{"id":117441,"date":"2026-06-12T07:50:51","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T05:50:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=117441"},"modified":"2026-06-12T09:37:14","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T07:37:14","slug":"milho-cai-com-aumento-da-oferta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/milho-cai-com-aumento-da-oferta\/","title":{"rendered":"Milho Cai com Aumento da Oferta"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O relat\u00f3rio WASDE de junho de 2026 do Departamento de Agricultura dos Estados Unidos ofereceu pouco suporte aos mercados de gr\u00e3os. Os futuros do milho ca\u00edram para novas m\u00ednimas contratuais depois que o relat\u00f3rio trouxe poucas surpresas e deixou os traders diante da mesma realidade fundamental: a oferta abundante continua superando as press\u00f5es inflacion\u00e1rias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O cen\u00e1rio mais amplo \u00e9 especialmente relevante. As commodities agr\u00edcolas, incluindo milho, trigo, soja, algod\u00e3o e caf\u00e9, v\u00eam apresentando tend\u00eancia de queda mesmo com a acelera\u00e7\u00e3o da infla\u00e7\u00e3o na economia em geral. Essa diverg\u00eancia desafia a ideia convencional de que a alta dos pre\u00e7os ao consumidor deveria automaticamente sustentar os mercados de alimentos e produtos agr\u00edcolas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No caso do milho, a explica\u00e7\u00e3o continua sendo principalmente guiada pela oferta. O USDA projeta estoques iniciais globais para 2026\/27 acima de 303 milh\u00f5es de toneladas m\u00e9tricas e produ\u00e7\u00e3o superior a 1,3 bilh\u00e3o de toneladas m\u00e9tricas, ambos revisados para cima em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s estimativas de maio. Essa combina\u00e7\u00e3o aponta para um mercado em que a oferta ampla continua dominando a din\u00e2mica dos pre\u00e7os.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O milho tem estado entre os ativos de pior desempenho. O contrato de julho atingiu seu maior pre\u00e7o de fechamento de 2026 em 4 de maio, a US$ 4,85\u00be por bushel. Desde ent\u00e3o, condi\u00e7\u00f5es clim\u00e1ticas favor\u00e1veis e o forte avan\u00e7o do plantio provocaram press\u00e3o vendedora cont\u00ednua, levando os pre\u00e7os a m\u00ednimas de quatro meses, perto de US$ 4,32 por bushel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O avan\u00e7o do plantio nos Estados Unidos chegou a aproximadamente 93% no fim de maio, bem acima da m\u00e9dia de cinco anos. A emerg\u00eancia da safra tamb\u00e9m superou as normas sazonais, em 76%, indicando uma lavoura antecipada e amplamente estabelecida.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Temperaturas mais altas no in\u00edcio de junho devem acelerar ainda mais o desenvolvimento da safra, enquanto chuvas adicionais no oeste do Corn Belt melhoraram as condi\u00e7\u00f5es de umidade do solo e refor\u00e7aram as expectativas de rendimentos fortes. Atualmente, 67% da safra de milho nos principais estados produtores est\u00e1 classificada como boa a excelente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do lado da demanda, o relat\u00f3rio WASDE ofereceu pouco suporte. O USDA manteve inalterada sua proje\u00e7\u00e3o para os estoques finais de milho da nova safra em 1,96 bilh\u00e3o de bushels e preservou sua previs\u00e3o de pre\u00e7o m\u00e9dio recebido pelo produtor na temporada em US$ 4,40 por bushel. Enquanto isso, as estimativas para o uso de milho na produ\u00e7\u00e3o de etanol em 2025\/26 foram revisadas para baixo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Com condi\u00e7\u00f5es clim\u00e1ticas favor\u00e1veis, plantio adiantado e o USDA mantendo proje\u00e7\u00f5es otimistas de oferta, a press\u00e3o baixista sobre os pre\u00e7os do milho pode persistir durante o ver\u00e3o, a menos que condi\u00e7\u00f5es clim\u00e1ticas adversas alterem de forma relevante as expectativas de produ\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An\u00e1lise T\u00e9cnica<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O milho, que em nossa plataforma \u00e9 cotado em centavos de d\u00f3lar americano, rompeu em 29 de maio abaixo da linha de tend\u00eancia de alta que sustentava os pre\u00e7os desde agosto de 2025, em 467 centavos. O movimento seguinte foi uma queda r\u00e1pida at\u00e9 a m\u00ednima de ontem, em 431,95 centavos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Milho, Di\u00e1rio, Abr 2025 \u2013 Atualidade<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essa regi\u00e3o pode atuar como uma zona de suporte tempor\u00e1rio, aproximadamente entre 423 e 433 centavos, representando uma faixa de cerca de 2,5%. Dentro dessa zona, \u00e9 razo\u00e1vel esperar alguma realiza\u00e7\u00e3o de lucros por parte dos vendedores a descoberto e tentativas de acumula\u00e7\u00e3o por compradores que podem considerar esses n\u00edveis atraentes, especialmente considerando que, como mencionado acima, a previs\u00e3o de pre\u00e7o m\u00e9dio da temporada do USDA est\u00e1 em torno de 440 centavos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dito isso, acreditamos que existe uma possibilidade realista de mais uma perna de queda. A pr\u00f3xima grande \u00e1rea de suporte est\u00e1 um pouco mais abaixo, entre 400 e 408 centavos. Os indicadores t\u00e9cnicos continuam enfraquecendo, mas ainda n\u00e3o chegaram ao territ\u00f3rio de sobrevenda. Enquanto isso, as m\u00e9dias m\u00f3veis de 21 e 50 dias conclu\u00edram recentemente um cruzamento baixista.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Em resumo, acreditamos que a queda atual pode passar por uma desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o ou pausa tempor\u00e1ria n\u00e3o muito distante dos n\u00edveis atuais antes de retomar sua trajet\u00f3ria descendente nas pr\u00f3ximas semanas, possivelmente mirando a zona de suporte inferior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O relat\u00f3rio WASDE de junho de 2026 do Departamento de Agricultura dos Estados Unidos ofereceu pouco suporte aos mercados de […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113490,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[798],"tags":[4599,4712,4550,4715,4713,4383,4714],"class_list":["post-117441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical","tag-analise-tecnica","tag-commodities-agricolas","tag-inflacao","tag-mercados-de-commodities","tag-milho","tag-onequity-insights","tag-usda-wasde"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMilho Cai com Aumento da Oferta - 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