Las elecciones locales del 7 de mayo asestaron un golpe s\u00edsmico al gobierno de Keir Starmer, del que la recuperaci\u00f3n parece lejos de ser sencilla. El Partido Laborista perdi\u00f3 1.121 concejales y el control de 28 ayuntamientos, mientras que Reform UK obtuvo 1.257 esca\u00f1os y tom\u00f3 el control de 10 consejos. Mientras tanto, los Verdes lograron avances hist\u00f3ricos, incluyendo victorias en varios distritos de Londres. Las consecuencias pol\u00edticas fueron inmediatas y severas: alrededor de 30 diputados laboristas pidieron p\u00fablicamente un cambio de liderazgo o un calendario para la dimisi\u00f3n de Starmer, mientras que el secretario de Salud, Wes Streeting, renunci\u00f3 al gabinete afirmando que hab\u00eda \u201cperdido la confianza\u201d en su liderazgo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Para los mercados financieros, la preocupaci\u00f3n es menos sobre las personalidades y m\u00e1s sobre lo que podr\u00eda venir en la pol\u00edtica fiscal. Un nuevo l\u00edder laborista \u2014y por tanto un nuevo primer ministro\u2014 probablemente implicar\u00eda tambi\u00e9n un nuevo ministro de Hacienda. Bajo presi\u00f3n para mover al partido m\u00e1s hacia la izquierda, este podr\u00eda adoptar una postura fiscal m\u00e1s expansiva, lo que implicar\u00eda reglas fiscales m\u00e1s flexibles y mayor endeudamiento. El pr\u00f3ximo Presupuesto de oto\u00f1o no se presentar\u00e1 hasta octubre o noviembre y, por ahora, el d\u00e9ficit del ejercicio fiscal 2025 todav\u00eda parece situarse en el 4,3 %, por debajo de la estimaci\u00f3n del 4,5 % de la Oficina de Responsabilidad Presupuestaria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El mercado de bonos brit\u00e1nicos, sin embargo, ya se encontraba en una situaci\u00f3n fr\u00e1gil. Los rendimientos a 10 a\u00f1os superaron el 5 % por primera vez desde 2008, mientras que el rendimiento a 30 a\u00f1os alcanz\u00f3 su nivel m\u00e1s alto desde 1998. Este movimiento ha sido impulsado por una combinaci\u00f3n de las ambiciones de gasto del Partido Laborista, una inflaci\u00f3n persistente y presiones de oferta derivadas del programa continuo de endurecimiento cuantitativo del Banco de Inglaterra, actualmente en torno a 100.000 millones de libras al a\u00f1o. Las comparaciones con el mini presupuesto de Liz Truss de septiembre de 2022 han sido inevitables, pero existen diferencias importantes. La demanda de compradores extranjeros se mantiene s\u00f3lida y, crucialmente, el actual aumento de los rendimientos ha sido gradual en lugar de un shock repentino como el episodio de 2022, que se vio agravado por una crisis de liquidez en los fondos de pensiones. La venta actual tambi\u00e9n parece estar m\u00e1s impulsada por factores globales, con rendimientos al alza en las principales econom\u00edas y el shock energ\u00e9tico en Oriente Medio como principal catalizador, en lugar de una p\u00e9rdida espec\u00edfica de credibilidad fiscal en el Reino Unido.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El crecimiento subyacente del PIB se sit\u00faa por debajo de las estimaciones del Banco de Inglaterra, mientras que la tasa de desempleo subi\u00f3 al 4,9 % en el periodo de diciembre de 2025 a febrero de 2026 y se prev\u00e9 que aumente hasta el 5,1 % en el segundo trimestre de 2026. Sin embargo, la ca\u00edda de la inflaci\u00f3n interanual al 2,8 % esta ma\u00f1ana fue una sorpresa muy positiva para el banco central. En cualquier caso, las expectativas del mercado sobre la pol\u00edtica monetaria est\u00e1n cambiando hacia un ciclo de flexibilizaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s corto y prudente. Algunos de los recortes de tipos previamente esperados ya no est\u00e1n completamente descontados, mientras que una peque\u00f1a minor\u00eda de participantes incluso comienza a considerar la posibilidad de una subida. En \u00faltima instancia, la direcci\u00f3n depender\u00e1 de si el reciente shock de precios energ\u00e9ticos resulta transitorio y, sobre todo, de cu\u00e1nta incertidumbre pol\u00edtica genere la temporada del Presupuesto de oto\u00f1o en un mercado de deuda p\u00fablica ya inestable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Pero, \u00bfc\u00f3mo est\u00e1n reaccionando la libra esterlina y el GBPUSD a todo esto? En realidad, sigue cotizando en gran medida de forma lateral, como lo ha hecho desde abril de 2025, principalmente dentro de un amplio rango de 1,3150\u20131,3650, donde el mercado parece haber encontrado un equilibrio temporal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
GBPUSD, Diario, marzo de 2025 – actualidad<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dentro de este rango, dos niveles adicionales parecen particularmente importantes: 1,3325 y 1,3500. Ambos han desempe\u00f1ado un papel clave en la reciente acci\u00f3n del precio, que ha visto a la libra debilitarse desde una prueba de la zona de 1,3650 hasta el nivel actual de 1,3382 (-0,05 % hoy). El nivel de 1,35 hab\u00eda actuado efectivamente como soporte durante abril, y su ruptura empuj\u00f3 al par hasta 1,3325 en solo dos sesiones antes de un modesto rebote esta semana. A menudo se habla de informaci\u00f3n privilegiada en el mercado, y quiz\u00e1 alguien ya hab\u00eda anticipado correctamente los datos de inflaci\u00f3n de esta ma\u00f1ana.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dicho esto, a pesar del aumento de los rendimientos en el tramo largo de la curva, desde una perspectiva t\u00e9cnica creemos que el movimiento bajista del GBPUSD podr\u00eda continuar hacia la zona previamente mencionada, justo por debajo de 1,32 en los pr\u00f3ximos d\u00edas, aunque \u2014como siempre\u2014 mucho depender\u00e1 del d\u00f3lar estadounidense. La situaci\u00f3n tampoco cambia demasiado frente al euro, donde, una vez m\u00e1s, el par ha permanecido comprimido dentro de un rango durante varios meses, en este caso aproximadamente entre 0,86 y 0,8750 (0,8663 actualmente).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Las elecciones locales del 7 de mayo asestaron un golpe s\u00edsmico al gobierno de Keir Starmer, del que la recuperaci\u00f3n […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113481,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[863],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-116431","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-technical"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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