{"id":51162,"date":"2026-03-27T07:13:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T07:13:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/?p=51162"},"modified":"2026-03-27T08:59:02","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T08:59:02","slug":"cacao-de-la-euforia-a-la-correccion-estructural","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/cacao-de-la-euforia-a-la-correccion-estructural\/","title":{"rendered":"Cacao: De la Euforia a la Correcci\u00f3n Estructural"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Lo ocurrido en el mercado del cacao entre inicios de 2024 y diciembre de ese a\u00f1o fue uno de los rallies m\u00e1s extremos en la historia reciente de materias primas, impulsado por un shock de oferta. El m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico de $12,931 por tonelada super\u00f3 ampliamente el r\u00e9cord previo de 1977 ($5,104), vigente por 47 a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El detonante fue un d\u00e9ficit global sin precedentes en m\u00e1s de 60 a\u00f1os durante la campa\u00f1a 2023\/2024, provocado por severas p\u00e9rdidas de cosechas en Costa de Marfil y Ghana, que concentran m\u00e1s del 70% de la producci\u00f3n mundial. Sin embargo, hacia finales de 2024, el propio mercado comenz\u00f3 a corregirse: los altos precios incentivaron la recuperaci\u00f3n de la oferta y destruyeron demanda, con fabricantes ajustando f\u00f3rmulas y consumidores reduciendo consumo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El resultado fue una correcci\u00f3n abrupta. Desde el m\u00e1ximo, los futuros cayeron hasta $2,822 el 6 de marzo, un desplome cercano al 78%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
La ca\u00edda responde a un ajuste simult\u00e1neo de oferta y demanda. La producci\u00f3n aument\u00f3 a 4,7 millones de toneladas (+8,4% interanual), mientras que la demanda se debilit\u00f3, reflejada en menores niveles de molienda. Esto deriv\u00f3 en acumulaci\u00f3n de inventarios en pa\u00edses productores, con dificultades para colocar el excedente. La ICCO estima ahora un super\u00e1vit global de 75,000 toneladas para 2024\/25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Para los traders, el cacao sigue siendo un mercado de alta volatilidad. Las posiciones largas deben manejarse con cautela, monitoreando especialmente las condiciones clim\u00e1ticas en \u00c1frica Occidental, ya que cualquier disrupci\u00f3n podr\u00eda reactivar movimientos bruscos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
La tendencia de largo plazo muestra una estructura clara dentro de un canal definido, con siete ondas identificables: cuatro bajistas y tres alcistas de menor extensi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\nCACAO, Diario, 2025 – Presente<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Tres elementos t\u00e9cnicos destacan:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El precio ha testeado el l\u00edmite inferior del canal, lo que hist\u00f3ricamente precede consolidaci\u00f3n o rebotes moderados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
La ruptura de la directriz bajista iniciada en enero sugiere una pausa en la presi\u00f3n vendedora.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Los indicadores comienzan a mostrar se\u00f1ales tempranas de recuperaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El nivel clave sigue siendo el m\u00ednimo reciente en $2,822, que act\u00faa como referencia estructural y permite estrategias con stops ajustados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Al alza, los objetivos se sit\u00faan en $3,500 y $4,095. Una ruptura de este \u00faltimo nivel abrir\u00eda el camino hacia $4,975, aunque implicar\u00eda un cambio m\u00e1s amplio en la estructura de mercado.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Lo ocurrido en el mercado del cacao entre inicios de 2024 y diciembre de ese a\u00f1o fue uno de los rallies m\u00e1s extremos en la historia reciente de materias primas, impulsado por un shock de oferta. El m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico de $12,931 por tonelada super\u00f3 ampliamente el r\u00e9cord previo de 1977 ($5,104), vigente por 47 a\u00f1os. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":43151,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[274],"tags":[666,668,670,717],"class_list":["post-51162","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-technical","tag-cacao","tag-commodities","tag-futures","tag-materias-primas"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
Cacao: De la Euforia a la Correcci\u00f3n Estructural - OnEquity<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Cacao: De la Euforia a la Correcci\u00f3n Estructural - OnEquity\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Lo ocurrido en el mercado del cacao entre inicios de 2024 y diciembre de ese a\u00f1o fue uno de los rallies m\u00e1s extremos en la historia reciente de materias primas, impulsado por un shock de oferta. El m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico de $12,931 por tonelada super\u00f3 ampliamente el r\u00e9cord previo de 1977 ($5,104), vigente por 47 a\u00f1os. 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