{"id":46339,"date":"2025-12-09T08:13:34","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T08:13:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/?p=44302"},"modified":"2026-01-15T07:11:31","modified_gmt":"2026-01-15T07:11:31","slug":"el-rba-mantiene-los-tipos-en-36-y-el-aud-sigue-avanzando","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/el-rba-mantiene-los-tipos-en-36-y-el-aud-sigue-avanzando\/","title":{"rendered":"El RBA Mantiene los Tipos en 3,6% y el AUD Sigue Avanzando"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Esta ma\u00f1ana, el Banco de la Reserva de Australia (RBA) mantuvo su tipo de referencia en 3,6% por cuarta reuni\u00f3n consecutiva, con el AUD\/USD destac\u00e1ndose como el mejor desempe\u00f1o entre los principales pares de divisas. El RBA es el primero de los cuatro grandes bancos centrales que se re\u00fanen esta semana, todos enfrentando el mismo desaf\u00edo: equilibrar una inflaci\u00f3n que contin\u00faa por encima del objetivo con una econom\u00eda que a\u00fan avanza a un ritmo razonablemente s\u00f3lido, aunque con un riesgo claro de desacelerarse en los pr\u00f3ximos meses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los datos macroecon\u00f3micos de Australia muestran un crecimiento del PIB del 2,1% y una tasa de desempleo baja, del 4,3%, aunque el mercado laboral se ha estabilizado en niveles superiores a los de principios de a\u00f1o (2025 comenz\u00f3 en 3,9%). La actividad econ\u00f3mica est\u00e1 siendo impulsada por el consumo de los hogares y la inversi\u00f3n privada; sin embargo, el aumento de los precios est\u00e1 erosionando el poder adquisitivo, lo que se refleja en un crecimiento del PIB per c\u00e1pita moderado. De manera algo sorprendente \u2014al menos para quien escribe\u2014, las exportaciones han mostrado una volatilidad significativa. A pesar de ser un gran exportador de mineral de hierro, carb\u00f3n y materias primas en general (incluido el oro), la balanza comercial ha registrado una tendencia descendente desde mediados de 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El RBA inici\u00f3 un ciclo de flexibilizaci\u00f3n en noviembre de 2023 y, como se ha se\u00f1alado, lo interrumpi\u00f3 recientemente, en agosto de este a\u00f1o. Todo indica que los inversores ya hab\u00edan anticipado este cambio varios meses antes, dado que el AUD\/USD no ha retrocedido desde abril de 2025 y, por el contrario, registr\u00f3 un repunte s\u00f3lido antes de estabilizarse en los niveles actuales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An\u00e1lisis T\u00e9cnico<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

El AUD\/USD comenz\u00f3 el a\u00f1o en torno a 0,62 y, desde entonces, ha subido de manera lenta pero constante \u2014dejando aparte la volatilidad asociada a los aranceles en abril\u2014 hasta situarse en el nivel actual cercano a 0,6638. De hecho, durante la segunda mitad del a\u00f1o el par ha operado mayormente de forma lateral dentro de un rango entre 0,6460 y niveles muy pr\u00f3ximos al actual 0,6620. Solo a finales de septiembre lleg\u00f3 brevemente a 0,6703, nivel que parece ser ahora el siguiente objetivo direccional. El par acumula 13 sesiones consecutivas al alza, lo que ha llevado, como era de esperar, a que los principales indicadores t\u00e9cnicos (RSI, MACD) adopten configuraciones claramente constructivas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
AUDUSD Semanal, Dec 2019 – Presente<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Adem\u00e1s, el gr\u00e1fico de largo plazo resulta especialmente relevante: la acci\u00f3n del precio est\u00e1 poniendo a prueba la l\u00ednea de tendencia bajista de largo recorrido originada en 2021. Para los inversores de medio y largo plazo, puede ser prudente esperar a ver c\u00f3mo reacciona el mercado ante este nivel estructural. Una ruptura al alza abrir\u00eda objetivos iniciales en 0,6710, seguidos de 0,6760 y, finalmente, 0,6795. Un movimiento de sobreextensi\u00f3n hacia 0,6870 podr\u00eda darse si el sentimiento del mercado se tornara m\u00e1s optimista.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
AUDUSD Diario, Sep 2023 – Presente<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A la baja, los niveles de soporte a vigilar son 0,6585 y \u2014de manera m\u00e1s relevante\u2014 0,6480 y 0,63630. No obstante, estos escenarios bajistas no constituyen nuestro caso base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Esta ma\u00f1ana, el Banco de la Reserva de Australia (RBA) mantuvo su tipo de referencia en 3,6% por cuarta reuni\u00f3n consecutiva, con el AUD\/USD destac\u00e1ndose como el mejor desempe\u00f1o entre los principales pares de divisas. El RBA es el primero de los cuatro grandes bancos centrales que se re\u00fanen esta semana, todos enfrentando el mismo […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":43151,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[274],"tags":[534,454,533],"class_list":["post-46339","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-technical","tag-audusd","tag-fx","tag-rba"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEl RBA Mantiene los Tipos en 3,6% y el AUD Sigue Avanzando - OnEquity<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El RBA Mantiene los Tipos en 3,6% y el AUD Sigue Avanzando - OnEquity\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Esta ma\u00f1ana, el Banco de la Reserva de Australia (RBA) mantuvo su tipo de referencia en 3,6% por cuarta reuni\u00f3n consecutiva, con el AUD\/USD destac\u00e1ndose como el mejor desempe\u00f1o entre los principales pares de divisas. 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