{"id":115830,"date":"2026-05-18T09:13:16","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T07:13:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=115830"},"modified":"2026-05-18T09:44:48","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T07:44:48","slug":"agricultura-al-centro-del-acuerdo-trump-china","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/agricultura-al-centro-del-acuerdo-trump-china\/","title":{"rendered":"Agricultura al Centro del Acuerdo Trump\u2013China"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

El presidente Trump regres\u00f3 la semana pasada de una cumbre comercial de dos d\u00edas en Pek\u00edn con Xi Jinping, destacando lo que describi\u00f3 como un acuerdo agr\u00edcola hist\u00f3rico. La Casa Blanca anunci\u00f3 que China acord\u00f3 comprar al menos $17 mil millones anuales en productos agr\u00edcolas estadounidenses hasta 2028.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La soja sigue siendo el eje central del acuerdo. Trump afirm\u00f3 que China se comprometi\u00f3 a comprar 12 millones de toneladas m\u00e9tricas en la actual campa\u00f1a y 25 millones anuales durante los pr\u00f3ximos tres a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La magnitud del acuerdo refleja un fuerte cambio en los flujos comerciales. Las importaciones chinas de productos agr\u00edcolas estadounidenses alcanzaron $38 mil millones en 2022, pero cayeron a solo $8 mil millones en 2025. Las compras de soja descendieron de casi $18 mil millones a apenas $3 mil millones tras la paralizaci\u00f3n de adquisiciones durante la guerra arancelaria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El mercado global de soja est\u00e1 concentrado en pocos actores. En oferta, Estados Unidos, Brasil y Argentina representan la mayor parte de la producci\u00f3n mundial. Brasil super\u00f3 a EE. UU. como principal exportador durante la \u00faltima d\u00e9cada, alterando estructuralmente la din\u00e1mica de precios. Aunque el Medio Oeste estadounidense sigue siendo una de las regiones agr\u00edcolas m\u00e1s eficientes, ahora enfrenta competencia directa de los ciclos productivos sudamericanos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En demanda, China domina el comercio global, representando hist\u00f3ricamente entre 60% y 65% de las importaciones mundiales. La demanda proviene principalmente de su sector ganadero y de la industria de biocombustibles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los precios de la soja dependen de m\u00faltiples factores. El clima\u2014especialmente los ciclos de El Ni\u00f1o y La Ni\u00f1a\u2014sigue siendo determinante para los rendimientos sudamericanos. Tambi\u00e9n influyen los precios energ\u00e9ticos, el d\u00f3lar estadounidense y el spread de crushing entre soja y productos derivados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Las relaciones comerciales entre EE. UU. y China contin\u00faan siendo un factor clave para el mercado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El equilibrio global de oferta y demanda se sigue a trav\u00e9s del informe mensual WASDE del USDA. Tras m\u00e1s de un a\u00f1o de demanda china deprimida, el posible regreso de compras a gran escala podr\u00eda marcar un punto de inflexi\u00f3n importante. Sin embargo, la diferencia entre compromisos pol\u00edticos y vol\u00famenes reales de embarque seguir\u00e1 siendo crucial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AN\u00c1LISIS T\u00c9CNICO<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La salida de China del mercado estadounidense se refleja claramente en el comportamiento de los futuros de soja. Los precios cayeron de forma constante tras alcanzar un m\u00e1ximo de 1,785 centavos por bushel en junio de 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Soybean, Diario, Jun 2021 \u2013 Actual<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El mercado marc\u00f3 un m\u00ednimo en agosto de 2024 cerca de 956 centavos, nivel testeado varias veces posteriormente, formando una s\u00f3lida zona de soporte. Tras el \u00faltimo test en agosto de 2025, los precios rompieron la directriz bajista de largo plazo, se\u00f1alando un cambio de momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los precios avanzaron hacia la parte alta del rango cerca de 1,075 centavos y lograron romperla, dando inicio a una tendencia alcista que llev\u00f3 recientemente al mercado hacia 1,195 centavos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Actualmente, el precio consolida dentro de un canal ascendente tras probar la parte superior del rango. La consolidaci\u00f3n ocurre despu\u00e9s de varios tests de la resistencia clave entre 1,225 y 1,255 centavos, nivel vigente desde 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Desde los niveles actuales cercanos a 1,185 centavos, las zonas de soporte m\u00e1s importantes son 1,157 y 1,134 centavos, niveles relevantes entre febrero y julio de 2024. Estas \u00e1reas podr\u00edan ofrecer oportunidades de entrada, especialmente considerando el respaldo reciente del contexto geopol\u00edtico.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En general, la estructura t\u00e9cnica sigue favoreciendo un nuevo test de la resistencia en 1,255 centavos, con potencial adicional alcista si el momentum se mantiene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El presidente Trump regres\u00f3 la semana pasada de una cumbre comercial de dos d\u00edas en Pek\u00edn con Xi Jinping, destacando […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113481,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[863],"tags":[4347,4144,4330,4344,4297,4346],"class_list":["post-115830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-technical","tag-agricultural","tag-commodities-es-tag","tag-onequityinsights","tag-soybean","tag-technicalanalysis","tag-us-china-trade"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAgricultura al Centro del Acuerdo Trump\u2013China - 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