{"id":119529,"date":"2026-06-22T10:56:17","date_gmt":"2026-06-22T08:56:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=119529"},"modified":"2026-06-22T11:19:35","modified_gmt":"2026-06-22T09:19:35","slug":"el-gasto-en-ia-supera-los-retornos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/el-gasto-en-ia-supera-los-retornos\/","title":{"rendered":"El Gasto en IA Supera Los Retornos"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El gasto en IA se dispara mientras los retornos se quedan atr\u00e1s<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Los hyperscalers han estado entre los principales impulsores del repunte del mercado accionario durante los \u00faltimos trimestres, respaldados por una ola sin precedentes de inversi\u00f3n en infraestructura de inteligencia artificial. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet y Meta contin\u00faan aumentando agresivamente sus gastos de capital mientras compiten por ampliar la capacidad de c\u00f3mputo y la infraestructura de centros de datos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Se proyecta que el gasto combinado aumente de 410.000 millones de d\u00f3lares en 2025 a aproximadamente 725.000 millones de d\u00f3lares este a\u00f1o, lo que representa un incremento interanual del 77%. Goldman Sachs prev\u00e9 que la inversi\u00f3n podr\u00eda alcanzar 1,1 billones de d\u00f3lares el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o, contribuyendo a m\u00e1s de 5 billones de d\u00f3lares en gasto acumulado entre 2025 y 2030. A esa escala, la inversi\u00f3n anual representar\u00eda alrededor del 3,5% del PIB de Estados Unidos, superando el tama\u00f1o relativo de varios ciclos hist\u00f3ricos de expansi\u00f3n de infraestructura, incluidos el desarrollo ferroviario y la electrificaci\u00f3n nacional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Capex de los hyperscalers<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
La magnitud de esta inversi\u00f3n est\u00e1 ejerciendo una presi\u00f3n cada vez mayor sobre los flujos de caja corporativos. Seg\u00fan Morgan Stanley, se espera que aproximadamente el 94% del flujo de caja generado por estas compa\u00f1\u00edas sea absorbido por los gastos de capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amazon parece particularmente expuesta. Con gastos de capital proyectados de aproximadamente 200.000 millones de d\u00f3lares frente a un flujo de caja operativo de alrededor de 139.000 millones de d\u00f3lares, se espera que la compa\u00f1\u00eda entre en territorio de flujo de caja libre negativo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El ciclo de inversi\u00f3n tambi\u00e9n est\u00e1 impulsando una mayor dependencia de los mercados de deuda. En conjunto, se espera que los hyperscalers recauden aproximadamente 400.000 millones de d\u00f3lares en financiamiento solo este a\u00f1o. Meta emiti\u00f3 recientemente 25.000 millones de d\u00f3lares en deuda, mientras que la deuda a largo plazo de Amazon casi se duplic\u00f3 durante el \u00faltimo a\u00f1o, pasando de 65.600 millones a 119.100 millones de d\u00f3lares. Alphabet tambi\u00e9n ha estado activa en los mercados de capitales, emitiendo 30.000 millones de d\u00f3lares en deuda en febrero, incluido un inusual bono en libras esterlinas a 100 a\u00f1os, mientras que, seg\u00fan informes, recaud\u00f3 otros 80.000 millones de d\u00f3lares mediante emisi\u00f3n de acciones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A pesar de la magnitud de la inversi\u00f3n, los retornos para los accionistas han sido mixtos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
En lo que va del a\u00f1o, Amazon sube un 5,80%, Microsoft cae un 21,48%, Meta retrocede un 12,40%, mientras que Alphabet avanza un 17,41%. Si se observa desde el inicio de 2025, Amazon ha subido un 11,62%, Microsoft ha bajado un 8,74%, Meta ha cedido un 0,64% y Alphabet se ha disparado un 91%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Excluyendo a Alphabet, el desempe\u00f1o burs\u00e1til ha oscilado entre modesto y decepcionante, pese a la extraordinaria escala del despliegue de capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
An\u00e1lisis t\u00e9cnico<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amazon ha vuelto una vez m\u00e1s a probar su l\u00ednea de tendencia ascendente de largo plazo en el gr\u00e1fico semanal, una l\u00ednea que se origin\u00f3 en diciembre de 2022. Aunque fue perforada brevemente en dos ocasiones durante los \u00faltimos 18 meses, primero durante la venta masiva impulsada por los aranceles y luego durante la escalada del conflicto con Ir\u00e1n, el precio ha rebotado de forma constante desde la misma zona, coincidiendo con el soporte clave en 233 d\u00f3lares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMZN, semanal, diciembre de 2022 \u2013 presente<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
En el gr\u00e1fico diario, la ca\u00edda de junio resalta la importancia de la zona de soporte de 233 d\u00f3lares. Los niveles adicionales de soporte se encuentran en 221, 212 y 198 d\u00f3lares. Al alza, la resistencia se ubica en 247,75 d\u00f3lares, seguida de 256 d\u00f3lares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dos l\u00edneas de tendencia descendentes siguen vigentes. La m\u00e1s pronunciada de las dos contin\u00faa limitando la acci\u00f3n del precio y contribuy\u00f3 a una renovada presi\u00f3n vendedora durante las sesiones del mi\u00e9rcoles y viernes. Mientras esta l\u00ednea de tendencia permanezca intacta, el impulso alcista podr\u00eda seguir siendo limitado, pese al \u00faltimo cierre en 244,25 d\u00f3lares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Incluso una ruptura por encima de la l\u00ednea de tendencia descendente dejar\u00eda a Amazon enfrentando una resistencia significativa por encima, tanto en 247,75 como en 256 d\u00f3lares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
AMZN, diario, octubre de 2025 \u2013 presente<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Los indicadores t\u00e9cnicos siguen siendo d\u00e9biles y sugieren que Amazon podr\u00eda tener dificultades para superar al mercado en el corto plazo. Los niveles clave a vigilar siguen siendo 247,75 d\u00f3lares al alza y 233 d\u00f3lares a la baja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El gasto en IA se dispara mientras los retornos se quedan atr\u00e1s Los hyperscalers han estado entre los principales impulsores […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113481,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[863],"tags":[4137,4110,4925,4380,4926],"class_list":["post-119529","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-technical","tag-ai","tag-amazon","tag-hyperscalers","tag-onequity-insights","tag-tech-stocks"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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