{"id":117511,"date":"2026-06-15T10:57:36","date_gmt":"2026-06-15T08:57:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=117511"},"modified":"2026-06-15T11:05:51","modified_gmt":"2026-06-15T09:05:51","slug":"gbpusd-decision-del-boe-en-foco","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/gbpusd-decision-del-boe-en-foco\/","title":{"rendered":"GBPUSD; Decisi\u00f3n del BoE en Foco"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Banco de Inglaterra parece encaminado a mantener las tasas sin cambios en su reuni\u00f3n del 18 de junio, ya que una combinaci\u00f3n de datos m\u00e1s d\u00e9biles ha reducido los argumentos a favor de un endurecimiento inmediato. La inflaci\u00f3n general del Reino Unido cay\u00f3 de 3.3% a 2.8% en abril, situ\u00e1ndose por debajo de las expectativas, mientras que el mercado laboral contin\u00faa deterior\u00e1ndose. El empleo registrado en n\u00f3mina ha disminuido considerablemente y el crecimiento salarial del sector privado se ha desplomado hasta apenas 0.6% anualizado en los \u00faltimos tres meses, muy lejos del 8% observado en 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La encuesta Decision Maker Panel del propio BoE, dirigida a directores financieros, refuerza este panorama. Las expectativas de inflaci\u00f3n a un a\u00f1o han disminuido, las expectativas de crecimiento salarial han ca\u00eddo a un m\u00ednimo desde 2022 de 3.4%, y las empresas reportan una capacidad mucho menor para trasladar aumentos de costos a precios en comparaci\u00f3n con crisis energ\u00e9ticas anteriores. Adem\u00e1s, los futuros del gas natural \u2014principal factor detr\u00e1s de las facturas energ\u00e9ticas de los hogares brit\u00e1nicos\u2014 permanecen relativamente contenidos, apuntando a un aumento de 12\u201313% en el tope tarifario de Ofgem en julio, seguido por una posible ca\u00edda de 7\u20138% en octubre. Esto sugiere que la inflaci\u00f3n podr\u00eda alcanzar un m\u00e1ximo ligeramente inferior al 4%, en lugar de mantenerse sostenidamente por encima de ese nivel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sin embargo, julio sigue siendo una fecha clave, independientemente de si los precios energ\u00e9ticos empeoran o evolucionan de forma m\u00e1s favorable. Si el petr\u00f3leo vuelve a superar los 100\u2013110 d\u00f3lares por barril y el gas natural se aproxima a 70 euros\/MWh hacia el cuarto trimestre, la inflaci\u00f3n general podr\u00eda alcanzar aproximadamente 4.3% a comienzos del pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si se confirman los reportes de anoche sobre un acuerdo entre Estados Unidos e Ir\u00e1n para poner fin al conflicto y reabrir el Estrecho de Ormuz, cuya firma se espera para el pr\u00f3ximo viernes, las implicaciones para el BoE ser\u00edan significativas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para entender su importancia, conviene recordar que en abril el Banco de Inglaterra present\u00f3 tres escenarios energ\u00e9ticos: \u201cEscenario A\u201d (favorable), \u201cEscenario B\u201d (disrupci\u00f3n moderada) y \u201cEscenario C\u201d (disrupci\u00f3n severa y prolongada que requerir\u00eda un endurecimiento activo). Hasta la semana pasada, los mercados ya descontaban el \u201cEscenario B\u201d, consistente con mantener la tasa bancaria en 3.75% sin nuevas subidas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Una reapertura sostenida del estrecho devolver\u00eda las condiciones hacia el m\u00e1s benigno \u201cEscenario A\u201d, donde pr\u00e1cticamente desaparecer\u00eda cualquier argumento para una subida adicional de tasas. No obstante, el Comit\u00e9 de Pol\u00edtica Monetaria a\u00fan incluye miembros claramente hawkish, como Megan Greene, Catherine Mann y Huw Pill, quienes han expresado repetidamente su preocupaci\u00f3n por los efectos de segunda ronda de la inflaci\u00f3n sobre salarios y precios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aun as\u00ed, la fragilidad de la econom\u00eda brit\u00e1nica sigue argumentando en contra de un ciclo prolongado de endurecimiento monetario. El mercado laboral se debilita, el crecimiento salarial cae con rapidez y, salvo una ruptura del acuerdo, una pausa prolongada parece hoy m\u00e1s probable que una subida en julio. Bajo ese escenario, las primeras discusiones sobre futuros recortes de tasas en 2027 podr\u00edan surgir antes de lo que actualmente anticipan los mercados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An\u00e1lisis T\u00e9cnico<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A pesar de este panorama macroecon\u00f3mico poco alentador, la libra esterlina ha evitado un desempe\u00f1o significativamente inferior al de sus pares y se ha mantenido relativamente alineada con el d\u00f3lar estadounidense. Hasta el cierre del viernes pasado, acumulaba una ca\u00edda de apenas 0.33% frente al USD y ha superado al euro, que retrocede 1.03% frente a la libra desde comienzos de a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Fuerza Relativa, Divisas, 2026<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemos comentado en m\u00faltiples ocasiones los amplios rangos de largo plazo en los que se han movido las principales divisas europeas frente al d\u00f3lar estadounidense. En el caso de GBPUSD, los l\u00edmites principales se sit\u00faan en 1.3175 y 1.3725, con niveles intermedios relevantes en 1.3325 por abajo y 1.3550 por arriba. En las \u00faltimas sesiones, el par ha rebotado desde la zona de 1.3325 tras intentar formar un doble suelo relativo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Esta semana est\u00e1 cargada de reuniones de bancos centrales, comenzando con el Banco de Jap\u00f3n durante la noche, seguido por la Reserva Federal el jueves y culminando con la propia \u201cOld Lady\u201d, el Banco de Inglaterra, el viernes. Es probable que aumente la volatilidad alrededor de estos anuncios, aunque por ahora mantenemos nuestra perspectiva t\u00e9cnica, incluso si puede parecer relativamente moderada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
GBPUSD, Diario, mayo 2025 \u2013 Actual<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Esperamos que GBPUSD intente nuevamente alcanzar la zona de 1.3550, con una resistencia inicial ubicada en 1.3470 (precio actual: 1.3450). Solo si esa resistencia no logra romperse al alza de forma decisiva consideramos posible una nueva ca\u00edda, con soporte inicial en 1.3390 y posteriormente un nuevo test de 1.3325, nivel que podr\u00eda eventualmente ceder si es puesto a prueba por tercera vez en apenas unas semanas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El Banco de Inglaterra parece encaminado a mantener las tasas sin cambios en su reuni\u00f3n del 18 de junio, ya […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113481,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[863],"tags":[4595,4738,3932,4740,4739,4380,4737],"class_list":["post-117511","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-technical","tag-analisis-tecnico","tag-banco-de-inglaterra","tag-gbpusd","tag-inflacion-del-reino-unido","tag-libra-esterlina","tag-onequity-insights","tag-tasas-de-interes"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGBPUSD; 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