em> do Fed, argumentando que sinalizar antecipadamente a trajet\u00f3ria dos juros faz com que os formuladores de pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria mantenham previs\u00f5es por mais tempo do que deveriam. Segundo ele, essa din\u00e2mica contribuiu para o erro da Fed ao classificar a infla\u00e7\u00e3o como \u201ctransit\u00f3ria\u201d em 2021 e 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sua vis\u00e3o aponta para um banco central mais enxuto e menos verborr\u00e1gico, que prefere esperar pelos dados antes de se comprometer com uma dire\u00e7\u00e3o espec\u00edfica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
O principal foco dos mercados nesta noite ser\u00e1 saber se Warsh apresentar\u00e1 seu pr\u00f3prio ponto (dot<\/em>) no Resumo de Proje\u00e7\u00f5es Econ\u00f4micas (SEP). Embora o SEP e o gr\u00e1fico de pontos devam continuar sendo publicados, n\u00e3o seria surpreendente se Warsh optasse por n\u00e3o apresentar suas pr\u00f3prias proje\u00e7\u00f5es. A decis\u00e3o teria um car\u00e1ter principalmente simb\u00f3lico, mas refor\u00e7aria sua vis\u00e3o de que os formuladores de pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria devem se concentrar mais nos dados recebidos do que em previs\u00f5es.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Enquanto isso, os pontos dos demais membros do comit\u00ea est\u00e3o se tornando mais hawkish. Espera-se que o SEP de junho mostre que o participante mediano projeta nenhum corte de juros neste ano, uma mudan\u00e7a significativa em rela\u00e7\u00e3o a mar\u00e7o, quando pelo menos um corte ainda era esperado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
O Bank of America destacou que pelo menos tr\u00eas membros do FOMC podem projetar aumentos de juros em 2026, um cen\u00e1rio que representaria uma reprecifica\u00e7\u00e3o relevante do risco em diversas classes de ativos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Se Warsh decidir n\u00e3o divulgar seu ponto e o comunicado remover qualquer vi\u00e9s de flexibiliza\u00e7\u00e3o monet\u00e1ria, os mercados receber\u00e3o uma mensagem clara: o modelo de comunica\u00e7\u00e3o da era Powell est\u00e1 sendo aposentado, e o novo presidente do Fed est\u00e1 confort\u00e1vel em usar a ambiguidade como ferramenta de pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
An\u00e1lise T\u00e9cnica<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao d\u00f3lar americano e ao \u00cdndice do D\u00f3lar (DXY), a moeda voltou a demonstrar for\u00e7a desde meados de abril.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ap\u00f3s encontrar suporte pr\u00f3ximo de 97,30 e formar um duplo fundo relativo, o \u00edndice ganhou impulso suficiente para iniciar um novo movimento de alta em dire\u00e7\u00e3o ao n\u00edvel atual de 99,55. Como resultado, agora negocia na parte superior da faixa que tem limitado os pre\u00e7os ao longo do \u00faltimo ano, cuja resist\u00eancia extrema est\u00e1 localizada em torno de 100,30.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A regi\u00e3o de 99,80 representa outro importante n\u00edvel de resist\u00eancia, que foi testado na semana passada, criando uma zona de compress\u00e3o entre 99,35 e 99,80.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Vale destacar que este \u00e9 o segundo per\u00edodo claro de consolida\u00e7\u00e3o dentro do movimento de alta mais amplo. O primeiro ocorreu entre meados de maio e o in\u00edcio de junho, quando o \u00edndice permaneceu preso entre 98,60 e 99,15\u201399,20.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n\u00cdndice do D\u00f3lar (DXY), Di\u00e1rio, setembro de 2025 \u2013 Atualidade<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Esses s\u00e3o, essencialmente, todos os n\u00edveis t\u00e9cnicos relevantes neste momento. Mesmo considerando a poss\u00edvel volatilidade ap\u00f3s a decis\u00e3o de pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria e durante a coletiva de imprensa, parece altamente improv\u00e1vel que o \u00cdndice do D\u00f3lar ultrapasse significativamente essa faixa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Por fim, vale esclarecer a vis\u00e3o atual do mercado sobre a trajet\u00f3ria dos juros.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A curva de futuros aponta para um longo per\u00edodo de estabilidade monet\u00e1ria, com apenas uma leve inclina\u00e7\u00e3o para a possibilidade de uma nova alta de juros. A partir de setembro, as probabilidades favorecem marginalmente taxas mais elevadas, embora a diferen\u00e7a permane\u00e7a pequena.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Atualmente, o mercado atribui uma probabilidade de 42,5% para uma taxa b\u00e1sica entre 3,75% e 4,00%, em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com 40,7% para o cen\u00e1rio alternativo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Esta noite marca a primeira coletiva de imprensa de Kevin Warsh como o 17\u00ba presidente do Federal Reserve, e os […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113490,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[798],"tags":[4643,4444,4819,4383,4818,4817],"class_list":["post-118421","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical","tag-dolar-americano","tag-federal-reserve","tag-kevin-warsh","tag-onequity-insights","tag-taxas-de-juros","tag-usd-index"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
\u00cdndice do D\u00f3lar; In\u00edcio da Era Warsh - OnEquity<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/indice-do-dolar-usd-o-amanhecer-da-era-warsh\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00cdndice do D\u00f3lar; In\u00edcio da Era Warsh - OnEquity\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Esta noite marca a primeira coletiva de imprensa de Kevin Warsh como o 17\u00ba presidente do Federal Reserve, e os […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/indice-do-dolar-usd-o-amanhecer-da-era-warsh\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"OnEquity\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-06-17T07:11:41+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-06-17T08:16:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Technical-Analysis-PT.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"850\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"550\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marco Turatti\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marco Turatti\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/indice-do-dolar-usd-o-amanhecer-da-era-warsh\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/indice-do-dolar-usd-o-amanhecer-da-era-warsh\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Marco Turatti\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d3e52a0ffb9417ae1b81d44a04de3be9\"},\"headline\":\"\u00cdndice do D\u00f3lar; 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