{"id":121342,"date":"2026-07-14T08:28:22","date_gmt":"2026-07-14T06:28:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=121342"},"modified":"2026-07-14T11:03:20","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T09:03:20","slug":"grandes-bancos-evaluan-el-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/grandes-bancos-evaluan-el-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"Grandes Bancos Eval\u00faan el Rally"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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La temporada de resultados del segundo trimestre de 2026 comienza hoy, con los principales bancos de Estados Unidos, entre ellos JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup y Wells Fargo, que tradicionalmente inauguran el ciclo de presentaci\u00f3n de resultados del trimestre de junio el 14 de julio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El contexto macroecon\u00f3mico sigue siendo muy favorable. Se estima que el crecimiento interanual de las ganancias del S&P 500 en el segundo trimestre de 2026 alcance el 23,3 %, frente al 18,8 % de hace tres meses. De confirmarse, ser\u00eda el segundo trimestre consecutivo con un crecimiento de beneficios superior al 20 %, muy por encima del promedio de cinco a\u00f1os (16,4 %) y del promedio de diez a\u00f1os (10,3 %). Esto refleja unos fundamentos s\u00f3lidos que respaldan el actual rally burs\u00e1til, m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de una simple expansi\u00f3n de las valoraciones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El sector financiero tambi\u00e9n ha sido el de mejor desempe\u00f1o durante el \u00faltimo mes. El ETF XLF ha subido un 5,49 % desde el 13 de junio. Los tipos de inter\u00e9s siguen favoreciendo al sector. Al 10 de julio, el rendimiento del bono del Tesoro estadounidense a 10 a\u00f1os se sit\u00faa en torno al 4,62 %, frente al 4,28 % del bono a 2 a\u00f1os, lo que deja el diferencial 2s10s en aproximadamente 34 puntos b\u00e1sicos y mantiene una pendiente positiva. Aunque la curva de rendimientos se ha aplanado durante 2026 tras alcanzar cerca de 73 puntos b\u00e1sicos a comienzos del a\u00f1o, una pendiente positiva sigue favoreciendo la rentabilidad bancaria al mantener una diferencia saludable entre los tipos de los pr\u00e9stamos a largo plazo y los costes de financiaci\u00f3n a corto plazo, respaldando as\u00ed el margen neto de intereses al inicio de la temporada de resultados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bank of America es uno de los grandes bancos mejor posicionados para beneficiarse del entorno actual. Su modelo de negocio diversificado abarca banca de consumo, mercados globales, banca de inversi\u00f3n y gesti\u00f3n patrimonial a trav\u00e9s de Merrill, lo que le proporciona m\u00faltiples fuentes de ingresos relativamente independientes entre s\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
La entidad ha elevado su previsi\u00f3n de crecimiento del ingreso neto por intereses (NII) para todo el a\u00f1o hasta un rango del 6 % al 8 %, y ha reafirmado su expectativa de lograr un apalancamiento operativo positivo superior a 200 puntos b\u00e1sicos en 2026. En el primer trimestre, la rentabilidad sobre el patrimonio tangible com\u00fan (ROTCE) alcanz\u00f3 el 16 %, dentro de su objetivo de medio plazo de entre el 16 % y el 18 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Antes de la publicaci\u00f3n de resultados de hoy, Wall Street espera un beneficio por acci\u00f3n (EPS) de aproximadamente 1,12 d\u00f3lares, lo que supondr\u00eda un crecimiento interanual cercano al 25,5 %, mientras que los ingresos se estiman en unos 30.800 millones de d\u00f3lares. Los inversores seguir\u00e1n de cerca la evoluci\u00f3n del ingreso neto por intereses, los ingresos procedentes de los mercados de capitales y de la actividad de trading, as\u00ed como los indicadores de calidad crediticia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Las acciones de Bank of America han subido un 29 % desde el m\u00ednimo del 19 de marzo, situado en 45,87 d\u00f3lares, y acumulan una ganancia del 21 % desde el 15 de mayo, cuando comenz\u00f3 el \u00faltimo tramo alcista. Actualmente, el valor cotiza cerca de los 59,50 d\u00f3lares, apenas por debajo de su m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico de 60,82 d\u00f3lares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\nGr\u00e1fico Diario de BAC | octubre de 2025 \u2013 Actual<\/strong><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Las l\u00edneas verdes discontinuas destacan el canal ascendente que ha guiado la evoluci\u00f3n del precio desde noviembre de 2023. El canal sigue bien definido y ha sido puesto a prueba al menos tres veces en su l\u00edmite superior, que actualmente se sit\u00faa justo por debajo de los 62 d\u00f3lares. Este representa el pr\u00f3ximo objetivo alcista si el rally contin\u00faa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tomando como referencia los m\u00ednimos del 19 de marzo y del 15 de mayo, varias l\u00edneas de tendencia con diferentes pendientes siguen respaldando el movimiento ascendente. La sesi\u00f3n de ayer volvi\u00f3 a validar con \u00e9xito la l\u00ednea de tendencia m\u00e1s pronunciada, situada cerca de los 58,75 d\u00f3lares. Aunque la tendencia alcista de fondo permanece intacta, el ritmo del avance podr\u00eda empezar a moderarse, permitiendo que la acci\u00f3n consolide sobre l\u00edneas de tendencia menos agresivas. En ese escenario, el precio podr\u00eda volver a la anterior zona de m\u00e1ximos hist\u00f3ricos, entre 56,75 y 57,50 d\u00f3lares, antes de reanudar su movimiento al alza.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
La actividad reciente de las velas japonesas tambi\u00e9n sugiere que el mercado se aproxima a un posible punto de inflexi\u00f3n a corto plazo. Varias sesiones durante el \u00faltimo mes han dejado mechas largas y velas tipo spinning top<\/em>, lo que refleja cierta indecisi\u00f3n entre los compradores. Sin embargo, las fuertes velas alcistas, incluidas las registradas ayer y el 2 de julio, indican que el impulso comprador sigue siendo s\u00f3lido.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Actualmente, el mercado de opciones descuenta un movimiento impl\u00edcito de aproximadamente el 2,78 % tras la publicaci\u00f3n de resultados. Una ca\u00edda de esa magnitud llevar\u00eda a Bank of America cerca del soporte situado en 57,55 d\u00f3lares, mientras que un avance de similar magnitud bastar\u00eda para impulsar la acci\u00f3n hacia nuevos m\u00e1ximos hist\u00f3ricos.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
La temporada de resultados del segundo trimestre de 2026 comienza hoy, con los principales bancos de Estados Unidos, entre ellos […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113481,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[863],"tags":[4595,5286,5285,4380],"class_list":["post-121342","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-technical","tag-analisis-tecnico","tag-bac","tag-bank-of-america","tag-onequity-insights"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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