A trajet\u00f3ria monet\u00e1ria do Jap\u00e3o em 2026 \u00e9, possivelmente, a mais relevante entre as economias do G7. Ap\u00f3s d\u00e9cadas de defla\u00e7\u00e3o, o pa\u00eds passa agora por um ciclo inflacion\u00e1rio impulsionado pela demanda, sustentado por um crescimento consistente dos sal\u00e1rios, o que tem levado a uma resposta gradual, por\u00e9m clara, por parte do Banco do Jap\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
O BoJ reafirmou que um ciclo de aumentos moderados de sal\u00e1rios e pre\u00e7os deve persistir, com a probabilidade de atingir de forma sustent\u00e1vel sua meta de infla\u00e7\u00e3o de 2% continuando a aumentar. As negocia\u00e7\u00f5es salariais de primavera (Shunto) resultaram em aumentos significativos pelo terceiro ano consecutivo, fornecendo uma base fundamental para um maior aperto da pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Na reuni\u00e3o de abril, o BoJ manteve as taxas inalteradas em 0,75%, mas revisou para cima sua proje\u00e7\u00e3o de infla\u00e7\u00e3o n\u00facleo para 2,8%. Ao mesmo tempo, reduziu sua proje\u00e7\u00e3o de crescimento para o ano fiscal de 2026 para 0,5%, refletindo a press\u00e3o dos altos pre\u00e7os do petr\u00f3leo sobre as margens corporativas e a renda real das fam\u00edlias. Isso introduz uma din\u00e2mica moderada de estagfla\u00e7\u00e3o, complicando o timing de futuras eleva\u00e7\u00f5es de juros.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A curva de t\u00edtulos do governo japon\u00eas refor\u00e7a essa mudan\u00e7a. As expectativas de maior aperto monet\u00e1rio, combinadas com preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es fiscais sob a postura expansionista da primeira-ministra Takaichi, elevaram o rendimento dos JGBs de 10 anos acima de 2,5% pela primeira vez desde 1997. A parte longa da curva continua se inclinando, \u00e0 medida que aumentam as preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es com a sustentabilidade da d\u00edvida.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A zona do euro entrou em 2026 em uma trajet\u00f3ria desinflacion\u00e1ria. A infla\u00e7\u00e3o cheia caiu para 1,7% em janeiro, apoiada por uma modera\u00e7\u00e3o no crescimento salarial, enquanto o Banco Central Europeu concluiu um ciclo de cortes de juros que levou a taxa de dep\u00f3sito para aproximadamente 2,15%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Esse cen\u00e1rio mudou ap\u00f3s a retomada das tens\u00f5es geopol\u00edticas no Oriente M\u00e9dio. Em abril, a infla\u00e7\u00e3o acelerou para 3%, seu n\u00edvel mais alto desde setembro de 2023, impulsionada principalmente por um aumento de 10,9% nos pre\u00e7os de energia. A press\u00e3o inflacion\u00e1ria se ampliou nas principais economias, incluindo Alemanha, Fran\u00e7a, Espanha e It\u00e1lia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Apesar disso, a din\u00e2mica salarial permanece contida. O indicador de sal\u00e1rios do BCE aponta crescimento negociado de 2,6% em 2026, abaixo dos 3,0% de 2025 e bem inferior aos picos p\u00f3s-pandemia. Embora as expectativas de infla\u00e7\u00e3o de curto prazo tenham subido acentuadamente, as expectativas de longo prazo permanecem ancoradas pr\u00f3ximas de 2%. Isso explica a decis\u00e3o do BCE de manter os juros est\u00e1veis, em vez de retomar o aperto monet\u00e1rio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Se o BoJ avan\u00e7ar com novas eleva\u00e7\u00f5es de juros na segunda metade do ano e caminhar em dire\u00e7\u00e3o a 1%, com uma trajet\u00f3ria de longo prazo rumo \u00e0 taxa neutra estimada de 1,5%, o diferencial de juros com a zona do euro tende a diminuir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Como resultado, o carry trade que sustentou o EURJPY provavelmente come\u00e7ar\u00e1 a se desfazer gradualmente, gerando press\u00e3o de queda sobre o par.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
An\u00e1lise T\u00e9cnica<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Os participantes do mercado est\u00e3o cada vez mais sinalizando intoler\u00e2ncia a uma maior desvaloriza\u00e7\u00e3o do iene. N\u00edveis acima de 160 frente ao d\u00f3lar americano est\u00e3o sob forte monitoramento e j\u00e1 provocaram m\u00faltiplas interven\u00e7\u00f5es, incluindo um epis\u00f3dio relevante h\u00e1 duas semanas. Considerando a for\u00e7a relativa do euro frente ao d\u00f3lar nos \u00faltimos anos, isso corresponde aproximadamente \u00e0 faixa de 186 a 187 no EURJPY.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As interven\u00e7\u00f5es de 30 de abril e a a\u00e7\u00e3o mais moderada de 5 de maio est\u00e3o claramente refletidas em duas grandes velas de baixa no gr\u00e1fico di\u00e1rio. Mesmo na aus\u00eancia de interven\u00e7\u00e3o, o pre\u00e7o rejeitou repetidamente o n\u00edvel de 186,50, com corre\u00e7\u00f5es acentuadas para 182 em 23 de janeiro e 180,75 em 9 de fevereiro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Esses n\u00edveis permanecem cr\u00edticos. Mais importante, a tend\u00eancia de alta iniciada em fevereiro de 2025 parece ter sido rompida. Isso sugere uma desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o do momentum altista. Embora isso n\u00e3o indique necessariamente uma revers\u00e3o imediata, geralmente precede uma fase de consolida\u00e7\u00e3o que pode eventualmente evoluir para queda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
O pre\u00e7o atualmente testa a m\u00e9dia m\u00f3vel de 50 dias e negocia abaixo da m\u00e9dia m\u00f3vel de 21 dias, enquanto o MACD virou negativo. Embora posi\u00e7\u00f5es compradas em iene ainda sejam pouco atrativas do ponto de vista de carry, o cen\u00e1rio macro e t\u00e9cnico mais amplo sugere que esse fator pode se tornar menos relevante.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
O iene japon\u00eas pode estar se aproximando de uma fase n\u00e3o vista desde 2017, caracterizada por estabiliza\u00e7\u00e3o e poss\u00edvel retomada de for\u00e7a.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A trajet\u00f3ria monet\u00e1ria do Jap\u00e3o em 2026 \u00e9, possivelmente, a mais relevante entre as economias do G7. Ap\u00f3s d\u00e9cadas de […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113490,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[798],"tags":[3696,4322,4320,4321,4229],"class_list":["post-115734","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical","tag-currencies-pt-tag","tag-currencymarkets","tag-eurjpy","tag-forex","tag-fx"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
EURJPY Perde Momentum - OnEquity<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/eurjpy-perde-momentum\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EURJPY Perde Momentum - OnEquity\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A trajet\u00f3ria monet\u00e1ria do Jap\u00e3o em 2026 \u00e9, possivelmente, a mais relevante entre as economias do G7. 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