{"id":122394,"date":"2026-09-03T08:14:51","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T06:14:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=122394"},"modified":"2026-09-03T08:19:46","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T06:19:46","slug":"dolar-cae-antes-del-nfp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/dolar-cae-antes-del-nfp\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00f3lar Cae Antes del NFP"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El \u00edndice del d\u00f3lar estadounidense (DXY) se debilit\u00f3 hasta alrededor de 99,39 durante las primeras operaciones europeas del jueves 3 de septiembre, mientras los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro de EE. UU. retroced\u00edan desde m\u00e1ximos recientes de varios a\u00f1os. El d\u00f3lar se vio presionado despu\u00e9s de que nuevos datos mostraran una desaceleraci\u00f3n de la contrataci\u00f3n en el sector privado durante agosto, aumentando la atenci\u00f3n del mercado sobre el informe oficial de empleo de EE. UU. previsto para el viernes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El informe de empleo nacional de ADP mostr\u00f3 que los empleadores privados de EE. UU. a\u00f1adieron 38.000 puestos de trabajo en agosto, frente a los 46.000 de julio, cifra revisada a la baja, y por debajo de las expectativas del mercado de aproximadamente 47.000\u201348.000. Fue el ritmo m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil de creaci\u00f3n de empleo en el sector privado desde enero. Los servicios de educaci\u00f3n y salud lideraron las contrataciones con 45.000 nuevos puestos, mientras que el sector manufacturero perdi\u00f3 17.000 empleos y los servicios profesionales y empresariales redujeron 16.000 puestos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El menor ritmo de contrataci\u00f3n ha aumentado las preocupaciones sobre una posible p\u00e9rdida de impulso del mercado laboral estadounidense. Al mismo tiempo, los mercados siguen atentos a la pol\u00edtica de la Reserva Federal, ya que la inflaci\u00f3n permanece por encima del objetivo del 2% del banco central. El presidente de la Fed, Kevin Warsh, se\u00f1al\u00f3 en Jackson Hole que la estabilidad de precios contin\u00faa siendo un objetivo firme del 2% y destac\u00f3 que los responsables de pol\u00edtica monetaria deben centrarse en las tendencias subyacentes de la inflaci\u00f3n, al tiempo que reconocen que el mercado laboral sigue siendo, en t\u00e9rminos generales, estable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
La atenci\u00f3n se centra ahora en el informe de empleo de EE. UU. correspondiente a agosto, que se publicar\u00e1 el viernes 4 de septiembre a las 8:30 a. m. ET. Las previsiones actuales apuntan a un aumento moderado de alrededor de 53.000 n\u00f3minas no agr\u00edcolas, mientras que se espera que la tasa de desempleo se mantenga en el 4,1%. El informe oficial ofrecer\u00e1 una visi\u00f3n m\u00e1s amplia del mercado laboral que la encuesta de empleo privado de ADP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Seg\u00fan el gr\u00e1fico diario del DXY, el \u00edndice cotiza alrededor de 99,39, justo por encima del retroceso de Fibonacci del 61,8% en 99,22. Este nivel representa el primer soporte importante despu\u00e9s del reciente rebote desde la zona de 98,52, que coincide con el retroceso de Fibonacci del 78,6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hasta ahora, la recuperaci\u00f3n no ha logrado superar la zona de 99,70\u201399,71, marcada por el retroceso de Fibonacci del 50%. Un cierre diario por encima de esta resistencia reforzar\u00eda la recuperaci\u00f3n alcista y podr\u00eda abrir el camino hacia 100,20, seguido de 100,82. Por encima de estos niveles, la zona psicol\u00f3gica de 101,00 y el m\u00e1ximo anterior cercano a 101,80 ser\u00edan los siguientes objetivos potenciales al alza.<\/p>\n\n\n\nGr\u00e1fico del DXY<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
El impulso sigue siendo mixto. El RSI se sit\u00faa en 45,23, por debajo del nivel neutral de 50, lo que indica que los compradores todav\u00eda no han tomado el control. Sin embargo, el indicador se ha recuperado desde niveles m\u00e1s bajos. El MACD tambi\u00e9n presenta una estructura m\u00e1s constructiva, con la l\u00ednea MACD alrededor de -0,215, por encima de la l\u00ednea de se\u00f1al cercana a -0,299, mientras que el histograma ha pasado a terreno positivo. Esto apunta a una mejora del impulso a corto plazo, aunque una ruptura de 99,70\u201399,71 ofrecer\u00eda una confirmaci\u00f3n alcista m\u00e1s s\u00f3lida.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A la baja, 99,22 es el soporte inicial clave. Una ruptura decisiva por debajo de este nivel aumentar\u00eda el riesgo de una ca\u00edda hacia 99,05, seguida de 98,52. La p\u00e9rdida de 98,52 debilitar\u00eda la estructura del reciente rebote y dejar\u00eda expuesta la zona de 97,63 como siguiente nivel importante de soporte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Para los traders, la combinaci\u00f3n de una desaceleraci\u00f3n del empleo privado, menores rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro y un contexto todav\u00eda restrictivo por parte de la Fed genera un escenario potencialmente vol\u00e1til para el DXY. El informe NFP del viernes es especialmente importante, ya que un dato del mercado laboral m\u00e1s fuerte o m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil de lo esperado podr\u00eda modificar r\u00e1pidamente las expectativas sobre la decisi\u00f3n de la Fed en septiembre, pergerakan de los rendimientos del Tesoro y la direcci\u00f3n del d\u00f3lar estadounidense. Desde el punto de vista t\u00e9cnico, 99,22 y 99,70\u201399,71 son los niveles clave que los traders deben vigilar para determinar el pr\u00f3ximo movimiento direccional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El \u00edndice del d\u00f3lar estadounidense (DXY) se debilit\u00f3 hasta alrededor de 99,39 durante las primeras operaciones europeas del jueves 3 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":113481,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[863],"tags":[4595,4640,3840,5168,4380,5536,3950],"class_list":["post-122394","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-technical","tag-analisis-tecnico","tag-dolar-estadounidense","tag-dxy-es","tag-indice-del-dolar","tag-onequity-insights","tag-prevision-del-usd","tag-usd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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