{"id":104810,"date":"2025-11-25T08:18:15","date_gmt":"2025-11-25T08:18:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/?p=43953"},"modified":"2025-11-25T08:26:06","modified_gmt":"2025-11-25T08:26:06","slug":"eur-chf-e-o-risco-a-forca-do-franco-suico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/pt\/eur-chf-e-o-risco-a-forca-do-franco-suico\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/CHF e o Risco \u00e0 For\u00e7a do Franco Su\u00ed\u00e7o"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Durante o fim de semana, o presidente do SNB, Martin Schlegel<\/strong>, fez v\u00e1rias declara\u00e7\u00f5es que \u2014 como frequentemente acontece na comunica\u00e7\u00e3o dos bancos centrais \u2014 oferecem pistas sobre o futuro do franco su\u00ed\u00e7o. Schlegel afirmou que a Su\u00ed\u00e7a poder\u00e1 necessitar de uma pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria ainda mais acomodat\u00edcia. Isto \u00e9 not\u00e1vel, considerando que desde fevereiro de 2024 o SNB j\u00e1 reduziu as taxas de 1,75% para 0%<\/strong>, sendo o \u00fanico grande banco central das economias desenvolvidas a regressar a esse n\u00edvel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Apesar do que parece ser uma desvantagem em termos de pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria, o franco su\u00ed\u00e7o \u2014 que apresenta uma tend\u00eancia de aprecia\u00e7\u00e3o de v\u00e1rias d\u00e9cadas contra as principais moedas e especialmente contra o euro \u2014 n\u00e3o enfraqueceu. Pelo contr\u00e1rio, manteve-se est\u00e1vel dentro da faixa 0,92 a 0,945<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Um dos principais motivos est\u00e1 nas opera\u00e7\u00f5es de mercado aberto do SNB. Desde 2022, com o aumento da infla\u00e7\u00e3o global, o banco central vendeu grandes quantidades de reservas em moeda estrangeira para comprar francos. Isso fortaleceu o CHF e reduziu o impacto interno de pre\u00e7os de importa\u00e7\u00e3o mais elevados, ajudando a Su\u00ed\u00e7a a manter uma infla\u00e7\u00e3o significativamente inferior \u00e0 dos seus pares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Schlegel tamb\u00e9m mencionou que taxas negativas continuam a ser uma possibilidade<\/strong>. Ele destacou as grandes reservas de ouro do pa\u00eds \u2014 a s\u00e9tima maior do mundo \u2014 sugerindo que a Su\u00ed\u00e7a mant\u00e9m for\u00e7a no seu balan\u00e7o. A implica\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 clara: taxas negativas poderiam enfraquecer o CHF de forma consider\u00e1vel, e com as reservas cambiais agora mais baixas do que em anos anteriores, as reservas de ouro funcionariam como \u00e2ncora adicional para a moeda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Estrutura de M\u00e9dio Prazo e Contexto de Mercado<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A aprecia\u00e7\u00e3o do franco em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao euro atingiu o seu ponto m\u00e1ximo em agosto de 2024, quando o EUR\/CHF<\/strong> tocou 0,9211<\/strong>. Este n\u00edvel permaneceu como o piso do ciclo, sendo testado mais duas vezes desde ent\u00e3o e ultrapassado apenas uma vez \u2014 por uma \u00fanica sess\u00e3o, em 4 de novembro \u2014 quando o par negociou brevemente a 0,9180<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nos \u00faltimos quinze meses, o EUR\/CHF tem oscilado dentro de uma ampla faixa entre 0,9210 e 0,9450<\/strong>, com um breve avan\u00e7o at\u00e9 0,9630<\/strong> em mar\u00e7o deste ano. A potencial mudan\u00e7a na pol\u00edtica do SNB torna esta faixa ainda mais relevante, especialmente porque a linha de tend\u00eancia descendente de longo prazo<\/strong> est\u00e1 agora muito pr\u00f3xima dos n\u00edveis de mercado. Essa linha atualmente cruza perto de 0,9370<\/strong> e tem origem no m\u00e1ximo de mar\u00e7o de 2021, perto de 1,1150<\/strong>. Tem sido testada repetidamente e permanece um importante marcador estrutural.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Outro ponto relevante \u00e9 que as m\u00e9dias m\u00f3veis de longo prazo \u2014 a de 50 dias<\/strong> e a de 200 dias<\/strong> \u2014 est\u00e3o agora pr\u00f3ximas dos pre\u00e7os atuais, em 0,9296<\/strong> e 0,9366<\/strong>, respetivamente. Ambas est\u00e3o planas, sugerindo que a tend\u00eancia de queda de v\u00e1rios anos est\u00e1 a perder for\u00e7a. O RSI tamb\u00e9m virou para cima ap\u00f3s apresentar uma ligeira diverg\u00eancia altista.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perspetiva T\u00e9cnica e N\u00edveis-Chave<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Na nossa opini\u00e3o, o n\u00edvel de 0,9370<\/strong> \u00e9 cr\u00edtico numa perspetiva de m\u00e9dio a longo prazo. Uma quebra sustentada acima desse ponto durante v\u00e1rias sess\u00f5es indicaria que a tend\u00eancia baixista multianual no EUR\/CHF chegou ao fim. O fecho de ontem, em 0,9315<\/strong>, sugere que o par pode aproximar-se dessa \u00e1rea em breve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Se a rutura n\u00e3o ocorrer de imediato, o pre\u00e7o poder\u00e1 recuar em dire\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 m\u00e9dia m\u00f3vel de 50 dias e ao n\u00edvel psicol\u00f3gico de 0,93<\/strong>. Por outro lado, se a linha de tend\u00eancia for rompida e o pre\u00e7o se mantiver acima dela por v\u00e1rios dias, o mercado estaria a sinalizar uma mudan\u00e7a significativa na for\u00e7a subjacente do franco su\u00ed\u00e7o.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Durante o fim de semana, o presidente do SNB, Martin Schlegel, fez v\u00e1rias declara\u00e7\u00f5es que \u2014 como frequentemente acontece na […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":104013,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[798],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-104810","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEUR\/CHF e o Risco \u00e0 For\u00e7a do Franco Su\u00ed\u00e7o - 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