{"id":117431,"date":"2026-06-12T07:50:51","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T05:50:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=117431"},"modified":"2026-06-12T09:31:56","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T07:31:56","slug":"maiz-bajo-presion-por-mayor-oferta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/maiz-bajo-presion-por-mayor-oferta\/","title":{"rendered":"Ma\u00edz Bajo Presi\u00f3n por Mayor Oferta"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El informe WASDE de junio de 2026 del Departamento de Agricultura de Estados Unidos ofreci\u00f3 poco apoyo para los mercados de granos. Los futuros del ma\u00edz cayeron a nuevos m\u00ednimos contractuales despu\u00e9s de que el informe aportara pocas sorpresas y dejara a los traders frente a la misma realidad fundamental: la abundante oferta sigue pesando m\u00e1s que las presiones inflacionarias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El panorama general resulta especialmente relevante. Las materias primas agr\u00edcolas, incluido el ma\u00edz, el trigo, la soja, el algod\u00f3n y el caf\u00e9, han mantenido una tendencia bajista incluso mientras la inflaci\u00f3n se ha acelerado en la econom\u00eda en general. Esta divergencia desaf\u00eda la idea convencional de que el aumento de los precios al consumidor deber\u00eda respaldar autom\u00e1ticamente a los mercados alimentarios y agr\u00edcolas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En el caso del ma\u00edz, la explicaci\u00f3n sigue estando impulsada principalmente por la oferta. El USDA proyecta inventarios iniciales globales para 2026\/27 por encima de los 303 millones de toneladas m\u00e9tricas y una producci\u00f3n superior a los 1.300 millones de toneladas m\u00e9tricas, ambas cifras revisadas al alza respecto a las estimaciones de mayo. Esta combinaci\u00f3n apunta a un mercado en el que la abundancia de oferta contin\u00faa dominando la din\u00e1mica de precios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El ma\u00edz ha sido uno de los activos con peor desempe\u00f1o. El contrato de julio alcanz\u00f3 su precio de cierre m\u00e1s alto de 2026 el 4 de mayo, en 4,85\u00be d\u00f3lares por bushel. Desde entonces, las condiciones clim\u00e1ticas favorables y el s\u00f3lido avance de la siembra han generado una presi\u00f3n vendedora sostenida, llevando los precios a m\u00ednimos de cuatro meses cerca de los 4,32 d\u00f3lares por bushel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El avance de la siembra en Estados Unidos lleg\u00f3 aproximadamente al 93% a finales de mayo, muy por encima del promedio de cinco a\u00f1os. La emergencia del cultivo tambi\u00e9n super\u00f3 las normas estacionales, con un 76%, lo que indica una cosecha temprana y ampliamente establecida.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Se espera que las temperaturas c\u00e1lidas de principios de junio aceleren a\u00fan m\u00e1s el desarrollo del cultivo, mientras que las lluvias adicionales en el oeste del Corn Belt han mejorado la humedad del suelo y reforzado las expectativas de rendimientos s\u00f3lidos. Actualmente, el 67% del cultivo de ma\u00edz en los principales estados productores est\u00e1 calificado como bueno a excelente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Por el lado de la demanda, el informe WASDE ofreci\u00f3 poco respaldo. El USDA mantuvo sin cambios su proyecci\u00f3n de inventarios finales de ma\u00edz de nueva cosecha en 1.960 millones de bushels y conserv\u00f3 su previsi\u00f3n de precio agr\u00edcola promedio de la temporada en 4,40 d\u00f3lares por bushel. Mientras tanto, las estimaciones de uso de ma\u00edz para la producci\u00f3n de etanol en 2025\/26 fueron revisadas a la baja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Con condiciones clim\u00e1ticas favorables, una siembra adelantada y el USDA manteniendo proyecciones optimistas de oferta, la presi\u00f3n bajista sobre los precios del ma\u00edz podr\u00eda persistir durante el verano, salvo que condiciones clim\u00e1ticas adversas alteren de forma significativa las expectativas de producci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An\u00e1lisis T\u00e9cnico<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El ma\u00edz, que en nuestra plataforma cotiza en centavos de d\u00f3lar estadounidense, rompi\u00f3 el 29 de mayo por debajo de la l\u00ednea de tendencia alcista que hab\u00eda sostenido los precios desde agosto de 2025, en 467 centavos. Lo que sigui\u00f3 fue una r\u00e1pida ca\u00edda hasta el m\u00ednimo de ayer en 431,95 centavos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Ma\u00edz, Diario, abril 2025 \u2013 Actual<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Esta zona podr\u00eda actuar como un \u00e1rea de soporte temporal, aproximadamente entre 423 y 433 centavos, lo que representa un rango cercano al 2,5%. Dentro de esta zona, es razonable esperar cierta toma de ganancias por parte de los vendedores en corto e intentos de acumulaci\u00f3n por parte de compradores que podr\u00edan considerar estos niveles como atractivos, especialmente si se tiene en cuenta que, como se mencion\u00f3 anteriormente, la previsi\u00f3n de precio promedio de temporada del USDA se sit\u00faa en torno a los 440 centavos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dicho esto, creemos que existe una posibilidad realista de otro tramo bajista. La siguiente zona de soporte importante se encuentra algo m\u00e1s abajo, entre 400 y 408 centavos. Los indicadores t\u00e9cnicos siguen debilit\u00e1ndose, pero a\u00fan no han alcanzado territorio de sobreventa. Mientras tanto, las medias m\u00f3viles de 21 y 50 d\u00edas completaron recientemente un cruce bajista.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En resumen, creemos que la ca\u00edda actual podr\u00eda experimentar una desaceleraci\u00f3n o pausa temporal no muy lejos de los niveles actuales antes de reanudar su trayectoria descendente en las pr\u00f3ximas semanas, con un posible objetivo en la zona de soporte inferior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El informe WASDE de junio de 2026 del Departamento de Agricultura de Estados Unidos ofreci\u00f3 poco apoyo para los mercados […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113481,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[863],"tags":[4595,4659,4708,4710,4380,4711],"class_list":["post-117431","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-technical","tag-analisis-tecnico","tag-inflacion","tag-maiz","tag-mercados-de-materias-primas","tag-onequity-insights","tag-usda-wasde"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMa\u00edz Bajo Presi\u00f3n por Mayor Oferta - 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