{"id":117499,"date":"2026-06-15T10:57:36","date_gmt":"2026-06-15T08:57:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/?p=117499"},"modified":"2026-06-15T10:57:40","modified_gmt":"2026-06-15T08:57:40","slug":"gbpusd-boe-decision-in-focus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/ar\/gbpusd-boe-decision-in-focus\/","title":{"rendered":"GBPUSD; BoE Decision in Focus"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bank of England looks set to keep rates on hold at its June 18 meeting, as a confluence of softer data has eroded the case for immediate tightening. UK headline inflation fell from 3.3% to 2.8% in April, coming in below consensus, while the labour market continues to deteriorate. Payrolled employment has dropped sharply, and private-sector wage growth has collapsed to just 0.6% annualised over the past three months, a far cry from the 8% seen in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The BoE\u2019s own Decision Maker Panel survey of CFOs reinforces the picture: one-year CPI expectations are down, expected pay growth has hit a post-2022 low of 3.4%, and firms report far less pricing power than during previous energy shocks. Crucially, natural gas futures\u2014the key driver of British household energy bills\u2014have remained remarkably subdued, pointing to a 12\u201313% rise in the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) price cap in July but a potential 7\u20138% fall in October, keeping inflation likely to peak just below 4% rather than move sustainably above that level. The cap is the limit Ofgem sets on the unit rates and standing charges that energy suppliers can charge households for gas and electricity, and it is updated quarterly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet July remains very much in play, whether energy prices deteriorate further or move in a more favourable direction. Should oil push back above $100\u2013110\/bbl and natural gas climb to around \u20ac70\/MWh by Q4, headline CPI could peak at around 4.3% early next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If last night\u2019s reports that the United States and Iran have reached an agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz are confirmed by the signing expected next Friday and followed by effective implementation, the implications for the BoE would be significant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To better understand why this matters, it helps to recall that back in April the BoE outlined three energy-price scenarios: \u201cScenario A\u201d (benign), \u201cScenario B\u201d (moderate disruption), and \u201cScenario C\u201d (severe and prolonged disruption requiring active tightening). Until last week, markets were already pricing in the Bank\u2019s \u201cScenario B\u201d\u2014moderate disruption, broadly consistent with simply holding Bank Rate at 3.75% without additional hikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A durable reopening of the strait would push conditions back toward the even more benign \u201cScenario A\u201d, where the case for any rate hike would essentially disappear. That said, it is worth remembering that the Monetary Policy Committee still includes several hawks\u2014such as Megan Greene, Catherine Mann, and Huw Pill\u2014who have repeatedly expressed concern about the risk of second-round inflation effects feeding through wages and prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even so, the broader fragility of the UK economy argues strongly against a sustained tightening cycle. The labour market is weak, wage growth is falling sharply, and barring a breakdown in the agreement, a prolonged pause now looks more likely than a July hike. In that scenario, the first tentative discussions about a return to rate cuts in 2027 may come sooner than markets currently expect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technical Analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Against this far-from-encouraging macroeconomic backdrop, the pound has nonetheless avoided underperforming its peers and has broadly kept pace with the U.S. dollar. It is down just 0.33% against the USD as of last Friday\u2019s settlement and has outperformed the euro, which has declined 1.03% against sterling since the start of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Relative Strength, Currencies, 2026<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have discussed many times the long-term trading ranges in which the major European currencies (including the UK) have been moving against the U.S. dollar. In the case of GBP\/USD, the key boundaries lie at 1.3175 and 1.3725, with important intermediate levels at 1.3325 on the downside and 1.3550 on the upside. The pair has been rebounding from the 1.3325 area in recent sessions after attempting to form a relative double bottom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week is packed with central bank meetings, beginning with the Bank of Japan overnight, followed by the Federal Reserve on Thursday and culminating with the Old Lady herself\u2014the Bank of England\u2014on Friday. Volatility is likely around the key policy announcements, but at the time of writing we remain committed to our technical outlook, even if it may appear somewhat uneventful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
GBPUSD, Daily, May 2025 \u2013 Present<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We therefore expect GBP\/USD to attempt another test of 1.3550, with initial resistance located at 1.3470 (current price: 1.3450). Only if that resistance fails to break decisively higher do we see scope for another move lower, with first support at 1.3390 and then a renewed test of 1.3325, which could potentially give way if tested for a third time within the space of just a few weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Bank of England looks set to keep rates on hold at its June 18 meeting, as a confluence of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":113474,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[2932],"tags":[4734,3932,4733,4380,4736,3760,4735],"class_list":["post-117499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical","tag-bank-of-england","tag-gbpusd","tag-interest-rates","tag-onequity-insights","tag-pound-sterling","tag-technical-analysis-es","tag-uk-inflation"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGBPUSD; 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