As elei\u00e7\u00f5es locais de 7 de maio representaram um golpe s\u00edsmico para o governo de Keir Starmer, cuja recupera\u00e7\u00e3o parece longe de ser simples. O Partido Trabalhista perdeu 1.121 conselheiros e o controle de 28 conselhos, enquanto o Reform UK conquistou 1.257 cadeiras e assumiu o controle de 10 conselhos. Enquanto isso, os Verdes registraram ganhos hist\u00f3ricos, incluindo vit\u00f3rias em v\u00e1rios distritos de Londres. As consequ\u00eancias pol\u00edticas foram imediatas e severas: cerca de 30 deputados trabalhistas pediram publicamente uma mudan\u00e7a de lideran\u00e7a ou um cronograma para a ren\u00fancia de Starmer, enquanto o secret\u00e1rio de Sa\u00fade, Wes Streeting, deixou o gabinete afirmando que havia \u201cperdido a confian\u00e7a\u201d na lideran\u00e7a de Starmer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Para os mercados financeiros, a preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 menos com as figuras pol\u00edticas e mais com o que pode vir em termos de pol\u00edtica fiscal. Um novo l\u00edder trabalhista \u2014 e, portanto, um novo primeiro-ministro \u2014 provavelmente significaria tamb\u00e9m um novo chanceler. Sob press\u00e3o para levar o partido mais \u00e0 esquerda, esse chanceler poderia adotar uma postura fiscal mais expansionista, possivelmente implicando regras fiscais mais flex\u00edveis e maior endividamento. O pr\u00f3ximo Or\u00e7amento de Outono n\u00e3o est\u00e1 previsto at\u00e9 outubro ou novembro e, por enquanto, o d\u00e9ficit do ano fiscal de 2025 ainda deve ficar em 4,3%, abaixo da estimativa de 4,5% do Office for Budget Responsibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
O mercado de t\u00edtulos brit\u00e2nicos, no entanto, j\u00e1 se encontrava em um estado fr\u00e1gil. Os rendimentos dos t\u00edtulos de 10 anos ultrapassaram 5% pela primeira vez desde 2008, enquanto o rendimento dos t\u00edtulos de 30 anos atingiu o n\u00edvel mais alto desde 1998. Esse movimento foi impulsionado por uma combina\u00e7\u00e3o das ambi\u00e7\u00f5es de gasto do Partido Trabalhista, infla\u00e7\u00e3o persistente e press\u00f5es de oferta decorrentes do programa cont\u00ednuo de aperto quantitativo do Banco da Inglaterra, atualmente em torno de \u00a3100 bilh\u00f5es por ano. Compara\u00e7\u00f5es com o mini-or\u00e7amento de Liz Truss, em setembro de 2022, t\u00eam sido inevit\u00e1veis, mas h\u00e1 diferen\u00e7as importantes. A demanda de investidores estrangeiros permanece s\u00f3lida e, crucialmente, o atual aumento dos rendimentos tem sido gradual, e n\u00e3o um choque repentino como o epis\u00f3dio de 2022, agravado por uma crise de liquidez em fundos de pens\u00e3o. A atual venda tamb\u00e9m parece ser mais impulsionada por fatores globais, com rendimentos em alta nas principais economias e o choque energ\u00e9tico no Oriente M\u00e9dio atuando como principal catalisador, em vez de uma perda espec\u00edfica de credibilidade fiscal do Reino Unido.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
O crescimento subjacente do PIB est\u00e1 abaixo das estimativas do Banco da Inglaterra, enquanto a taxa de desemprego subiu para 4,9% no per\u00edodo de dezembro de 2025 a fevereiro de 2026 e deve avan\u00e7ar para 5,1% no segundo trimestre de 2026. Ainda assim, a queda da infla\u00e7\u00e3o anual para 2,8% nesta manh\u00e3 foi uma surpresa extremamente positiva para o banco central. De qualquer forma, as expectativas do mercado para a pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria est\u00e3o mudando para um ciclo de afrouxamento mais curto e cauteloso. Alguns dos cortes de juros anteriormente esperados j\u00e1 n\u00e3o est\u00e3o totalmente precificados, enquanto uma pequena parcela dos participantes do mercado come\u00e7a at\u00e9 a considerar a possibilidade de alta. Em \u00faltima an\u00e1lise, a dire\u00e7\u00e3o depender\u00e1 de se o recente choque nos pre\u00e7os de energia ser\u00e1 transit\u00f3rio e, principalmente, de quanta incerteza pol\u00edtica a temporada do Or\u00e7amento de Outono trar\u00e1 para um mercado de t\u00edtulos j\u00e1 inst\u00e1vel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
An\u00e1lise T\u00e9cnica<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Mas como a libra esterlina e o GBPUSD est\u00e3o reagindo a tudo isso? Na pr\u00e1tica, continuam negociando de forma lateral, como v\u00eam fazendo desde abril de 2025, principalmente dentro de uma ampla faixa entre 1,3150 e 1,3650, onde o mercado parece ter encontrado um equil\u00edbrio tempor\u00e1rio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dentro dessa faixa, dois n\u00edveis adicionais parecem particularmente importantes: 1,3325 e 1,3500. Ambos tiveram papel relevante na recente a\u00e7\u00e3o de pre\u00e7o, que viu a libra enfraquecer desde um teste da regi\u00e3o de 1,3650 at\u00e9 o n\u00edvel atual de 1,3382 (-0,05% hoje). O n\u00edvel de 1,35 vinha funcionando como suporte ao longo de abril, e sua quebra levou o par at\u00e9 1,3325 em apenas duas sess\u00f5es, antes de uma recupera\u00e7\u00e3o moderada nesta semana. Fala-se muito sobre insiders no mercado, e talvez algu\u00e9m j\u00e1 tivesse antecipado corretamente os dados de infla\u00e7\u00e3o divulgados nesta manh\u00e3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
GBPUSD, Di\u00e1rio, mar de 2025 at\u00e9 agora<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dito isso, apesar da alta dos rendimentos na ponta longa da curva, do ponto de vista t\u00e9cnico acreditamos que o movimento de queda do GBPUSD pode continuar em dire\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 regi\u00e3o mencionada, logo abaixo de 1,32 nos pr\u00f3ximos dias \u2014 embora, como sempre, muito depender\u00e1 do d\u00f3lar americano. A situa\u00e7\u00e3o tamb\u00e9m n\u00e3o muda muito frente ao euro, onde, mais uma vez, o par permanece comprimido dentro de um intervalo h\u00e1 v\u00e1rios meses, neste caso aproximadamente entre 0,86 e 0,8750 (0,8663 atualmente).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
As elei\u00e7\u00f5es locais de 7 de maio representaram um golpe s\u00edsmico para o governo de Keir Starmer, cuja recupera\u00e7\u00e3o parece […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113490,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[798],"tags":[3696,3697,4230],"class_list":["post-116434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical","tag-currencies-pt-tag","tag-dollar-pt","tag-gbpusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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