{"id":63939,"date":"2024-08-13T11:44:47","date_gmt":"2024-08-13T11:44:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hub.onequity.com\/?p=3082"},"modified":"2024-08-13T11:44:47","modified_gmt":"2024-08-13T11:44:47","slug":"dollar-rises-in-light-of-ppi-pound-rises-on-wage-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/ar\/dollar-rises-in-light-of-ppi-pound-rises-on-wage-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Rises in Light of PPI, Pound Rises on Wage Data"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The U.S. dollar traded within a narrow range as traders awaited the July Producer Price Index (PPI) data, the first of the week\u2019s inflation data, as a roadmap for future monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Dollar Awaits PPI Data<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Producer Price Index, which measures changes in producer prices, is expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month in July, which would mean an annual increase of 2.3%, down from 2.6% last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The underlying figure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is also expected to rise by 0.2% on a monthly basis, down from 0.4% in June, with an annual increase of 2.7%, down from 3.0%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Analysts expect a consensus figure of 0.2% month-on-month for both the core and underlying measures, which could ease market jitters about potential CPI\/PCE hikes that might otherwise harm risk sentiment, just as global stock indices recover from recent losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Wednesday, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released, which is also expected to indicate a slight cooling of inflation in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors will scrutinize the data to determine whether the Fed will implement a 50 basis point or a 25 basis point cut at its September meeting. According to CME&#8217;s FedWatch tool, traders are evenly split between the two options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the end of last month, the Fed kept the policy rate in the same 5.25%-5.50% range where it has been for more than a year, although it indicated that a rate cut could be generated in September if inflation continues to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Pound Rises on Wage Growth<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Turning to Europe, GBP\/USD rose 0.3% to 1.2801 following the release of data showing that UK wage growth excluding bonuses rose by around 5.4% in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although this figure is a fall from the revised 5.8% last month, it is still above the estimated 4.6% growth and signals that the Bank of England will struggle if it wants to curb inflation completely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, UK grocery inflation rose for the first time since March last year, with market researcher Kantar reporting that annual grocery price inflation was 1.8% in the four weeks to August 4, up from 1.6% in the previous four-week period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>EUR\/USD fell about 0.1% to 1.0922, with the euro losing slightly after consumer prices in Spain fell 0.5% in July, resulting in a 2.8% annual rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The European Central Bank began cutting interest rates in June, and many expect policymakers to agree to another reduction in September, particularly as inflation shows signs of dissipating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Yen Loses Ground<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Turning to Asia, USD\/JPY rose 0.4% to 147.81, with the yen losing ground on a Reuters report that the Japanese parliament is planning to hold a special session on August 23 to discuss the central bank&#8217;s decision last month to raise interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week, the yen strengthened to near the 141 level on increased safe-haven demand and a reversal of carry trades, although doubts remain about the Bank of Japan&#8217;s room for further rate hikes in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>USD\/CNY fell about 0.1% to 7.1704, with industrial production data and retail sales expected later this week.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The U.S. dollar traded within a narrow range as traders awaited the July Producer Price Index (PPI) data, the first [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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