{"id":119966,"date":"2026-06-24T09:55:11","date_gmt":"2026-06-24T07:55:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=119966"},"modified":"2026-06-24T10:06:52","modified_gmt":"2026-06-24T08:06:52","slug":"brent-borra-la-prima-de-guerra","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/brent-borra-la-prima-de-guerra\/","title":{"rendered":"Brent Borra la Prima de Guerra"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El petr\u00f3leo Brent del Reino Unido ha regresado a niveles cercanos a los que registraba antes del estallido del conflicto en Medio Oriente. El Brent cerr\u00f3 en 73.52 d\u00f3lares el 27 de febrero, frente a su precio actual de 76.70 d\u00f3lares, una diferencia de apenas 4.3%. Esto representa una marcada reversi\u00f3n respecto al per\u00edodo de escalada, cuando los precios llegaron a superar los 120 d\u00f3lares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los acontecimientos m\u00e1s recientes han a\u00f1adido presi\u00f3n adicional sobre el mercado petrolero. M\u00e1s de 11,000 marinos mercantes que permanec\u00edan varados en el Golfo P\u00e9rsico comenzar\u00e1n a transitar nuevamente por el Estrecho de Ormuz tras obtener garant\u00edas de seguridad. La operaci\u00f3n se llevar\u00e1 a cabo en estrecha cooperaci\u00f3n con Ir\u00e1n, Om\u00e1n, otros estados costeros de la regi\u00f3n, Estados Unidos y la industria mar\u00edtima internacional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Se trata de una evoluci\u00f3n positiva tanto para los precios del petr\u00f3leo como para las expectativas globales de inflaci\u00f3n. Adem\u00e1s, el Senado de Estados Unidos aprob\u00f3 una resoluci\u00f3n oficial solicitando el fin del conflicto con Ir\u00e1n. Las implicaciones pr\u00e1cticas y legales de esta resoluci\u00f3n a\u00fan est\u00e1n por definirse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La tasa de inflaci\u00f3n impl\u00edcita a 10 a\u00f1os de Estados Unidos, que refleja las expectativas de inflaci\u00f3n de largo plazo del mercado, ha ca\u00eddo con fuerza desde el 2.50% hasta el 2.20% durante el \u00faltimo mes. Este movimiento tambi\u00e9n se ha reflejado en un fuerte aumento de los rendimientos reales, que han avanzado mucho m\u00e1s que los rendimientos nominales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Las tasas reales contin\u00faan siendo uno de los principales obst\u00e1culos para los metales preciosos y ayudan a explicar la presi\u00f3n observada recientemente en todo el sector. La fortaleza del d\u00f3lar estadounidense ha reforzado esta din\u00e1mica, con el DXY cotizando actualmente en su nivel m\u00e1s alto en un a\u00f1o. Esto refleja un mecanismo cl\u00e1sico de transmisi\u00f3n entre petr\u00f3leo, expectativas de inflaci\u00f3n, rendimientos reales, d\u00f3lar estadounidense y otras clases de activos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Brent y Rendimiento del Tesoro de EE. UU. a 2 A\u00f1os, marzo de 2026 \u2013 Actual<\/strong><\/strong>
Fuente: Bloomberg<\/strong><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un desarrollo particularmente relevante ha sido el cambio en las correlaciones de mercado. Desde marzo hasta mediados de mayo, las tasas de inter\u00e9s de corto plazo en Estados Unidos y los precios del petr\u00f3leo mostraron una correlaci\u00f3n casi perfecta, ya que un petr\u00f3leo m\u00e1s caro implicaba mayores presiones inflacionarias y tasas m\u00e1s elevadas. Sin embargo, esa relaci\u00f3n pr\u00e1cticamente se ha desacoplado por completo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An\u00e1lisis T\u00e9cnico<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La ca\u00edda del Brent comenz\u00f3 el 5 de mayo desde niveles superiores a los 119 d\u00f3lares. Desde entonces, el precio ha retrocedido m\u00e1s de 40 d\u00f3lares, equivalente a una ca\u00edda superior al 35%, en apenas 38 sesiones burs\u00e1tiles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El primer nivel clave en ceder fue 94.91 d\u00f3lares, perforado el 11 de junio mediante una amplia vela bajista tipo Marubozu. Posteriormente, el mercado rompi\u00f3 por debajo de los 87.60 d\u00f3lares, nivel que qued\u00f3 atr\u00e1s tras un gap bajista registrado el 15 de junio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Petr\u00f3leo Brent, Diario, octubre de 2025 \u2013 Actual<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La zona de 73.50 d\u00f3lares se encuentra ahora muy cerca de los niveles actuales. Este nivel corresponde al \u00faltimo cierre registrado antes del inicio del conflicto y coincide adem\u00e1s con una d\u00e9bil l\u00ednea de tendencia alcista originada durante la recuperaci\u00f3n observada a finales de diciembre de 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Por el lado bajista, dos l\u00edneas de tendencia descendentes contin\u00faan siendo relevantes. La m\u00e1s pronunciada se origin\u00f3 el 19 de mayo y ya ha sido validada en tres ocasiones durante este mes. Sin embargo, actualmente se encuentra muy por encima del precio de mercado y solo volver\u00eda a ser relevante si el petr\u00f3leo inicia un rebote sostenido.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Por ahora, la tendencia bajista sigue activa y tratar de anticipar un suelo podr\u00eda no ser la estrategia m\u00e1s s\u00f3lida. Los indicadores t\u00e9cnicos contin\u00faan mostrando debilidad, aunque todav\u00eda no presentan condiciones extremas de sobreventa. Un movimiento hacia los 73.50 d\u00f3lares parece razonable. Una ruptura decisiva por debajo de ese soporte abrir\u00eda la puerta a una ca\u00edda adicional hacia la zona de 69.80 d\u00f3lares, aunque este escenario resulta m\u00e1s dif\u00edcil de justificar desde una perspectiva fundamental.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Al alza, los niveles clave a vigilar se sit\u00faan en 78 d\u00f3lares, seguidos por 81.10 y 85 d\u00f3lares. Por encima de estas zonas, las l\u00edneas de tendencia bajistas previamente identificadas volver\u00edan a cobrar protagonismo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El petr\u00f3leo Brent del Reino Unido ha regresado a niveles cercanos a los que registraba antes del estallido del conflicto […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113481,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[863],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-119966","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-technical"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBrent Borra la Prima de Guerra - 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