{"id":111798,"date":"2026-03-26T07:48:29","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T07:48:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/?p=50941"},"modified":"2026-05-06T14:39:36","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T12:39:36","slug":"microsoft-msft-under-sustained-pressure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/ar\/microsoft-msft-under-sustained-pressure\/","title":{"rendered":"Microsoft (MSFT) Under Sustained Pressure"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Microsoft shares have shed roughly 30% from their all-time highs, reached intraday on October 28 last year at $551.43, making MSFT the worst-performing name among the Magnificent Seven over the past six months\u2014with the stock now off to its worst start to a year since 2008.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The sell-off is not a reflection of deteriorating fundamentals per se\u2014fiscal Q2 revenue came in at $81.3 billion, up 17% year-over-year, with diluted EPS surging 60% to $5.16\u2014but rather a market re-rating driven by a widening gap between AI spending and monetisation. Capital expenditures reached $37.5 billion in the quarter alone, two-thirds of which went into short-lived assets such as GPUs and CPUs, up from $64.6 billion for the entirety of fiscal 2025. Investors are increasingly questioning the return profile of this spend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Compounding the concern, OpenAI\u2014which accounts for 45% of Azure\u2019s backlog\u2014was expected to share IP that would fast-track Microsoft\u2019s AI competitiveness against Google, but that arrangement has not visibly enhanced Copilot\u2019s performance. This has forced the company to increase spending on its own R&D while consuming internal Azure capacity that could otherwise generate customer revenue. Meanwhile, broader fears that generative AI could render Microsoft\u2019s high-margin enterprise software suite obsolete have led analysts to re-rate the earnings multiple, accelerating the sell-off into 2026. In short, the market entered this cycle pricing in accelerating growth; what it got was stabilising Azure expansion and a capex trajectory that shows no signs of moderating\u2014a combination that has consistently weighed on sentiment and kept the stock under pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The best way to appreciate the magnitude of MSFT\u2019s move ($370.42) is to start from a long-term chart\u2014specifically a five-year view\u2014where two key trendlines supporting the stock\u2019s rally since 2020 become evident. The more recent and steeper trendline, originating in August 2022 around $213, now appears to have been decisively broken. The breakdown occurred around $395 on March 19 (following an initial failed attempt on February 23), which is clearly a negative signal. This is particularly concerning because the less steep trendline, dating back to 2020, currently lies much lower, around the $310 area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In between, there is an intermediate support level (highlighted with blue dashed lines) at $365.75, as well as a more significant support at $345. On the upside, $384 has just been lost and is now likely to act as a strong resistance level. Meanwhile, price action continues to develop within a clearly defined downtrend, and indicators\u2014although somewhat reset\u2014are not yet in oversold territory, nor do they show clear signs of divergence or reversal.<\/p>\n\n\n\nMSFT, !h, Oct 2025 – Now<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Zooming into a shorter timeframe, down to the one-hour chart, and focusing on the decline that began in late October, it appears there may still be further downside potential toward a range between $365 and $345 (more likely toward the lower end). This would imply additional downside of approximately 5%\u20137.5%. When the stock eventually finds buying interest, price action will also face resistance from the steeper internal trendline within the channel\u2014the same one that rejected prices in early March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The only constructive signal at this stage is that, on the one-hour timeframe, early signs of a potential (albeit premature) reversal are beginning to emerge in the indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That said, with a stock like this, the old adage still applies: \u201cnever try to catch a falling knife.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Microsoft shares have shed roughly 30% from their all-time highs, reached intraday on October 28 last year at $551.43, making […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":104002,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[2932],"tags":[1014,1333,1201,1199,646],"class_list":["post-111798","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical","tag-ai","tag-equities","tag-microsoft","tag-msft","tag-stocks-tag"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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