{"id":108533,"date":"2026-02-03T00:26:02","date_gmt":"2026-02-02T22:26:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/?p=47676"},"modified":"2026-02-03T01:01:51","modified_gmt":"2026-02-03T01:01:51","slug":"rba-sinaliza-alta-de-juros-em-fevereiro-com-pressao-inflacionaria-em-aceleracao","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/rba-sinaliza-alta-de-juros-em-fevereiro-com-pressao-inflacionaria-em-aceleracao\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA sinaliza alta de juros em fevereiro com press\u00e3o inflacion\u00e1ria em acelera\u00e7\u00e3o"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

O Banco da Reserva da Austr\u00e1lia (RBA) \u00e9 amplamente esperado elevar a taxa b\u00e1sica de juros em 25 pontos-base, para 3,85%<\/strong>, na reuni\u00e3o de pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria de fevereiro, marcando a primeira alta em mais de dois anos<\/strong>, em meio \u00e0 acelera\u00e7\u00e3o da infla\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A decis\u00e3o ser\u00e1 anunciada na ter\u00e7a-feira, \u00e0s 03:30 GMT<\/strong>, juntamente com a divulga\u00e7\u00e3o do Relat\u00f3rio de Pol\u00edtica Monet\u00e1ria (MPS)<\/strong> e das proje\u00e7\u00f5es econ\u00f4micas trimestrais atualizadas<\/strong>. Em seguida, a presidente do RBA, Michele Bullock<\/strong>, falar\u00e1 \u00e0 imprensa \u00e0s 04:30 GMT<\/strong>, oferecendo sinais importantes sobre o rumo futuro da pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Os mercados financeiros se preparam para forte volatilidade no d\u00f3lar australiano (AUD)<\/strong>, \u00e0 medida que os investidores avaliam se o banco central est\u00e1 se preparando para um ciclo mais amplo de aperto monet\u00e1rio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RBA deve contrariar a tend\u00eancia global de afrouxamento<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Se confirmada, a alta de juros em fevereiro colocar\u00e1 o RBA na contram\u00e3o do movimento global de flexibiliza\u00e7\u00e3o monet\u00e1ria, destacando o desafio inflacion\u00e1rio crescente enfrentado pela Austr\u00e1lia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A presidente Bullock deixou clara a postura do banco central. Ap\u00f3s a reuni\u00e3o de dezembro, ela enfatizou que o RBA agiria de forma decisiva caso a infla\u00e7\u00e3o n\u00e3o mostrasse sinais de desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o, afirmando que press\u00f5es persistentes sobre os pre\u00e7os seriam tratadas na reuni\u00e3o do conselho em fevereiro<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Os dados recentes de infla\u00e7\u00e3o refor\u00e7aram esse cen\u00e1rio. De acordo com o Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)<\/strong>, o \u00cdndice de Pre\u00e7os ao Consumidor (CPI) mensal<\/strong> subiu para 3,8% em dezembro<\/strong>, ante 3,4% em novembro<\/strong>, superando as expectativas do mercado de 3,6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A infla\u00e7\u00e3o subjacente tamb\u00e9m segue resistente. O CPI de m\u00e9dia aparada (trimmed mean)<\/strong>, medida preferida do RBA, avan\u00e7ou 0,9% no quarto trimestre<\/strong>, acima da proje\u00e7\u00e3o de 0,8%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mercados e bancos convergem para expectativa de alta de juros<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Ap\u00f3s os n\u00fameros de infla\u00e7\u00e3o mais fortes do que o esperado, os mercados monet\u00e1rios elevaram a probabilidade de uma alta de juros em fevereiro para 73%<\/strong>, ante cerca de 60% anteriormente, segundo a Reuters<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Os principais bancos da Austr\u00e1lia tamb\u00e9m revisaram suas proje\u00e7\u00f5es. ANZ, Westpac, Commonwealth Bank of Australia e NAB<\/strong> agora esperam que o RBA promova um aumento de 25 pontos-base<\/strong> neste m\u00eas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Os dados do mercado de trabalho refor\u00e7am ainda mais a postura hawkish. A taxa de desemprego caiu inesperadamente para 4,1% em dezembro<\/strong>, o n\u00edvel mais baixo desde maio, enquanto o emprego l\u00edquido avan\u00e7ou 65.200 vagas<\/strong>, revertendo a forte contra\u00e7\u00e3o registrada em novembro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O que a decis\u00e3o do RBA significa para o AUD\/USD<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

O par AUD\/USD<\/strong> enfrenta riscos em ambas as dire\u00e7\u00f5es antes do an\u00fancio do RBA, com a dire\u00e7\u00e3o dependendo principalmente do tom adotado por Bullock e das proje\u00e7\u00f5es econ\u00f4micas atualizadas do banco central.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Um discurso hawkish<\/strong>, indicando a possibilidade de novas altas de juros, pode reacender o movimento de alta do d\u00f3lar australiano. Por outro lado, se o RBA tratar a medida como um ajuste pontual e minimizar a chance de maior aperto monet\u00e1rio, a moeda pode voltar a sofrer press\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Atualmente, o AUD\/USD<\/strong> \u00e9 negociado abaixo do n\u00edvel psicol\u00f3gico de 0,7000<\/strong>, consolidando-se ap\u00f3s recuar de uma m\u00e1xima de tr\u00eas anos em 0,7094<\/strong>. Embora o \u00cdndice de For\u00e7a Relativa (RSI) de 14 dias<\/strong> tenha recuado a partir de n\u00edveis de sobrecompra, ele permanece pr\u00f3ximo de 60<\/strong>, indicando que o vi\u00e9s altista mais amplo ainda est\u00e1 preservado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Um resultado hawkish pode impulsionar o par de volta para 0,7050<\/strong>, com resist\u00eancias em 0,7094<\/strong> e 0,7158<\/strong>. No cen\u00e1rio de baixa, uma surpresa dovish pode abrir espa\u00e7o para quedas em dire\u00e7\u00e3o a 0,6900<\/strong>, seguida de 0,6850<\/strong>, enquanto 0,6800<\/strong> atua como um suporte-chave.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O Banco da Reserva da Austr\u00e1lia (RBA) \u00e9 amplamente esperado elevar a taxa b\u00e1sica de juros em 25 pontos-base, para […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":108517,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[794],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-108533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets-pt"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRBA sinaliza alta de juros em fevereiro com press\u00e3o inflacion\u00e1ria em acelera\u00e7\u00e3o - 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