{"id":121410,"date":"2026-07-16T09:23:44","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T07:23:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=121410"},"modified":"2026-07-16T09:28:47","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T07:28:47","slug":"eurusd-cae-por-la-fed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/eurusd-cae-por-la-fed\/","title":{"rendered":"EURUSD Cae por la Fed"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
La atenci\u00f3n de los mercados se centr\u00f3 esta semana en los datos de inflaci\u00f3n de Estados Unidos, mientras los inversores buscaban nuevas se\u00f1ales sobre la pol\u00edtica de la Reserva Federal y la direcci\u00f3n del d\u00f3lar estadounidense. La primera reuni\u00f3n de Kevin Warsh como presidente de la Reserva Federal se esperaba inicialmente como el inicio de un ciclo de recortes de tasas impulsado por un aliado de Donald Trump. Sin embargo, el resultado fue una sorpresa de tono claramente restrictivo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
La reuni\u00f3n del FOMC de junio redujo de forma significativa la orientaci\u00f3n futura, dej\u00f3 el gr\u00e1fico de puntos (dot plot) dividido 9 a 9 entre quienes favorecen nuevas subidas de tasas y quienes no, y elev\u00f3 la proyecci\u00f3n mediana de la tasa para 2026 del 3,4% al 3,8%. Adem\u00e1s, Warsh opt\u00f3 por no presentar su propia proyecci\u00f3n de tasas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
La sorpresa provoc\u00f3 una fuerte ca\u00edda del EURUSD, llevando al par por debajo del rango de negociaci\u00f3n de un a\u00f1o entre 1,15 y 1,1825 y hasta su nivel m\u00e1s bajo desde mayo de 2025, en 1,1325. El giro restrictivo fortaleci\u00f3 al d\u00f3lar estadounidense al reducir el atractivo relativo del euro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Durante su comparecencia ante el Congreso esta semana, Warsh reforz\u00f3 ese mensaje al afirmar que \u00abtodav\u00eda queda mucho trabajo por hacer\u00bb, rechazando cualquier sugerencia de que la lucha contra la inflaci\u00f3n hubiera terminado. Como resultado, el EURUSD permaneci\u00f3 cerca de m\u00ednimos de varios meses, alrededor de 1,14, mientras los mercados esperaban se\u00f1ales de un cambio de pol\u00edtica que finalmente no lleg\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El sentimiento del mercado cambi\u00f3 bruscamente tras una serie de informes de inflaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s d\u00e9biles de lo esperado. El martes, el \u00cdndice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) cay\u00f3 un 0,4% mensual, registrando la primera disminuci\u00f3n de la inflaci\u00f3n desde 2020. El dato sorprendi\u00f3 ampliamente a la baja y redujo la probabilidad de una subida de tasas en julio del 42% a menos del 17%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El rendimiento del bono del Tesoro estadounidense a dos a\u00f1os cay\u00f3 hasta 14 puntos b\u00e1sicos, registrando su mayor descenso diario en varios meses, ya que los operadores deshicieron las posiciones restrictivas acumuladas tras la reuni\u00f3n del FOMC de junio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El mi\u00e9rcoles, el \u00cdndice de Precios al Productor (IPP) reforz\u00f3 la narrativa de una inflaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s moderada. Los precios al productor descendieron un 0,3%, frente a las expectativas de que permanecieran sin cambios, mientras que el IPP subyacente tambi\u00e9n qued\u00f3 por debajo de las previsiones. La consiguiente ca\u00edda de los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro a corto plazo impuls\u00f3 un renovado inter\u00e9s comprador en el EURUSD, ya que los mercados redujeron parcialmente sus expectativas de un mayor endurecimiento monetario por parte de la Fed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A pesar de los datos de inflaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s d\u00e9biles, las expectativas de otra subida de tasas no han desaparecido.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Los mercados siguen asignando una probabilidad del 50% al 60% a un incremento de tasas en septiembre, lo que sugiere que los inversores todav\u00eda esperan que la Reserva Federal mantenga una postura restrictiva. Con un FOMC dividido por igual y Warsh neg\u00e1ndose a descartar nuevos aumentos, el pr\u00f3ximo gran movimiento del EURUSD depender\u00e1 de si los recientes datos de inflaci\u00f3n marcan el inicio de una tendencia sostenida de desinflaci\u00f3n o representan solo una pausa temporal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Aunque el EURUSD ha cotizado principalmente dentro del rango de 1,15 a 1,1825 durante el \u00faltimo a\u00f1o, se han producido varios movimientos destacados fuera de esos niveles. A la baja, el nivel psicol\u00f3gico de 1,14 ha actuado como una zona clave de soporte, sirviendo como \u00faltima l\u00ednea de defensa tanto en agosto de 2025 como en marzo de 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\nGr\u00e1fico diario del EURUSD, de noviembre de 2024 hasta la actualidad.<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Si bien el EURUSD ha cotizado brevemente por debajo de 1,14 durante varias sesiones recientes, la zona de soporte principal contin\u00faa manteni\u00e9ndose, con el par negoci\u00e1ndose actualmente en torno a 1,1468.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Los indicadores t\u00e9cnicos han mostrado una recuperaci\u00f3n moderada. Sin embargo, el nivel de 1,15 se ha convertido ahora en una resistencia importante, reforzada por la clara l\u00ednea de tendencia bajista que ha guiado la acci\u00f3n del precio durante todo 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Adem\u00e1s, la tendencia alcista de largo plazo iniciada en diciembre de 2024 parece haberse roto en marzo. Aunque esto no implica necesariamente un cambio completo de tendencia, s\u00ed sugiere que el EURUSD ha entrado en un nuevo r\u00e9gimen de mercado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
En conjunto, mantenemos una perspectiva cautelosa sobre el EURUSD. Si los precios de la energ\u00eda reanudan una tendencia alcista sostenida, creemos que a\u00fan existe margen, aunque probablemente limitado, para una mayor apreciaci\u00f3n del d\u00f3lar estadounidense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nuestro principal objetivo bajista sigue siendo 1,1200, con un soporte intermedio en torno a 1,1290 y la posibilidad de una extensi\u00f3n hacia 1,1065.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
La atenci\u00f3n de los mercados se centr\u00f3 esta semana en los datos de inflaci\u00f3n de Estados Unidos, mientras los inversores […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113481,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[863],"tags":[5309,4640,4022,5308,4380,4631],"class_list":["post-121410","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-technical","tag-analisis-forex","tag-dolar-estadounidense","tag-eurusd","tag-inflacion-de-ee-uu","tag-onequity-insights","tag-reserva-federal"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
EURUSD Cae por la Fed - OnEquity<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/eurusd-cae-por-la-fed\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EURUSD Cae por la Fed - OnEquity\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"La atenci\u00f3n de los mercados se centr\u00f3 esta semana en los datos de inflaci\u00f3n de Estados Unidos, mientras los inversores […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/eurusd-cae-por-la-fed\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"OnEquity\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-07-16T07:23:44+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-07-16T07:28:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Technical-Analysis-ES.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"850\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"550\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Marco Turatti\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Marco Turatti\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tiempo de lectura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/es\\\/eurusd-cae-por-la-fed\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/es\\\/eurusd-cae-por-la-fed\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Marco Turatti\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/es\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d3e52a0ffb9417ae1b81d44a04de3be9\"},\"headline\":\"EURUSD Cae por la Fed\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-07-16T07:23:44+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-07-16T07:28:47+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/es\\\/eurusd-cae-por-la-fed\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":810,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/es\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/es\\\/eurusd-cae-por-la-fed\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/insights.onequity.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/Technical-Analysis-ES.png\",\"keywords\":[\"An\u00e1lisis Forex\",\"D\u00f3lar Estadounidense\",\"EurUsd\",\"Inflaci\u00f3n de EE. 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