{"id":116711,"date":"2026-05-27T08:46:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T06:46:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=116711"},"modified":"2026-06-02T10:09:37","modified_gmt":"2026-06-02T08:09:37","slug":"mcdonalds-consumo-dos-eua-enfraquece","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/mcdonalds-consumo-dos-eua-enfraquece\/","title":{"rendered":"McDonald\u2019s; Consumo dos EUA Enfraquece"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As tr\u00eas a\u00e7\u00f5es com pior desempenho dentro do DJ30 nos \u00faltimos tr\u00eas meses pertencem ao setor de Consumo e Bens de Consumo Essenciais: Nike, Home Depot e McDonald’s. Isso \u00e9 particularmente relevante considerando que o consumo das fam\u00edlias representa cerca de 70% do PIB dos Estados Unidos, em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com aproximadamente 53% no bloco europeu. A fraqueza observada em grandes empresas ligadas ao consumo pode, portanto, fornecer sinais importantes sobre a real condi\u00e7\u00e3o da economia americana e sobre a sustentabilidade da for\u00e7a recente do mercado acion\u00e1rio al\u00e9m do atual ciclo de investimentos em intelig\u00eancia artificial que impulsiona as grandes empresas de tecnologia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Confian\u00e7a do Consumidor UoM, FRED.org<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O consumidor americano continua longe do otimismo. Os dois indicadores mais acompanhados nessa \u00e1rea s\u00e3o o Consumer Sentiment, publicado pela Universidade de Michigan, e o Consumer Confidence, divulgado pelo Conference Board. O \u00edndice da Universidade de Michigan atingiu 49,8 em abril, dado mais recente dispon\u00edvel, permanecendo pr\u00f3ximo das m\u00ednimas hist\u00f3ricas desde o in\u00edcio da s\u00e9rie em 1978.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ainda no final de 2019, antes da pandemia de Covid, o \u00edndice estava pr\u00f3ximo da marca de 100 e nunca conseguiu se recuperar totalmente desde ent\u00e3o. Os n\u00edveis atuais est\u00e3o at\u00e9 abaixo dos registrados durante recess\u00f5es recentes, incluindo a Crise Financeira Global de 2008. Isso contrasta fortemente com a resili\u00eancia atualmente observada nos mercados acion\u00e1rios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cAs respostas escritas dos consumidores sobre fatores que afetam a economia continuaram inclinadas ao pessimismo em maio, enquanto as avalia\u00e7\u00f5es sobre a situa\u00e7\u00e3o financeira atual e futura das fam\u00edlias ficaram um pouco menos positivas. As refer\u00eancias a pre\u00e7os e petr\u00f3leo e g\u00e1s aumentaram pelo segundo m\u00eas consecutivo. Dois ter\u00e7os dos consumidores afirmaram estar reduzindo gastos devido \u00e0 alta dos pre\u00e7os. A maioria comprou menos itens e adiou compras caras. Os consumidores planejam economizar em roupas, cal\u00e7ados, itens de hobby e brinquedos.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Esse trecho foi retirado diretamente do relat\u00f3rio mais recente do Conference Board e destaca a press\u00e3o cont\u00ednua sobre a confian\u00e7a do consumidor. Embora a deteriora\u00e7\u00e3o ainda seja menos severa do que durante a Crise Financeira Global, os dados continuam apontando para um ambiente de consumo significativamente enfraquecido nos \u00faltimos anos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As duas institui\u00e7\u00f5es utilizam metodologias diferentes, e a s\u00e9rie do Conference Board \u00e9 consideravelmente mais curta. Ainda assim, um ponto importante \u00e9 que as expectativas dos consumidores continuam abaixo das condi\u00e7\u00f5es atuais h\u00e1 v\u00e1rios anos, sugerindo cautela em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s perspectivas econ\u00f4micas de longo prazo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cdndice de Confian\u00e7a do Consumidor, The Conference Board<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Esta an\u00e1lise est\u00e1 focada em McDonald’s, enquanto Home Depot e Nike ser\u00e3o analisadas separadamente em relat\u00f3rios futuros.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An\u00e1lise T\u00e9cnica<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do lado t\u00e9cnico, MCD caiu 19,81% desde a m\u00e1xima de mar\u00e7o em US$ 339,85, atingindo uma m\u00ednima recente em US$ 271,97 antes de se recuperar nas \u00faltimas sess\u00f5es e fechar ontem em US$ 279,26. No entanto, a estrutura mais ampla no gr\u00e1fico semanal permanece intacta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MCD, Semanal, 2020 – Atual<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nos \u00faltimos seis anos, MCD continuou em tend\u00eancia de alta de forma relativamente organizada. Embora a a\u00e7\u00e3o n\u00e3o tenha entregue os retornos excepcionais observados no setor de tecnologia, ainda acumula valoriza\u00e7\u00e3o pr\u00f3xima de 45% desde dezembro de 2019, excluindo o impacto da pandemia, mesmo ap\u00f3s a corre\u00e7\u00e3o atual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No momento, a a\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e1 sendo negociada pr\u00f3xima ao limite inferior desse canal de longo prazo e reagiu a partir de uma zona de suporte ao redor de US$ 275. O canal ainda poderia se estender um pouco mais para baixo e tecnicamente n\u00e3o seria rompido mesmo se o pre\u00e7o ca\u00edsse para a regi\u00e3o de US$ 265.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A estrutura atual sugere que a\u00e7\u00f5es defensivas como MCD podem se tornar cada vez mais relevantes para monitoramento, especialmente em caso de realiza\u00e7\u00e3o de lucros no setor de tecnologia e uma rota\u00e7\u00e3o setorial mais ampla. Se os grandes componentes de tecnologia do \u00edndice sofrerem quedas acentuadas, o mercado como um todo provavelmente enfrentar\u00e1 press\u00e3o e o sentimento negativo poder\u00e1 se espalhar tamb\u00e9m para a\u00e7\u00f5es como McDonald’s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mesmo assim, a press\u00e3o vendedora em empresas defensivas de consumo pode se mostrar menos agressiva, oferecendo certo grau de prote\u00e7\u00e3o relativa. Al\u00e9m disso, como a a\u00e7\u00e3o n\u00e3o est\u00e1 pr\u00f3xima das m\u00e1ximas hist\u00f3ricas, existem mais refer\u00eancias t\u00e9cnicas dispon\u00edveis para uma an\u00e1lise gr\u00e1fica mais ampla.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As tr\u00eas a\u00e7\u00f5es com pior desempenho dentro do DJ30 nos \u00faltimos tr\u00eas meses pertencem ao setor de Consumo e Bens […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113490,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[798],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-116711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMcDonald\u2019s; 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