{"id":98445,"date":"2025-08-19T09:58:44","date_gmt":"2025-08-19T09:58:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/?p=37588"},"modified":"2025-08-22T11:25:53","modified_gmt":"2025-08-22T11:25:53","slug":"dollar-falls-modestly-before-jackson-hole-euro-gains-momentum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/ar\/dollar-falls-modestly-before-jackson-hole-euro-gains-momentum\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Falls Modestly Ahead of Jackson Hole, Euro Gains Momentum"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The U.S. dollar edged lower Tuesday, giving back early gains as caution prevailed following the White House summit on Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At 04:40 ET (08:40 GMT), the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, slipped 0.1% to 97.920 after modest overnight gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Dollar Trades in Narrow Range<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

U.S. President Donald Trump assured President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday that Washington would help safeguard Ukraine\u2019s security in any deal aimed at ending the war with Russia. While this was viewed positively, uncertainty remains high, particularly as no ceasefire has been reached and Ukraine\u2019s air force reported that Russia launched 270 drones and 10 missiles overnight in one of its largest offensives this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main obstacle continues to be the territory seized by Russia, which Ukraine insists must be returned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAlthough the path to peace in Ukraine appears somewhat clearer after last Friday\u2019s and Monday\u2019s summits, markets remain cautious. This is reasonable, as the most difficult negotiations\u2014especially over land disputes\u2014are still to come,\u201d analysts at ING noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beyond geopolitics, traders are focused on the Federal Reserve\u2019s Jackson Hole Symposium later this week, with Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to deliver remarks on Friday. Ahead of this, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, one of two dissenters who supported a rate cut at last month\u2019s meeting, is set to speak today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets are currently pricing in an 83% probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed\u2019s September meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe expect the dollar to soften as we approach tomorrow\u2019s FOMC minutes\u2014the risk is more than two members signaling openness to cuts\u2014and Jackson Hole,\u201d ING added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Euro Strengthens After Peace Discussions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In Europe, EUR\/USD rose 0.1% to 1.1677, supported by the meeting of European leaders in Washington to advance Ukraine peace talks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe see potential upside in EUR\/USD for the rest of the week. A move back above 1.1700 remains possible before Friday,\u201d ING said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, if a deal is reached that shifts more responsibility onto European nations, relief rallies could trigger capital outflows from the euro and sterling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GBP\/USD climbed 0.1% to 1.3520 ahead of key inflation data due Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe anticipate both headline and services inflation accelerating, to 3.7% and 4.8% respectively,\u201d ING stated. \u201cThis should reinforce the market\u2019s recent hawkish adjustment in the Sonia curve. Bets on another rate cut before year-end briefly fell below 50% yesterday, now standing at 14 basis points.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Muted Trading in Asia<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In Asia, USD\/JPY eased 0.1% to 147.67, USD\/CNY edged down to 7.1828, and AUD\/USD slipped 0.1% to 0.6485 in subdued trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors remain cautious, balancing geopolitical risks tied to Russia-Ukraine developments with expectations for guidance from the Federal Reserve\u2019s Jackson Hole Symposium.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The U.S. dollar edged lower Tuesday, giving back early gains as caution prevailed following the White House summit on Ukraine. 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