La trayectoria monetaria de Jap\u00f3n en 2026 es, posiblemente, la m\u00e1s relevante entre las econom\u00edas del G7. Tras d\u00e9cadas de deflaci\u00f3n, el pa\u00eds atraviesa ahora un ciclo inflacionario impulsado por la demanda, respaldado por un crecimiento sostenido de los salarios, lo que ha llevado a una respuesta gradual pero clara por parte del Banco de Jap\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El BoJ ha reafirmado que es probable que persista un ciclo de aumentos moderados de salarios y precios, con una probabilidad creciente de alcanzar de forma sostenible su objetivo de inflaci\u00f3n del 2%. Las negociaciones salariales de primavera (Shunto) han generado incrementos significativos por tercer a\u00f1o consecutivo, proporcionando una base fundamental para un mayor endurecimiento de la pol\u00edtica monetaria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
En su reuni\u00f3n de abril, el BoJ mantuvo los tipos sin cambios en el 0,75%, pero revis\u00f3 al alza su previsi\u00f3n de inflaci\u00f3n subyacente hasta el 2,8%. Al mismo tiempo, redujo su proyecci\u00f3n de crecimiento para el a\u00f1o fiscal 2026 al 0,5%, reflejando la presi\u00f3n de los elevados precios del petr\u00f3leo sobre los m\u00e1rgenes empresariales y los ingresos reales de los hogares. Esto introduce una din\u00e1mica moderada de estanflaci\u00f3n, complicando el calendario de futuras subidas de tipos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
La curva de los bonos del gobierno japon\u00e9s refuerza este cambio. Las expectativas de un mayor endurecimiento, junto con las preocupaciones fiscales bajo la postura expansiva de la primera ministra Takaichi, han impulsado el rendimiento del JGB a 10 a\u00f1os por encima del 2,5% por primera vez desde 1997. El tramo largo de la curva sigue empin\u00e1ndose ante el aumento de las preocupaciones sobre la sostenibilidad de la deuda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
La zona euro inici\u00f3 2026 en una senda desinflacionaria. La inflaci\u00f3n general cay\u00f3 al 1,7% en enero, apoyada por una moderaci\u00f3n del crecimiento salarial, mientras el Banco Central Europeo conclu\u00eda un ciclo de recortes que llev\u00f3 la tasa de dep\u00f3sito a aproximadamente el 2,15%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Esta trayectoria cambi\u00f3 tras el resurgimiento de tensiones geopol\u00edticas en Oriente Medio. En abril, la inflaci\u00f3n se aceler\u00f3 hasta el 3%, su nivel m\u00e1s alto desde septiembre de 2023, impulsada principalmente por un aumento del 10,9% en los precios de la energ\u00eda. La presi\u00f3n inflacionaria se ha extendido a las principales econom\u00edas, incluyendo Alemania, Francia, Espa\u00f1a e Italia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A pesar de ello, la din\u00e1mica salarial se mantiene contenida. El indicador salarial del BCE se\u00f1ala un crecimiento negociado del 2,6% en 2026, frente al 3,0% en 2025 y muy por debajo de los m\u00e1ximos posteriores a la pandemia. Aunque las expectativas de inflaci\u00f3n a corto plazo han aumentado con fuerza, las de largo plazo permanecen ancladas cerca del 2%. Esto explica la decisi\u00f3n del BCE de mantener los tipos estables en lugar de reanudar el endurecimiento.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Si el BoJ avanza con nuevas subidas de tipos en la segunda mitad del a\u00f1o y se acerca al 1%, con una trayectoria a largo plazo hacia su tasa neutral estimada del 1,5%, el diferencial de tipos con la zona euro se reducir\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Como resultado, el carry trade que ha respaldado al EURJPY probablemente comenzar\u00e1 a deshacerse gradualmente, generando presi\u00f3n bajista sobre el par.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Los participantes del mercado est\u00e1n mostrando cada vez menos tolerancia a una mayor debilidad del yen. Los niveles por encima de 160 frente al d\u00f3lar estadounidense est\u00e1n bajo estrecha vigilancia y ya han provocado m\u00faltiples intervenciones, incluyendo un episodio notable hace dos semanas. Dada la fortaleza relativa del euro frente al d\u00f3lar en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os, esto corresponde aproximadamente al rango de 186 a 187 en el EURJPY.<\/p>\n\n\n\nEURJPY, Diario, Feb 2025 \u2013 Actual<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Las intervenciones del 30 de abril y la acci\u00f3n m\u00e1s moderada del 5 de mayo se reflejan claramente en dos grandes velas bajistas en el gr\u00e1fico diario. Incluso en ausencia de intervenci\u00f3n, el precio ha rechazado repetidamente el nivel de 186,50, con fuertes retrocesos hacia 182 el 23 de enero y 180,75 el 9 de febrero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Estos niveles siguen siendo cr\u00edticos. M\u00e1s importante a\u00fan, la tendencia alcista iniciada en febrero de 2025 parece haberse roto. Esto sugiere una desaceleraci\u00f3n del impulso alcista. Aunque no implica necesariamente una reversi\u00f3n inmediata, suele preceder una fase de consolidaci\u00f3n que eventualmente puede resolverse a la baja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El precio est\u00e1 actualmente probando la media m\u00f3vil de 50 d\u00edas y cotiza por debajo de la media m\u00f3vil de 21 d\u00edas, mientras que el MACD ha girado a negativo. Aunque las posiciones largas en yen siguen siendo poco atractivas desde la perspectiva del carry, el contexto macro y t\u00e9cnico m\u00e1s amplio sugiere que este factor podr\u00eda volverse menos relevante.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
El yen japon\u00e9s podr\u00eda estar acerc\u00e1ndose a una fase no vista desde 2017, caracterizada por estabilizaci\u00f3n y una posible recuperaci\u00f3n de fortaleza.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
La trayectoria monetaria de Jap\u00f3n en 2026 es, posiblemente, la m\u00e1s relevante entre las econom\u00edas del G7. Tras d\u00e9cadas de […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113479,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[863],"tags":[4317,4027,3759,4206,4316,3910],"class_list":["post-115736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-technical","tag-currencymarkets","tag-eurjpy","tag-euro-es","tag-forex","tag-fxmarket","tag-stocks-es-tag"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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