{"id":43950,"date":"2025-11-25T08:18:15","date_gmt":"2025-11-25T08:18:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/?p=43950"},"modified":"2025-11-25T08:31:40","modified_gmt":"2025-11-25T08:31:40","slug":"eur-chf-y-la-fortaleza-del-franco-en-punto-critico","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/eur-chf-y-la-fortaleza-del-franco-en-punto-critico\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/CHF y la fortaleza del franco en punto cr\u00edtico"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Durante el fin de semana, el presidente del Banco Nacional Suizo (BNS), Martin Schlegel, realiz\u00f3 una serie de declaraciones interesantes que, como suele ocurrir con los banqueros centrales, ofrecen indicaciones \u00fatiles sobre el posible rumbo futuro de la moneda nacional, el franco suizo (CHF). En concreto, Schlegel afirm\u00f3 que Suiza podr\u00eda necesitar una pol\u00edtica monetaria a\u00fan m\u00e1s acomodaticia. Esto resulta especialmente relevante si se considera que, desde febrero de 2024, el BNS ha recortado los tipos desde el 1,75% hasta el 0% actual, siendo el \u00fanico banco central de los mercados desarrollados que ha vuelto a este nivel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A pesar de este claro punto de desventaja, el CHF \u2014que lleva d\u00e9cadas apreci\u00e1ndose frente a las principales divisas, y especialmente frente al euro\u2014 no ha experimentado ning\u00fan tipo de depreciaci\u00f3n. M\u00e1s bien, se ha estabilizado en el rango de 0,92\u20130,945. Volveremos sobre este punto m\u00e1s adelante.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00bfPor qu\u00e9 ha ocurrido esto? Desde 2022, el BNS ha estado fuertemente involucrado en operaciones de mercado abierto. Cuando la inflaci\u00f3n comenz\u00f3 a repuntar a nivel global, el banco central vendi\u00f3 grandes cantidades de reservas de divisas para comprar francos suizos y fortalecer la moneda. Con un CHF m\u00e1s fuerte, el impacto de las importaciones sobre los precios internos disminuy\u00f3, contribuyendo as\u00ed a contener la inflaci\u00f3n en el pa\u00eds alpino.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Este fin de semana, Schlegel incluso mencion\u00f3 la posibilidad de tipos negativos y, al hacerlo, record\u00f3 que las reservas de oro de Suiza \u2014las s\u00e9ptimas mayores del mundo\u2014 siguen siendo muy significativas. La raz\u00f3n es evidente: unos tipos negativos ejercer\u00edan una presi\u00f3n bajista considerable sobre el CHF, mientras que las reservas de divisas se han reducido sensiblemente en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os. No obstante, el banquero central dio a entender que el pa\u00eds a\u00fan dispone de una s\u00f3lida base en oro que respalda la fortaleza del franco.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An\u00e1lisis t\u00e9cnico<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Como se mencion\u00f3 anteriormente, la apreciaci\u00f3n del CHF frente al EUR alcanz\u00f3 su m\u00e1ximo en agosto de 2024, cuando el EUR\/CHF cay\u00f3 a 0,9211. Desde entonces, este ha sido el m\u00ednimo del ciclo, probado en otras dos ocasiones y vulnerado \u00fanicamente durante una sesi\u00f3n, el pasado 4 de noviembre (m\u00ednimo en 0,9180).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A lo largo de estos 15 meses, el par ha oscilado entre este soporte y aproximadamente 0,945, con una breve incursi\u00f3n hacia 0,9630 en marzo de este a\u00f1o. Ahora, con la perspectiva de tipos negativos, este escenario podr\u00eda cambiar, sobre todo considerando que \u2014t\u00e9cnicamente\u2014 la directriz bajista de largo plazo pasa muy cerca del nivel actual, situ\u00e1ndose hoy en torno a 0,9370. Originada en marzo de 2021 cerca de 1,1150, ha sido testada en m\u00faltiples ocasiones y posee por tanto una relevancia considerable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Otro aspecto notable es que las medias m\u00f3viles de largo plazo \u2014tanto la de 50 d\u00edas como la de 200 d\u00edas\u2014 tambi\u00e9n se encuentran muy cerca, en 0,9296 y 0,9366 respectivamente, y llevan tiempo aplan\u00e1ndose. El RSI est\u00e1 repuntando tras mostrar brevemente una divergencia alcista.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A la luz de estos factores, consideramos el nivel de 0,9370 como crucial<\/strong> en el medio y largo plazo. Una ruptura sostenida por encima de dicho nivel durante varios d\u00edas se\u00f1alar\u00eda el final del sesgo bajista de largo recorrido en el EUR\/CHF. El cierre de ayer fue 0,9315, y creemos que el par intentar\u00e1 poner a prueba ese nivel en las pr\u00f3ximas horas o d\u00edas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si la ruptura no se materializa de inmediato, podr\u00eda producirse un nuevo movimiento hacia la media m\u00f3vil de 50 d\u00edas y el nivel psicol\u00f3gico de 0,93. Por el contrario, si la directriz es superada y el precio se mantiene por encima durante varios d\u00edas, esto indicar\u00eda que algo est\u00e1 cambiando en relaci\u00f3n con la fortaleza del CHF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Durante el fin de semana, el presidente del Banco Nacional Suizo (BNS), Martin Schlegel, realiz\u00f3 una serie de declaraciones interesantes que, como suele ocurrir con los banqueros centrales, ofrecen indicaciones \u00fatiles sobre el posible rumbo futuro de la moneda nacional, el franco suizo (CHF). En concreto, Schlegel afirm\u00f3 que Suiza podr\u00eda necesitar una pol\u00edtica monetaria […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":43151,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[274],"tags":[285,289],"class_list":["post-43950","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-technical","tag-analysis-es","tag-currencies-es"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEUR\/CHF y la fortaleza del franco en punto cr\u00edtico - OnEquity<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EUR\/CHF y la fortaleza del franco en punto cr\u00edtico - OnEquity\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Durante el fin de semana, el presidente del Banco Nacional Suizo (BNS), Martin Schlegel, realiz\u00f3 una serie de declaraciones interesantes que, como suele ocurrir con los banqueros centrales, ofrecen indicaciones \u00fatiles sobre el posible rumbo futuro de la moneda nacional, el franco suizo (CHF). 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