{"id":117251,"date":"2026-06-10T09:37:27","date_gmt":"2026-06-10T07:37:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=117251"},"modified":"2026-06-10T09:58:46","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T07:58:46","slug":"xauusd-extiende-caidas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/xauusd-extiende-caidas\/","title":{"rendered":"XAUUSD Extiende Ca\u00eddas"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El oro no ha logrado recuperarse tras alcanzar su m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico el pasado 29 de enero en $5,596.70. Al momento de escribir este informe, XAUUSD cotiza cerca de $4,183, dejando al metal un 25.3% por debajo de ese m\u00e1ximo. Este movimiento ha llevado al oro m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de una correcci\u00f3n y lo ha situado firmemente en un mercado bajista.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A\u00f1os de compras por parte de bancos centrales contribuyeron al prolongado avance del oro. Los vol\u00famenes de compra aumentaron significativamente a partir del tercer trimestre de 2022, cuando las adquisiciones oficiales pasaron de 158.6 toneladas a 459.9 toneladas en comparaci\u00f3n con el trimestre anterior. Como suele ocurrir, la fase final especulativa impuls\u00f3 un movimiento parab\u00f3lico que termin\u00f3 dejando a muchos inversionistas expuestos cerca de los m\u00e1ximos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La narrativa de activo refugio tampoco ha logrado sostener los precios. A pesar de las guerras, la inestabilidad y la incertidumbre global, 2026 ha estado marcado por una presi\u00f3n vendedora persistente sobre el metal precioso. Las tasas de inter\u00e9s reales de largo plazo contin\u00faan elevadas y siguen aumentando, alcanzando esta ma\u00f1ana 2.195%, mientras que la tasa de inflaci\u00f3n impl\u00edcita a 10 a\u00f1os se sit\u00faa en 2.33%. Sin embargo, estos niveles no son significativamente distintos a los observados en oto\u00f1o de 2023, cuando el oro cotizaba cerca de $1,900.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An\u00e1lisis T\u00e9cnico<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La principal se\u00f1al positiva para los compradores de oro es que el m\u00ednimo del 23 de marzo en $4,099 a\u00fan no ha sido perforado. M\u00e1s all\u00e1 de eso, el panorama t\u00e9cnico sigue siendo d\u00e9bil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Gold, Diario, noviembre 2025 \u2013 Actual<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La fuerte ca\u00edda registrada a comienzos de primavera provoc\u00f3 un descenso abrupto tras varias sesiones consecutivas de p\u00e9rdidas. Sin embargo, el metal logr\u00f3 recuperarse r\u00e1pidamente y cerr\u00f3 la jornada en $4,407.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ese nivel ahora ha perdido relevancia como soporte. Ya se han registrado cuatro cierres diarios por debajo de $4,407 y, m\u00e1s importante a\u00fan, por debajo de $4,365. Actualmente consideramos a $4,365 como el nivel clave a vigilar. Actu\u00f3 como una resistencia clara en octubre de 2025 y, hasta hace poco, hab\u00eda funcionado como soporte, sin que ninguna sesi\u00f3n de este a\u00f1o cerrara por debajo de \u00e9l.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La tendencia bajista tambi\u00e9n permanece completamente vigente. Desde el 7 de mayo, XAUUSD ha testeado varias veces la l\u00ednea de tendencia descendente, pero ha sido incapaz de romperla al alza.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El patr\u00f3n previo de consolidaci\u00f3n, ya sea interpretado como un tri\u00e1ngulo o una bandera, parece haber roto de forma decisiva a la baja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A pesar de la ca\u00edda del 25% desde los m\u00e1ximos, nuestra visi\u00f3n sobre el oro sigue siendo bajista. Los niveles de $4,100 y posteriormente $3,890 deber\u00edan actuar como zonas de soporte relevantes. Estas \u00e1reas podr\u00edan desacelerar la ca\u00edda o provocar pausas temporales, pero por ahora no modifican la estructura bajista predominante.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Gold, Diario, mayo 2022 \u2013 Actual<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En un horizonte de tiempo m\u00e1s amplio, el riesgo de precios significativamente m\u00e1s bajos sigue siendo real. No puede descartarse la posibilidad de que, dentro de varios meses, potencialmente durante 2027, el primer d\u00edgito del precio del oro deje de ser un 4 y pase a ser un 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ese escenario implicar\u00eda un potencial bajista adicional cercano a $1,000 por onza troy desde los niveles actuales.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El oro no ha logrado recuperarse tras alcanzar su m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico el pasado 29 de enero en $5,596.70. Al momento […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113481,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[863],"tags":[4667,4595,4666,4380,3991,4668,4021],"class_list":["post-117251","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-technical","tag-activos-refugio","tag-analisis-tecnico","tag-metales-preciosos","tag-onequity-insights","tag-oro","tag-rendimientos-reales","tag-xauusd"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nXAUUSD Extiende Ca\u00eddas - OnEquity<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/xauusd-extiende-caidas\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"XAUUSD Extiende Ca\u00eddas - OnEquity\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"El oro no ha logrado recuperarse tras alcanzar su m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico el pasado 29 de enero en $5,596.70. 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