{"id":117167,"date":"2026-06-08T08:53:31","date_gmt":"2026-06-08T06:53:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=117167"},"modified":"2026-06-08T10:19:46","modified_gmt":"2026-06-08T08:19:46","slug":"eurusd-ante-la-decision-del-bce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/eurusd-ante-la-decision-del-bce\/","title":{"rendered":"EURUSD ante la Decisi\u00f3n del BCE"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Se espera ampliamente que el Banco Central Europeo eleve las tasas de inter\u00e9s en 25 puntos b\u00e1sicos durante la reuni\u00f3n del pr\u00f3ximo jueves, llevando la tasa principal de refinanciaci\u00f3n de 2.15% a 2.40%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Esta expectativa no se basa en especulaci\u00f3n, sino en los precios de mercado. Los mercados de futuros y derivados descuentan actualmente una probabilidad del 100% de un aumento de 25 puntos b\u00e1sicos. Cualquier resultado diferente representar\u00eda una sorpresa significativa y probablemente provocar\u00eda una volatilidad considerable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tan recientemente como a finales de 2025, el BCE manten\u00eda una orientaci\u00f3n acomodaticia. La inflaci\u00f3n se encontraba cerca del objetivo y las discusiones se centraban principalmente en posibles recortes de tasas. La escalada del conflicto en Oriente Medio cambi\u00f3 r\u00e1pidamente ese panorama. El aumento de los precios de la energ\u00eda oblig\u00f3 a una reevaluaci\u00f3n de las expectativas inflacionarias, impulsando un marcado giro hawkish dentro del Consejo de Gobierno.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Este cambio fue se\u00f1alado inicialmente en las minutas de marzo y reforzado durante la reuni\u00f3n de abril, cuando varios responsables de pol\u00edtica monetaria indicaron que habr\u00edan apoyado una subida inmediata de tasas si la opci\u00f3n hubiese sido considerada formalmente. Las preocupaciones por repetir los errores de pol\u00edtica de 2022, cuando el BCE retras\u00f3 su respuesta hasta que la inflaci\u00f3n ya hab\u00eda superado el 8%, contin\u00faan influyendo en la toma de decisiones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La subida de 25 puntos b\u00e1sicos ya est\u00e1 completamente descontada por los mercados. La atenci\u00f3n se ha desplazado hacia la trayectoria de la pol\u00edtica monetaria m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de junio. Los swaps OIS descuentan actualmente aproximadamente 46 puntos b\u00e1sicos adicionales de endurecimiento durante el resto de 2026. Esto sugiere que los inversionistas consideran probable una segunda subida de tasas m\u00e1s adelante este a\u00f1o, aunque la convicci\u00f3n sigue siendo limitada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los recientes datos de inflaci\u00f3n reforzaron el argumento a favor de una pol\u00edtica monetaria m\u00e1s restrictiva. La estimaci\u00f3n preliminar de mayo mostr\u00f3 que el IPC general de la eurozona aument\u00f3 hasta 3.2%, el nivel m\u00e1s alto desde septiembre de 2023. La inflaci\u00f3n subyacente aceler\u00f3 de 2.2% a 2.5%, superando las expectativas y sugiriendo que las presiones inflacionarias se est\u00e1n extendiendo m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de los precios de la energ\u00eda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La inflaci\u00f3n de servicios aument\u00f3 a 3.5%, mientras que la inflaci\u00f3n de bienes industriales no energ\u00e9ticos tambi\u00e9n registr\u00f3 avances. Las encuestas empresariales realizadas durante abril y mayo mostraron que las expectativas de precios de venta alcanzaron sus niveles m\u00e1s elevados en varios a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Durante la conferencia de prensa de abril, el BCE se comprometi\u00f3 a reevaluar su postura una vez disponibles las nuevas proyecciones macroecon\u00f3micas de junio. Aunque casi la mitad de los componentes de inflaci\u00f3n de la eurozona contin\u00faan creciendo por debajo del 1%, los responsables de pol\u00edtica monetaria siguen siendo especialmente sensibles al riesgo de quedarse rezagados frente a la inflaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La estrategia actual del BCE parece centrarse en equilibrar el control de la inflaci\u00f3n con la necesidad de evitar una presi\u00f3n adicional sobre una econom\u00eda ya fr\u00e1gil. En escenarios m\u00e1s adversos, se proyecta que el crecimiento del PIB de la eurozona se desacelere hasta apenas 0.7% en 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Como resultado, las autoridades han mantenido deliberadamente abierta la posibilidad de una segunda subida de tasas en septiembre, evitando al mismo tiempo comprometerse con un ciclo de endurecimiento m\u00e1s amplio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La comunicaci\u00f3n ser\u00e1, por tanto, fundamental. Un mensaje percibido como excesivamente hawkish podr\u00eda llevar a los mercados a descontar un endurecimiento mucho mayor al que realmente pretende el BCE, endureciendo a\u00fan m\u00e1s las condiciones financieras. Por el contrario, un tono demasiado dovish podr\u00eda perjudicar la credibilidad del banco central en su lucha contra la inflaci\u00f3n en un momento de fuerte escrutinio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An\u00e1lisis T\u00e9cnico<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tras el informe de N\u00f3minas No Agr\u00edcolas de Estados Unidos del viernes pasado, m\u00e1s fuerte de lo esperado, los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro aumentaron, una tendencia que ha continuado a medida que avanzan los precios del petr\u00f3leo. La fortaleza resultante del d\u00f3lar estadounidense empuj\u00f3 al EURUSD por debajo del nivel de 1.1600, poniendo fin al rango de negociaci\u00f3n vigente desde el 15 de mayo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despu\u00e9s de caer hasta un m\u00ednimo intrad\u00eda de 1.1506 m\u00e1s temprano hoy, el par logr\u00f3 una recuperaci\u00f3n moderada y actualmente cotiza cerca de 1.1530.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
EURUSD, Diario, mayo 2025 \u2013 Actual<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La estructura t\u00e9cnica general permanece intacta. Desde junio de 2025, EURUSD ha operado dentro de un rango relativamente amplio de aproximadamente 350 a 400 pips, con soporte cerca de 1.1445 y resistencia alrededor de 1.1815. Desde comienzos de 2026, el par ha desarrollado una secuencia de m\u00e1ximos descendentes. El repunte hasta 1.2082 en enero result\u00f3 finalmente de corta duraci\u00f3n y no logr\u00f3 alterar la estructura lateral predominante.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Considerando el contexto macroecon\u00f3mico actual, el movimiento bajista en curso parece estar acerc\u00e1ndose a su etapa final. Un nuevo test de la zona de 1.1430 sigue siendo posible, mientras que una ca\u00edda hacia 1.1400 no puede descartarse, especialmente ante la volatilidad esperada durante la conferencia de prensa del BCE del jueves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A mediano plazo, se espera una recuperaci\u00f3n del EURUSD. La resistencia inicial se encuentra cerca de 1.1600, seguida por una barrera m\u00e1s importante alrededor de 1.1650, donde probablemente aparecer\u00e1 resistencia de una l\u00ednea de tendencia descendente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mirando hacia las pr\u00f3ximas semanas e incluso hacia finales del verano, EURUSD podr\u00eda eventualmente regresar por encima de 1.1700 a medida que la atenci\u00f3n del mercado se desplace m\u00e1s all\u00e1 del actual ciclo de endurecimiento monetario.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Se espera ampliamente que el Banco Central Europeo eleve las tasas de inter\u00e9s en 25 puntos b\u00e1sicos durante la reuni\u00f3n […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113481,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[863],"tags":[4641,3839,4642,4640,4013,3759,4022,4206,4380],"class_list":["post-117167","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-technical","tag-banco-central-europeo","tag-cpi-es","tag-decision-de-tasas-del-bce","tag-dolar-estadounidense","tag-ecb","tag-euro-es","tag-eurusd","tag-forex","tag-onequity-insights"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEURUSD ante la Decisi\u00f3n del BCE - 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