{"id":115664,"date":"2026-05-13T08:36:19","date_gmt":"2026-05-13T06:36:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=115664"},"modified":"2026-05-13T11:08:48","modified_gmt":"2026-05-13T09:08:48","slug":"euraud-cae-por-divergencia-de-politica","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/es\/euraud-cae-por-divergencia-de-politica\/","title":{"rendered":"EURAUD cae por Divergencia de Pol\u00edtica"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EURAUD contin\u00faa reflejando la creciente divergencia entre las perspectivas macroecon\u00f3micas de la eurozona y Australia, mientras pol\u00edtica monetaria, energ\u00eda y materias primas siguen impulsando el comportamiento relativo de ambas divisas. Mientras Europa enfrenta menor crecimiento y fuerte sensibilidad energ\u00e9tica, Australia contin\u00faa benefici\u00e1ndose de una actividad dom\u00e9stica resiliente y del soporte de las materias primas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La eurozona depende ampliamente de importaciones energ\u00e9ticas, quedando expuesta a shocks de commodities. Australia, en cambio, es una econom\u00eda exportadora de recursos que se beneficia de precios elevados en energ\u00eda, hierro y gas natural licuado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Esta divergencia se ha intensificado en 2026. La econom\u00eda australiana creci\u00f3 2.6% interanual en el cuarto trimestre, su ritmo m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido en dos a\u00f1os. Al mismo tiempo, el BCE redujo su proyecci\u00f3n de crecimiento para la eurozona a 0.9% en 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Las tensiones geopol\u00edticas en Medio Oriente han reforzado este desequilibrio. Los altos precios energ\u00e9ticos favorecen los t\u00e9rminos de intercambio de Australia, mientras afectan m\u00e1rgenes corporativos y consumo en Europa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La pol\u00edtica monetaria sigue siendo el principal motor bajista de EURAUD. El Banco de la Reserva de Australia elev\u00f3 tasas a 4.35%, en su tercera subida consecutiva del a\u00f1o. La inflaci\u00f3n australiana se mantiene elevada, con expectativas de que el IPC alcance 4.8% a mediados de 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En contraste, el BCE mantiene tasas sin cambios dentro de un entorno de estanflaci\u00f3n. Las expectativas de inflaci\u00f3n fueron revisadas al alza hacia 2.7%, mientras el crecimiento sigue d\u00e9bil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El diferencial de rendimiento entre bonos australianos y europeos se ampli\u00f3 hacia 130 puntos b\u00e1sicos, reforzando la presi\u00f3n bajista sobre EURAUD. Mientras no mejoren las condiciones energ\u00e9ticas europeas o el RBA cambie postura, el sesgo sigue siendo bajista.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AN\u00c1LISIS T\u00c9CNICO<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EURAUD se aproxima a una zona cr\u00edtica de soporte entre 1.6150 y 1.6000. Hist\u00f3ricamente, esta \u00e1rea ha proporcionado un soporte s\u00f3lido, manteniendo al precio por encima de este rango durante gran parte de 2023 y 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Por debajo, el siguiente nivel clave aparece cerca de 1.5300, con soporte intermedio en 1.5860.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
EURAUD, Diario, Jul 2025 \u2013 Actual<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Tras marcar un m\u00ednimo en 1.6127 el 11 de marzo, el par rebot\u00f3 hacia 1.6800 antes de retomar la ca\u00edda. El nivel de 1.6450 sigue siendo una referencia relevante.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los indicadores t\u00e9cnicos mantienen sesgo bajista. Las medias m\u00f3viles apuntan a la baja y mantienen un cruce negativo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Otro test de 1.6150 parece probable, con el par cotizando cerca de 1.6219. La reacci\u00f3n en esta zona ser\u00e1 clave para definir direcci\u00f3n. Un posible doble suelo podr\u00eda impulsar una correcci\u00f3n hacia la media de 21 d\u00edas en 1.6325 y la de 50 d\u00edas en 1.6420.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sin embargo, tanto el contexto macroecon\u00f3mico como la estructura t\u00e9cnica contin\u00faan favoreciendo riesgos bajistas. Una ruptura del soporte podr\u00eda abrir el camino hacia 1.6000 y posteriormente 1.5860, mientras que movimientos futuros determinar\u00e1n si un descenso m\u00e1s profundo hacia 1.5300 gana probabilidad.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EURAUD contin\u00faa reflejando la creciente divergencia entre las perspectivas macroecon\u00f3micas de la eurozona y Australia, mientras pol\u00edtica monetaria, energ\u00eda y […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113481,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[863],"tags":[4296,4013,4207,4295,4009,4297],"class_list":["post-115664","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-technical","tag-australiandollar","tag-ecb","tag-euraud","tag-eurozone","tag-rba","tag-technicalanalysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEURAUD cae por Divergencia de Pol\u00edtica - 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