{"id":108513,"date":"2026-02-03T00:26:02","date_gmt":"2026-02-03T00:26:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/?p=47656"},"modified":"2026-05-06T15:14:07","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T13:14:07","slug":"rba-signals-february-rate-hike-as-inflation-pressures-intensify","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/insights.onequity.com\/ar\/rba-signals-february-rate-hike-as-inflation-pressures-intensify\/","title":{"rendered":"RBA Signals February Rate Hike"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely anticipated to raise its benchmark interest rate by <strong>25 basis points to 3.85%<\/strong> at its February policy meeting, marking its first rate increase in more than two years as inflation accelerates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The decision is scheduled for <strong>Tuesday at 03:30 GMT<\/strong>, alongside the release of the <strong>Monetary Policy Statement (MPS)<\/strong> and updated quarterly economic forecasts. RBA Governor <strong>Michele Bullock<\/strong> will then address the media at <strong>04:30 GMT<\/strong>, offering crucial guidance on the future path of monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Financial markets are bracing for <strong>heightened volatility in the Australian Dollar (AUD)<\/strong> as traders assess whether the central bank is preparing for a broader tightening cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>RBA set to defy global easing trend<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If delivered, the February rate hike would place the RBA at odds with the broader global shift toward looser monetary policy, underscoring Australia\u2019s growing inflation challenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Governor Bullock has made the central bank\u2019s stance clear. Speaking after the December policy meeting, she emphasized that the RBA would act decisively if inflation failed to cool, stating that <strong>persistent price pressures would be addressed at the February board meeting<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent inflation data has strengthened that case. According to the <strong>Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)<\/strong>, the <strong>monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI)<\/strong> climbed to <strong>3.8% in December<\/strong>, up from <strong>3.4% in November<\/strong> and exceeding market expectations of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Core inflation has also remained stubborn. The <strong>trimmed mean CPI<\/strong>, the RBA\u2019s preferred inflation gauge, rose <strong>0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q4<\/strong>, beating forecasts of a 0.8% increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Markets and banks align on rate hike expectations<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Following the stronger-than-expected inflation figures, money markets lifted the probability of a February rate hike to <strong>73%<\/strong>, up from around 60% previously, according to Reuters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Australia\u2019s major lenders have also revised their outlook. <strong>ANZ, Westpac, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, and NAB<\/strong> now all expect the RBA to deliver a quarter-point hike this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Labor market data further supports the hawkish shift. The <strong>unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% in December<\/strong>, its lowest level since May, while net employment surged by <strong>65,200 jobs<\/strong>, reversing November\u2019s sharp contraction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What the RBA decision means for AUD\/USD<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>AUD\/USD pair<\/strong> faces two-sided risks heading into the RBA announcement, with direction likely to hinge on Governor Bullock\u2019s tone and the central bank\u2019s updated forecasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A <strong>hawkish message<\/strong>, signaling the possibility of additional rate hikes, could reignite upside momentum in the Aussie dollar. Conversely, if the RBA frames the move as a one-off adjustment and downplays future tightening, the currency could come under renewed pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>AUD\/USD is currently trading below the <strong>0.7000 psychological level<\/strong>, consolidating after retreating from a <strong>three-year high of 0.7094<\/strong>. While the <strong>14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI)<\/strong> has cooled from overbought conditions, it remains near <strong>60<\/strong>, suggesting the broader bullish bias is still intact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A hawkish outcome could push the pair back toward <strong>0.7050<\/strong>, with resistance at <strong>0.7094<\/strong> and <strong>0.7158<\/strong>. On the downside, a dovish surprise may open the door toward <strong>0.6900<\/strong>, followed by <strong>0.6850<\/strong>, with <strong>0.6800<\/strong> acting as a critical support zone.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely anticipated to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":108514,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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