{"id":118552,"date":"2026-06-18T09:41:34","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T07:41:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=118552"},"modified":"2026-06-18T09:50:38","modified_gmt":"2026-06-18T07:50:38","slug":"btcxau-cerca-de-soporte-de-largo-plazo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/btcxau-cerca-de-soporte-de-largo-plazo\/","title":{"rendered":"BTCXAU Cerca de Soporte de Largo Plazo"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analizar activos en t\u00e9rminos de oro es una pr\u00e1ctica com\u00fan para evaluar el valor relativo frente a un referente monetario tangible. Expresar la actividad econ\u00f3mica, los activos financieros o las divisas en oro puede ofrecer una perspectiva distinta sobre las tendencias de valoraci\u00f3n a largo plazo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Entre 1944 y 1971, la econom\u00eda global oper\u00f3 bajo el sistema de Bretton Woods, llamado as\u00ed por la ciudad de New Hampshire donde se firm\u00f3 el acuerdo. Bajo este marco, las monedas estaban efectivamente vinculadas al oro, lo que significaba que los gobiernos solo pod\u00edan emitir dinero en la medida en que estuviera respaldado por reservas oficiales de oro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En agosto de 1971, Estados Unidos, bajo la presidencia de Nixon, puso fin a la convertibilidad del d\u00f3lar en oro, allanando el camino para el sistema monetario moderno, en el que el dinero puede crearse sin respaldo directo de activos f\u00edsicos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
PIB de EE. UU. en T\u00e9rminos de Oro, 1930 \u2013 Actualidad<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El gr\u00e1fico del PIB estadounidense medido en oro muestra una ca\u00edda significativa desde principios de los a\u00f1os 2000, con niveles actuales comparables a los observados a mediados de los a\u00f1os 80 e incluso de los a\u00f1os 50.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En los \u00faltimos d\u00edas, Bitcoin, a menudo denominado oro digital, ha vuelto a poner a prueba el nivel cr\u00edtico de 60.000 d\u00f3lares. Muchos inversores de largo plazo esperan que esta zona se convierta en un doble suelo tras una ca\u00edda de algo m\u00e1s del 50% desde su m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Esta comparaci\u00f3n plantea una pregunta importante: \u00bfd\u00f3nde se encuentra actualmente el oro digital en relaci\u00f3n con el oro f\u00edsico y puede esta relaci\u00f3n aportar informaci\u00f3n relevante?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An\u00e1lisis T\u00e9cnico<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La zona de los 60.000 d\u00f3lares se ha consolidado como un nivel de soporte clave. Tambi\u00e9n actu\u00f3 como un importante rango de negociaci\u00f3n entre marzo y octubre de 2024, antes de que Bitcoin recuperara impulso, superara los 100.000 d\u00f3lares y alcanzara m\u00e1ximos cercanos a los 120.000 d\u00f3lares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Medido en onzas troy de oro, un Bitcoin vale actualmente aproximadamente 14.85 onzas, tras haber marcado un m\u00ednimo cercano a 12.25 onzas en febrero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Curiosamente, este es el mismo rango en el que el ratio BTC\/XAU cotiz\u00f3 entre marzo y octubre de 2023, cuando Bitcoin oscilaba entre 25.000 y 30.000 d\u00f3lares, aproximadamente un 50% por debajo de su precio actual. El ratio tambi\u00e9n se negoci\u00f3 en niveles similares en diciembre de 2020 y enero de 2021, cuando Bitcoin rondaba nuevamente los 25.000 d\u00f3lares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Ratio BTC\/XAU, 2020 \u2013 Actualidad<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La ca\u00edda del ratio BTC\/XAU ha sido m\u00e1s pronunciada que la del propio Bitcoin en t\u00e9rminos de d\u00f3lares estadounidenses. El ratio lleg\u00f3 a retroceder un 64% desde su m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico cercano a 41 onzas de oro por Bitcoin en diciembre de 2024 y alrededor de un 59% desde el m\u00e1ximo relativo registrado en agosto de 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lo m\u00e1s relevante es que los niveles actuales se encuentran muy cerca de una importante zona de soporte de largo plazo situada entre aproximadamente 10.70 y 13.70 onzas. Si el an\u00e1lisis t\u00e9cnico puede aplicarse a un instrumento sint\u00e9tico como este ratio, ello sugerir\u00eda que el potencial bajista podr\u00eda ser relativamente limitado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dicho de otro modo, Bitcoin parece relativamente barato cuando se mide frente al oro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aunque sigue siendo incierto si el nivel de 60.000 d\u00f3lares terminar\u00e1 manteni\u00e9ndose, con BTC cotizando actualmente cerca de 63.795 d\u00f3lares, desde una perspectiva de medio plazo podr\u00eda resultar interesante considerar una posici\u00f3n larga en Bitcoin y corta en oro, con el oro negoci\u00e1ndose actualmente alrededor de 4.298 d\u00f3lares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los inversores tambi\u00e9n deben tener en cuenta los costes de financiaci\u00f3n y swaps asociados a mantener ambas posiciones, as\u00ed como los requisitos de margen necesarios para sostener la estrategia. Estos costes operativos pueden acumularse con el tiempo y deben evaluarse cuidadosamente antes de abrir una operaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analizar activos en t\u00e9rminos de oro es una pr\u00e1ctica com\u00fan para evaluar el valor relativo frente a un referente monetario […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113480,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[863],"tags":[3773,4829,4593,4830,4067,4380,4021],"class_list":["post-118552","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-technical","tag-bitcoin-es","tag-btc-xau","tag-btcusd","tag-cryptocurrency","tag-gold","tag-onequity-insights","tag-xauusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBTCXAU Cerca de Soporte de Largo Plazo - 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