{"id":110984,"date":"2026-03-09T08:00:55","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T06:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/?p=50127"},"modified":"2026-03-09T10:15:37","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T10:15:37","slug":"brent-dispara-29-spread-com-o-wti-chega-brevemente-a-0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/brent-dispara-29-spread-com-o-wti-chega-brevemente-a-0\/","title":{"rendered":"Brent dispara 29%, spread com o WTI chega brevemente a 0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Na manh\u00e3 de hoje, o petr\u00f3leo Brent<\/strong> disparou 29%<\/strong>, alcan\u00e7ando US$119,50 por barril<\/strong>, chegando momentaneamente a igualar o spread com o WTI<\/strong> \u2014 normalmente positivo \u2014 aproximando-o de zero<\/strong>. A m\u00e1xima intradi\u00e1ria do petr\u00f3leo norte-americano foi US$119,40<\/strong>. Esse in\u00edcio de semana turbulento soma-se aos ganhos registrados nas \u00faltimas cinco sess\u00f5es de negocia\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong>, que totalizam 35%<\/strong> \u2014 o maior avan\u00e7o na hist\u00f3ria do mercado de futuros desde o in\u00edcio dos registros, em 1983<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Durante o fim de semana, no s\u00e1bado, o Kuwait<\/strong> anunciou cortes em sua atividade de produ\u00e7\u00e3o e refino, sem especificar a magnitude exata. O quinto maior produtor da OPEP<\/strong> normalmente produz cerca de 2,6 milh\u00f5es de barris por dia<\/strong>. Ao mesmo tempo, a atividade de extra\u00e7\u00e3o no Iraque<\/strong> est\u00e1 colapsando devido \u00e0 falta de capacidade de armazenamento, com pelo menos 1,5 milh\u00e3o de barris por dia<\/strong> efetivamente retirados do mercado, j\u00e1 que a produ\u00e7\u00e3o nos principais campos do sul caiu aproximadamente 70%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ainda nesta manh\u00e3, a Bapco Energy<\/strong>, no Bahrein<\/strong> \u2014 a maior empresa de petr\u00f3leo do pa\u00eds \u2014 e a QatarEnergy<\/strong> declararam for\u00e7a maior<\/strong>. Trata-se de um conceito jur\u00eddico utilizado em contratos para justificar o n\u00e3o cumprimento de obriga\u00e7\u00f5es quando eventos extraordin\u00e1rios, fora do controle das partes, tornam a execu\u00e7\u00e3o imposs\u00edvel ou impratic\u00e1vel. Na pr\u00e1tica, isso significa: n\u00e3o entregaremos mais petr\u00f3leo sem sofrer penalidades legais<\/strong>, e em muitos casos pagamentos feitos antecipadamente n\u00e3o ser\u00e3o reembolsados<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No momento da reda\u00e7\u00e3o, tanto o WTI<\/strong> quanto o Brent<\/strong> recuaram dos n\u00edveis vertiginosos atingidos poucas horas atr\u00e1s \u2014 patamares n\u00e3o vistos desde a invas\u00e3o da Ucr\u00e2nia em 2022<\/strong> \u2014 e est\u00e3o sendo negociados atualmente em +11,90%<\/strong> e +14,42%<\/strong>, respectivamente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

An\u00e1lise T\u00e9cnica<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Antes de observar o gr\u00e1fico do Brent<\/strong>, dada a extrema volatilidade, \u00e9 \u00fatil examinar primeiro o spread Brent\u2013WTI<\/strong>. Os dois contratos obviamente apresentam comportamentos de pre\u00e7o semelhantes, embora n\u00e3o id\u00eanticos. A compara\u00e7\u00e3o de suas s\u00e9ries hist\u00f3ricas pode ser considerada relativamente estacion\u00e1ria, criando uma oportunidade s\u00f3lida para opera\u00e7\u00f5es de spread trading<\/strong> \u2014 comprar um contrato enquanto simultaneamente se vende o outro, reduzindo o risco direcional e negociando a diverg\u00eancia entre ambos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spread Brent \u2013 WTI, 2021 \u2013 Agora<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Como mostrado no gr\u00e1fico abaixo, desde pelo menos 2021<\/strong>, Brent e WTI t\u00eam negociado dentro de uma faixa de spread aproximada entre US$0 e US$7<\/strong>. O benchmark Brent do Reino Unido<\/strong> normalmente negocia com pr\u00eamio em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao WTI onshore<\/strong>, o que significa que geralmente \u00e9 mais caro. Como em qualquer s\u00e9rie temporal limitada por faixa, o spread tende a oscilar de um lado para o outro dentro desse intervalo. Durante essas sess\u00f5es altamente vol\u00e1teis, o pr\u00f3prio spread tamb\u00e9m apresentou movimentos extremos, variando significativamente de uma sess\u00e3o para outra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ainda na segunda-feira passada<\/strong>, o spread havia se ampliado para US$7,80<\/strong>, enquanto nesta manh\u00e3 \u2014 apenas cinco sess\u00f5es depois<\/strong> \u2014 testou brevemente US$0<\/strong>, como mencionado anteriormente. No momento, ele volta a se ampliar rapidamente para cerca de US$4,50<\/strong> (o gr\u00e1fico abaixo apresenta ligeiro atraso). Nossa hip\u00f3tese de trabalho \u00e9 que, nas pr\u00f3ximas horas fren\u00e9ticas, o spread pode voltar a se expandir em dire\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 regi\u00e3o de US$6\u2013US$6,50<\/strong>. Do ponto de vista operacional, isso implicaria comprar Brent e simultaneamente vender WTI<\/strong> para se beneficiar desse alargamento.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Voltando ao gr\u00e1fico padr\u00e3o do Brent<\/strong>, apresentamos apenas o timeframe semanal<\/strong> para destacar a natureza explosiva do movimento. Ap\u00f3s a quebra da linha de tend\u00eancia de baixa que estava em vigor desde 2023<\/strong>, o pre\u00e7o rapidamente superou todos os principais n\u00edveis de resist\u00eancia \u2014 US$78,50\u2013US$80,50<\/strong>, depois US$94<\/strong> \u2014 e nesta manh\u00e3 alcan\u00e7ou a zona de m\u00e1ximas de 2022<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UK Brent, Semanal, 2020 \u2013 Agora<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

No momento, o RSI semanal<\/strong> est\u00e1 fortemente sobrecomprado<\/strong>, e o candle atualmente em forma\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 um spinning top muito longo<\/strong>. Em resumo, as oscila\u00e7\u00f5es di\u00e1rias \u2014 frequentemente ocorrendo em poucas horas \u2014 s\u00e3o extremamente violentas, permitindo oportunidades agressivas de trading tanto na compra quanto na venda<\/strong>. No entanto, apesar da situa\u00e7\u00e3o atual e do fluxo constante de not\u00edcias aparentemente favor\u00e1veis ao petr\u00f3leo, assumir uma posi\u00e7\u00e3o comprada direta neste est\u00e1gio n\u00e3o parece particularmente prudente<\/strong>. Em nossa vis\u00e3o, operar o spread continua sendo a abordagem prefer\u00edvel<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is this conversation helpful so far?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Na manh\u00e3 de hoje, o petr\u00f3leo Brent disparou 29%, alcan\u00e7ando US$119,50 por barril, chegando momentaneamente a igualar o spread com […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":104004,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[798],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-110984","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBrent dispara 29%, spread com o WTI chega brevemente a 0 - 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