{"id":39077,"date":"2025-08-13T11:06:10","date_gmt":"2025-08-13T11:06:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/dollar-falls-expectations-grow-for-a-fed-rate-cut-in-september\/"},"modified":"2025-08-22T12:02:39","modified_gmt":"2025-08-22T12:02:39","slug":"dollar-falls-expectations-grow-for-a-fed-rate-cut-in-september","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/dollar-falls-expectations-grow-for-a-fed-rate-cut-in-september\/","title":{"rendered":"El d\u00f3lar cae ante las crecientes expectativas de una bajada de tipos por parte de la Fed en septiembre"},"content":{"rendered":"\n


El d\u00f3lar estadounidense prolong\u00f3 su ca\u00edda el mi\u00e9rcoles despu\u00e9s de que los moderados datos sobre la inflaci\u00f3n reforzaran las expectativas de una bajada de tipos por parte de la Reserva Federal el pr\u00f3ximo mes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A las 04:25 ET (08:25 GMT), el\u00a0\u00edndice del d\u00f3lar<\/a>, que mide la evoluci\u00f3n del d\u00f3lar frente a una cesta de seis\u00a0divisas<\/a> principales, baj\u00f3 un 0,4 % hasta situarse en 97,540, tras caer un 0,5 % en la sesi\u00f3n anterior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00bfRecorte de tipos de la Fed en septiembre?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Los precios al consumidor en EE. UU. registraron solo un modesto aumento en julio, seg\u00fan datos publicados el martes, lo que aumenta la probabilidad de un recorte de tipos en septiembre, ya que los aranceles de la administraci\u00f3n Trump han tenido hasta ahora un impacto inflacionario limitado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los mercados descuentan ahora un 98 % de probabilidades de que la Fed recorte los tipos el mes que viene, lo que lastra fuertemente al d\u00f3lar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abEn este momento, el d\u00f3lar tiene pocos argumentos alcistas a los que aferrarse. Las pr\u00f3ximas encuestas podr\u00edan mostrar una mejora de la actividad, pero la atenci\u00f3n se centra claramente en el mercado laboral. Solo parece realista un repunte significativo del d\u00f3lar si los datos de empleo se muestran mucho m\u00e1s s\u00f3lidos\u00bb, se\u00f1alaron los analistas de ING.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La agenda de la sesi\u00f3n es ligera, con publicaciones clave a finales de la semana: los precios al productor el jueves, seguidos de las ventas minoristas y la confianza del consumidor el viernes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abLa proximidad de la cumbre entre Trump y Rusia el viernes y la reciente reevaluaci\u00f3n de las perspectivas de alto el fuego significan que el d\u00f3lar podr\u00eda no bajar mucho m\u00e1s por ahora\u00bb, a\u00f1adi\u00f3 ING.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El euro cotiza al alza<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

En Europa, el EUR\/USD avanz\u00f3 un 0,3 % hasta 1,1712, ampliando la subida del 0,5 % del martes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La tasa de inflaci\u00f3n anual armonizada de la UE en Espa\u00f1a subi\u00f3 al 2,7 % en julio desde el 2,3 % de junio, mientras que la de Alemania se confirm\u00f3 en el 1,8 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abLa configuraci\u00f3n alcista del EUR\/USD se reforz\u00f3 tras el informe sobre la inflaci\u00f3n en EE. UU., pero una ruptura decisiva podr\u00eda retrasarse hasta despu\u00e9s de la reuni\u00f3n entre Trump y Putin el viernes\u00bb, coment\u00f3 ING.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El GBP\/USD subi\u00f3 un 0,4 % hasta 1,3560 despu\u00e9s de que los datos mostraran que el crecimiento de los salarios en el Reino Unido se mantuvo s\u00f3lido, lo que reforz\u00f3 el enfoque cauteloso del Banco de Inglaterra respecto a los recortes de tipos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El yen gana terreno tras la publicaci\u00f3n del IPP<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

El USD\/CNY se mantuvo estable en 7,1763 tras las p\u00e9rdidas registradas a principios de semana, tras la pr\u00f3rroga de 90 d\u00edas del acuerdo comercial temporal entre Estados Unidos y China. Las autoridades estadounidenses se\u00f1alaron que las conversaciones con Pek\u00edn se reanudar\u00e1n en los pr\u00f3ximos meses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El USD\/JPY cay\u00f3 un 0,2 % hasta 147,46, con el yen respaldado por unas cifras del IPP mejores de lo esperado, que podr\u00edan empujar al Banco de Jap\u00f3n hacia nuevas subidas de tipos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El AUD\/USD subi\u00f3 un 0,4 % hasta 0,6551, con el d\u00f3lar australiano avanzando a pesar de la tercera bajada de tipos del a\u00f1o por parte del Banco de la Reserva de Australia el martes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. dollar extended its decline on Wednesday after subdued inflation data reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At 04:25 ET (08:25 GMT), the Dollar Index<\/a> \u2014 which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies<\/a> \u2014 slipped 0.4% to 97.540, following a 0.5% drop in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed Rate Cut in September?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

U.S. consumer prices posted only a modest gain in July, Tuesday\u2019s data showed, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in September as tariffs from the Trump administration have so far had limited inflationary impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets are now pricing in a 98% probability of a Fed rate reduction next month, weighing heavily on the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAt this stage, the dollar has few bullish arguments to hold onto. Upcoming surveys might show improved activity, but the focus is squarely on the jobs market. A meaningful rebound in the dollar seems realistic only if labor data turns significantly stronger,\u201d analysts at ING noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The session\u2019s calendar is light, with key releases coming later in the week \u2014 producer prices on Thursday, followed by retail sales and consumer sentiment on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe proximity to the Trump\u2013Russia summit on Friday and the recent reassessment of ceasefire prospects mean the dollar may not decline much further for now,\u201d ING added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Euro Trades Higher<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In Europe, EUR\/USD advanced 0.3% to 1.1712, extending Tuesday\u2019s 0.5% gain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spain\u2019s EU-harmonized annual inflation rate rose to 2.7% in July from 2.3% in June, while Germany\u2019s was confirmed at 1.8%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEUR\/USD\u2019s bullish setup strengthened after the U.S. inflation report, but a decisive breakout may be delayed until after the Trump\u2013Putin meeting on Friday,\u201d ING commented.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GBP\/USD climbed 0.4% to 1.3560 after data showed U.K. wage growth remained robust, reinforcing the Bank of England\u2019s cautious approach to rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yen Gains After PPI Release<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

USD\/CNY was steady at 7.1763 after earlier losses this week, following a 90-day extension of the U.S.\u2013China temporary trade deal. U.S. officials signaled that talks with Beijing will resume in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USD\/JPY fell 0.2% to 147.46, with the yen supported by stronger-than-expected PPI figures that could push the Bank of Japan toward further rate hikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AUD\/USD rose 0.4% to 0.6551, with the Australian dollar advancing despite the Reserve Bank of Australia\u2019s third rate cut of the year on Tuesday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El d\u00f3lar estadounidense prolong\u00f3 su ca\u00edda el mi\u00e9rcoles despu\u00e9s de que los moderados datos sobre la inflaci\u00f3n reforzaran las expectativas de una bajada de tipos por parte de la Reserva Federal el pr\u00f3ximo mes. 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