{"id":115666,"date":"2026-05-13T08:36:19","date_gmt":"2026-05-13T06:36:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=115666"},"modified":"2026-05-13T11:05:43","modified_gmt":"2026-05-13T09:05:43","slug":"euraud-cai-com-divergencia-de-politicas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/euraud-cai-com-divergencia-de-politicas\/","title":{"rendered":"EURAUD Cai com Diverg\u00eancia de Pol\u00edticas"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
O EURAUD continua a refletir a crescente diverg\u00eancia entre as perspetivas macroecon\u00f3micas da zona euro e da Austr\u00e1lia, \u00e0 medida que pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria, exposi\u00e7\u00e3o energ\u00e9tica e din\u00e2mica das commodities moldam cada vez mais o desempenho relativo das moedas. Enquanto a zona euro enfrenta crescimento fraco e elevada sensibilidade energ\u00e9tica, a Austr\u00e1lia continua beneficiando-se de atividade dom\u00e9stica resiliente e forte apoio ligado \u00e0s commodities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A zona euro permanece uma economia ampla e diversificada, mas fortemente dependente de importa\u00e7\u00f5es de energia, tornando-se vulner\u00e1vel a choques nas commodities. A Austr\u00e1lia, por outro lado, \u00e9 exportadora de recursos naturais e beneficia diretamente de pre\u00e7os elevados de energia, min\u00e9rio de ferro e g\u00e1s natural liquefeito.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Essa diverg\u00eancia tornou-se mais evidente em 2026. A economia australiana cresceu 2,6% em termos anuais no quarto trimestre, o ritmo mais forte em dois anos. Em contraste, as proje\u00e7\u00f5es do BCE em mar\u00e7o reduziram o crescimento do PIB da zona euro para 0,9% em 2026, refletindo o impacto dos custos elevados de energia sobre consumo e confian\u00e7a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As tens\u00f5es geopol\u00edticas no Oriente M\u00e9dio refor\u00e7aram ainda mais esse desequil\u00edbrio. Pre\u00e7os elevados da energia favorecem os termos de troca australianos, enquanto comprimem margens corporativas e rendimento das fam\u00edlias europeias. O cen\u00e1rio macro continua, portanto, favor\u00e1vel ao d\u00f3lar australiano frente ao euro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria permanece o principal fator por tr\u00e1s da tend\u00eancia de baixa do EURAUD. O Reserve Bank of Australia elevou a taxa de juros para 4,35% na terceira alta consecutiva do ano, com forte apoio interno \u00e0 decis\u00e3o. A infla\u00e7\u00e3o cheia dever\u00e1 atingir pico de 4,8% em meados de 2026, enquanto a infla\u00e7\u00e3o core deve permanecer acima de 3% at\u00e9 meados de 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Em contraste, o BCE manteve os juros inalterados num ambiente de estagfla\u00e7\u00e3o. As expectativas de infla\u00e7\u00e3o foram revistas para 2,7% em 2026, enquanto as previs\u00f5es de crescimento permanecem pr\u00f3ximas de 1,0%, limitando a flexibilidade da pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
O diferencial de yields entre t\u00edtulos australianos e europeus aumentou para cerca de 130 pontos-base. Combinado com crescimento mais forte e apoio das commodities, isso continua a pressionar o EURAUD para baixo. Salvo melhoria significativa nas condi\u00e7\u00f5es energ\u00e9ticas da Europa ou mudan\u00e7a de postura do RBA, o vi\u00e9s permanece negativo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
An\u00e1lise T\u00e9cnica<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
O EURAUD aproxima-se de uma zona cr\u00edtica de suporte entre 1,6150 e 1,6000. Historicamente, esta \u00e1rea ofereceu forte suporte, com o pre\u00e7o mantendo-se acima desse intervalo durante grande parte de 2023 e 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abaixo dessa zona, o pr\u00f3ximo n\u00edvel importante encontra-se perto de 1,5300, com suporte interm\u00e9dio em torno de 1,5860.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ap\u00f3s formar um m\u00ednimo em 1,6127 a 11 de mar\u00e7o, o par recuperou at\u00e9 \u00e0 resist\u00eancia em 1,6800 antes de retomar a tend\u00eancia de baixa. O n\u00edvel de 1,6450 permanece uma refer\u00eancia secund\u00e1ria importante.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Os indicadores t\u00e9cnicos continuam negativos. As m\u00e9dias m\u00f3veis seguem descendentes e cruzaram em baixa, com a m\u00e9dia de curto prazo abaixo da de longo prazo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Um novo teste da regi\u00e3o de 1,6150 parece prov\u00e1vel, com o par atualmente perto de 1,6219. A rea\u00e7\u00e3o do mercado nessa zona ser\u00e1 determinante para a dire\u00e7\u00e3o de curto prazo. Um potencial duplo fundo pode atrair compradores, impulsionando um movimento corretivo em dire\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 m\u00e9dia m\u00f3vel de 21 dias em 1,6325 e \u00e0 m\u00e9dia de 50 dias em 1,6420. Esta \u00faltima coincide tamb\u00e9m com uma linha de tend\u00eancia descendente ativa desde novembro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ainda assim, tanto o cen\u00e1rio macroecon\u00f3mico quanto a estrutura t\u00e9cnica continuam a favorecer riscos de queda. Uma quebra abaixo do suporte poder\u00e1 abrir caminho para o n\u00edvel psicol\u00f3gico de 1,6000, com poss\u00edvel extens\u00e3o at\u00e9 1,5860. A evolu\u00e7\u00e3o do pre\u00e7o determinar\u00e1 se um movimento mais profundo em dire\u00e7\u00e3o a 1,5300 se tornar\u00e1 cada vez mais prov\u00e1vel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
O EURAUD continua a refletir a crescente diverg\u00eancia entre as perspetivas macroecon\u00f3micas da zona euro e da Austr\u00e1lia, \u00e0 medida […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113490,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[798],"tags":[4312,3696,4309,4310,4307,4308,4311],"class_list":["post-115666","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical","tag-australiandollar","tag-currencies-pt-tag","tag-ecb","tag-eurozone","tag-forexmarket","tag-rba","tag-technicalanalysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
EURAUD Cai com Diverg\u00eancia de Pol\u00edticas - OnEquity<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/euraud-cai-com-divergencia-de-politicas\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EURAUD Cai com Diverg\u00eancia de Pol\u00edticas - OnEquity\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"O EURAUD continua a refletir a crescente diverg\u00eancia entre as perspetivas macroecon\u00f3micas da zona euro e da Austr\u00e1lia, \u00e0 medida […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/euraud-cai-com-divergencia-de-politicas\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"OnEquity\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-05-13T06:36:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-05-13T09:05:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Technical-Analysis-PT.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"850\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"550\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marco Turatti\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marco Turatti\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/euraud-cai-com-divergencia-de-politicas\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/euraud-cai-com-divergencia-de-politicas\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Marco Turatti\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d3e52a0ffb9417ae1b81d44a04de3be9\"},\"headline\":\"EURAUD Cai com Diverg\u00eancia de Pol\u00edticas\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-05-13T06:36:19+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-05-13T09:05:43+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/euraud-cai-com-divergencia-de-politicas\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":663,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/euraud-cai-com-divergencia-de-politicas\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/Technical-Analysis-PT.png\",\"keywords\":[\"AustralianDollar\",\"Currencies\",\"ECB\",\"Eurozone\",\"ForexMarket\",\"RBA\",\"TechnicalAnalysis\"],\"articleSection\":[\"An\u00e1lise T\u00e9cnica Di\u00e1ria\"],\"inLanguage\":\"pt\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/euraud-cai-com-divergencia-de-politicas\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/euraud-cai-com-divergencia-de-politicas\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/pt\\\/euraud-cai-com-divergencia-de-politicas\\\/\",\"name\":\"EURAUD Cai com Diverg\u00eancia de Pol\u00edticas - 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