{"id":62479,"date":"2024-05-07T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-05-07T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hub.onequity.com\/?p=1622"},"modified":"2024-05-07T09:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-05-07T09:00:00","slug":"outlook-for-this-weeks-most-important-economic-events-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/ar\/outlook-for-this-weeks-most-important-economic-events-4\/","title":{"rendered":"Outlook for This Week\u2019s Most Important Economic Events"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><em>Key points to watch out for:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>BoE meeting on Thursday, with little chance of a rate cut announcement<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Reserve Bank of Australia looks likely to maintain a bullish stance for longer.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bank of Japan presents a summary of views<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Still no interest rate cuts from the Bank of England<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The UK economy has emerged from the deep recession it faced last year and has finally entered a recovery process.&nbsp;Business surveys indicate solid growth in the first quarter and even stronger momentum for the second quarter, bolstered by a pickup in consumer spending and resilient wage growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The downside of this economic resurgence is that inflation remains strongly elevated.&nbsp;With the core CPI rate above 4% in March, business surveys suggest a potential acceleration in the coming months as companies start raising prices to cushion consumers from rising costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As things stand, it is unlikely that the Bank of England will signal an immediate rate cut when it concludes its meeting on Thursday, May 9th, which&nbsp;would reflect stubborn inflation pressures.&nbsp;This outcome would not surprise investors, who currently expect the first rate cut in August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Should the message be that rate cuts are still a long way off, it could directly benefit the pound, although the biggest reaction from the currency market may depend on the new economic estimates and votes within the Committee.&nbsp;Last time, one member voted in favor of an immediate cut. However, given the recent positive data, this official might vote to leave rates unchanged this time.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, the outlook for sterling appears quite optimistic.&nbsp;So far this year, the pound has lost about 1.5% against the U.S. dollar, but it has gained a similar percentage against the euro and nearly 7% against the plunging yen.&nbsp;Thus, predictions of higher rates for an extended period have supported sterling, although this effect has not been evident against the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another factor supporting the pound has been risk sentiment in equity markets, given their strong link to global risk conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If these factors persist, the currency could strengthen, particularly against the yen and the euro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition to the Bank of England meeting, first-quarter GDP figures will be released on Friday, May 10th, potentially showing that economic growth rebounded after a slight contraction at the year\u2019s end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Reserve Bank of Australia unlikely to move<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In Australia, the Reserve Bank will conclude its meeting early on Tuesday, May 7th. Given the latest economic data, it is unlikely that policymakers will take any further action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>During the first quarter, consumer and producer inflation were much higher than expected, signaling that the economic recovery may be slower than the Bank anticipated.&nbsp;The strength of the labor market&nbsp;serves to reinforce that thinking, in addition to the rapid increase in housing prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Likewise, early signs of recovery in China\u2019s manufacturing sector are encouraging for Australia, which relies heavily on exporting raw materials to the Asian nation.&nbsp;Over time, this could further boost Australia\u2019s economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Considering all factors, the RBA has no reason to change its neutral stance during the meeting.&nbsp;It might adopt a slightly harsher tone, though announcing another rate hike is unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A neutral stance on interest rates would leave the Australian dollar largely influenced by global risk appetite and developments in China.&nbsp;In that regard, China\u2019s latest trade data, due on Thursday, May 9th, could be crucial for the currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bank of Japan to release a summary of&nbsp;views<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Japanese government has intervened in the currency market to&nbsp;buy the falling yen, pushing the currency about 3% higher last week. That said, the main factors that moved the yen to its lowest levels in 30 years&nbsp;remain, raising doubts about the sustainability of the&nbsp;recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the yen is to register a real turnaround, interest rate differentials must come down, either&nbsp;through a rate cut by the Federal Reserve or a hike by the Bank of Japan.&nbsp;However, this seems unlikely to happen in the coming months, so the yen may remain under pressure, even if foreign exchange interventions help to prevent it from reaching new lows.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This Thursday, May 9th, the Bank of Japan will present the summary of views from its April meeting, which&nbsp;will provide hints on the possible timing of the future rate hike, along with&nbsp;the latest domestic wage figures.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, in Canada, April employment statistics will be released on Friday, May 10th.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key points to watch out for: Still no interest rate cuts from the Bank of England The UK economy has [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[628,2882],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-62479","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analysis","category-weekly-outlook"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Outlook for This Week\u2019s Most Important Economic Events - OnEquity<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This week&#039;s economic calendar features key central bank meetings from the Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, and Bank of Japan. 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