{"id":51455,"date":"2026-04-02T06:35:28","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T06:35:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/?p=51455"},"modified":"2026-04-02T08:47:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T08:47:14","slug":"correlaciones-de-mercado-petroleo-oro-y-tasas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/correlaciones-de-mercado-petroleo-oro-y-tasas\/","title":{"rendered":"Correlaciones de Mercado: Petr\u00f3leo, Oro y Tasas"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
En d\u00edas en los que el flujo de noticias mueve el mercado de manera abrupta y repentina\u2014y en los que es normal ver al oro caer un -4,03% mientras el petr\u00f3leo Brent del Reino Unido sube un +7,80% (como ha ocurrido esta ma\u00f1ana), tras las reacciones del mercado a un discurso, una declaraci\u00f3n o una noticia de agencia\u2014hoy queremos mostrar brevemente a qu\u00e9 nos referimos cuando hablamos de correlaciones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A menudo nos o\u00eds decir (aunque nunca con la suficiente frecuencia) que el mercado es un sistema interconectado, en el que el movimiento de un activo se corresponde con el movimiento\u2014en la misma direcci\u00f3n o en la contraria\u2014de otro. Seguir m\u00faltiples mercados puede, por tanto, ayudar a entender el panorama general como un todo \u00fanico y coherente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Por un lado, una discrepancia entre la reacci\u00f3n esperada de un activo en relaci\u00f3n con otro puede servir como se\u00f1al de advertencia de posibles cambios futuros. Por otro, un activo puede presentar niveles o se\u00f1ales de trading m\u00e1s claros que otro, ayudando a dar sentido incluso al gr\u00e1fico m\u00e1s confuso de los dos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dos relaciones clave:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n
El petr\u00f3leo mantiene una correlaci\u00f3n positiva con las tasas largas de EE. UU., ya que precios m\u00e1s altos impulsan expectativas de inflaci\u00f3n y, por tanto, mayores rendimientos.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
El oro presenta una correlaci\u00f3n inversa con las tasas reales. Aunque esta relaci\u00f3n se debilit\u00f3 desde 2022, recientemente ha vuelto a fortalecerse.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
En los gr\u00e1ficos a continuaci\u00f3n mostramos visualmente lo que esto significa, trazando la correlaci\u00f3n m\u00f3vil a 21 d\u00edas entre estas clases de activos. Es cierto que esta ventana temporal es algo corta y ruidosa, y que este tipo de c\u00e1lculos deber\u00eda realizarse idealmente sobre retornos y no sobre precios, pero por simplicidad y claridad visual hemos optado por estos par\u00e1metros.<\/p>\n\n\n\nCorrelacion entre Oro y Bono a 10 Y US<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
En el primer gr\u00e1fico se puede ver la correlaci\u00f3n entre el oro y el precio del Treasury estadounidense a 10 a\u00f1os: como se observa, este a\u00f1o ha aumentado con fuerza y ahora se sit\u00faa muy cerca del 75% (71,8%), lo que indica una gran similitud en la direcci\u00f3n de ambos instrumentos (teniendo en cuenta que el precio se mueve de forma inversa al rendimiento).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
En el segundo gr\u00e1fico se muestra la correlaci\u00f3n entre el Brent del Reino Unido y\u2014de nuevo\u2014el Treasury a 10 a\u00f1os, que en este caso se sit\u00faa en -60,5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\nCorrelacion entre Petroleo Brent in Bono 10Y US<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
En ambos casos, se trata de valores elevados que ponen de manifiesto la importancia de seguir de cerca estos tres instrumentos de forma simult\u00e1nea, especialmente en periodos como el actual.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
En d\u00edas en los que el flujo de noticias mueve el mercado de manera abrupta y repentina\u2014y en los que es normal ver al oro caer un -4,03% mientras el petr\u00f3leo Brent del Reino Unido sube un +7,80% (como ha ocurrido esta ma\u00f1ana), tras las reacciones del mercado a un discurso, una declaraci\u00f3n o una […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":43151,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[274],"tags":[715,760,515,466,545],"class_list":["post-51455","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-technical","tag-brent","tag-correlaciones","tag-oro","tag-petroleo","tag-xauusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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